Retirement delay is gradually approaching, and this time there should be no more "fantasy shot".
A series of gradual delayed retirement policies, including flexible retirement, have matured, and the time for their introduction is just around the corner.
According to the timetable established by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, 2021 will be the best time window for implementing delayed retirement.
"Slow steps, flexible implementation, and enhanced incentives" are the central government's latest set of reforms to delay retirement.
Recently, the “Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China <Recommendations> Hundred Questions on Learning and Guidance” published by the People’s Publishing House recently stated that delaying retirement will adhere to the combination of unified regulations and voluntary choices, and make small gradual adjustments to reduce social shock. Get more support.
Delaying retirement is one of the most concerned and discussed public policies in my country. However, under the pressure of aging, delaying retirement has become an inevitable choice to deal with the impact of population aging, alleviate labor supply shortage, and curb the rapid rise of population dependency ratio. .
In addition to gradually extending the retirement age, flexible retirement that emphasizes incentives has also entered the vision of decision-makers.
This also means that the mandatory retirement system that has been implemented in our country for more than 70 years or will gradually withdraw from the stage of history. In the future, the government only needs to set the age for receiving the statutory pension, and the people can choose when to retire according to their own circumstances.
Delayed retirement plan for dystocia
The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Term Goals for 2035" proposes to "implement a gradual delay in the legal retirement age."
In fact, as early as in July 2016, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "13th Five-Year Plan" outline, already proposed to formulate a gradual delay in retirement age plan.
According to the timetable determined at that time, the specific plan for delaying retirement will be officially announced to the public in 2017 and is expected to be officially implemented in 2021.
Although the final plan did not come as agreed during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, according to China Business News, the relevant departments did formulate a relatively well-formed plan at that time, that is, raising the age by one year approximately every three years.
The basic principle of the plan is: take small steps slowly, gradually extend the retirement age, and establish a buffer mechanism before extending the retirement age to minimize the impact of the retirement policy adjustment.
In addition, this plan also proposes to introduce a flexible retirement policy in due course, not to implement one size fits all, and to focus on the use of economic means to form an incentive and restraint mechanism for adjusting the retirement age.
Yang Yansui, director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with China Business News that although academic circles have consensus and government departments also have plans, it is very difficult to delay retirement policies. The main reason is that relevant departments mistakenly believe that delayed retirement will Employment has a negative impact. At the same time, the slogan of "Government to provide for the aged" left over from the family planning era has not been corrected in time. Education on aging has not been carried out in a timely manner, and it is difficult to achieve consensus among the people.
In fact, with the increase in life expectancy, delaying retirement has become a necessary policy option for individuals to adapt to the trend of increasing life expectancy and for the country to deal with the impact of longevity risks.
In 2019, my country's population of 65 years and older reached 176 million, accounting for 23.0% of the world's population of the same age group, which is much higher than my country's total population of the world (18.2%).
From an international comparison, my country can be said to be one of the countries with the lowest legal retirement age in the world.
my country’s retirement age (50 for female employees, 55 for female cadres, and 60 for males) was established 70 years ago. When the retirement age was set in the 1950s, the average life expectancy of the Chinese population was only over 40 years old. At the beginning of reform and opening up, labor The retirement system under the insurance law is that 37 people work and one person retires.
By 2019, my country's life expectancy reached 77.3 years, and the pension insurance support ratio was 3:1, but the retirement age has not changed.
Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently wrote an article that the gradual delay in retirement policy is difficult to advance as scheduled, and many workers even withdraw from the job market before they reach the retirement age. This has aggravated the labor shortage trend and increased pension payments. Pressure also reduces the income level of the elderly.
He listed the introduction of a timetable and roadmap for delaying the statutory retirement age as one of the urgent tasks of the strategy of responding to the aging of the population during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told China Business News that delaying the statutory retirement age will have two effects. One is that pension payments can be postponed, which can ease the pressure on pensions, and the other is that extending work will increase The income and accumulation of social security funds, through such "one in and one out", delaying retirement can greatly improve the balance of pension insurance funds.
Progressive and flexible retirement gain more consensus
In the past five years, the academic community has also put forward some other plans. In general, progressive and flexible retirement have won more consensus.
In June of this year, the "China Development Report 2020: Development Trends and Policies of China's Population Aging" (hereinafter referred to as "China Development Report 2020") released by the China Development Research Foundation proposed that in response to the problem of the low labor participation rate of middle-aged and elderly people, The key work that needs to be done in the near future is to implement the delayed retirement policy.
It can be divided into two steps: the first step is to gradually increase the retirement age of female employees to 55 from 2020 to 2025 and adjust the retirement age of female civil servants to 60; the second step is to gradually implement flexible retirement ages starting in 2025 The system will take 5-10 years to gradually increase the age of full pension to 65.
Yang Yansui said that delayed retirement should be different between men and women. It is indeed too early for female workers to retire at the age of 50. The delay should be slightly faster. By the age of 62, this is currently a more appropriate age for receiving pensions.
In Yang Yansui’s view, as important as the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age is the establishment of a “early reduction and late increase” mechanism, which separates the retirement age from the pension age, and the retirement time is determined by the workers themselves. The state only needs to stipulate one The minimum age for receiving a pension is discounted for early retirement, and for late retirement is increased proportionally, allowing people to choose according to their own circumstances.
This is similar to the flexible retirement system implemented by many developed countries.
Dong Dengxin said that the mandatory retirement system implemented in my country requires mandatory retirement when workers reach the legal retirement age. Employers have the right to terminate the work of workers. However, in countries where flexible retirement is implemented, workers reach the legal retirement age. Health is willing to continue working, employers have no right to refuse.
At the same time, for those who retire late, the state will also reward pensions.
Taking the United States as an example, different pension standards are given to three situations: early retirement, normal retirement and delayed retirement.
Dong Dengxin introduced that the retirement age of the United States policy is 66 years old, and men and women are unified. The earliest retirement age allowed in the United States is 62 years old and the highest is 70 years old.
If a worker retires at 62, his pension will be deducted by nearly 30%. If he can work to retire at 70, he can increase it by 30% and receive it for life according to this standard.
Zhang Yinghua, an executive researcher at the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also told China Business News that the biggest difficulty in implementing delayed retirement is insufficient incentives. If people think that delayed retirement is obviously a disadvantage, this reform will definitely not be implemented.
Therefore, it is necessary to give enough incentives to those who are willing to postpone retirement, and to maintain a certain degree of flexibility for those who are not willing to delay retirement, so that the resistance to reform can be reduced.
The "China Development Report 2020" also recommends the establishment of a flexible retirement incentive mechanism.
Link the retirement age with the pension level, encourage the young people to consciously extend their employment period, and reduce early withdrawal from the labor market.
For example, according to German regulations, the pension is reduced by 3.6% for each year of early retirement, and the pension is increased by 6% for each year of delay.
Cai Fang said that we should start with the design of pension payment methods and strengthening on-the-job training, increase the actual labor participation rate of the elderly, and introduce a timetable road map for delaying the legal retirement age.
On the premise of increasing the actual labor participation rate from these two aspects, the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age is more humane, and the incentive compatibility between policy intentions and personal wishes is maximized.
Author: Guo Jinhui