Two weeks after the start of the military operation launched by the Ethiopian government against the rebel region of Tigray in the north of the country, the United Nations estimates that more than 36,000 Tigrayans have crossed the border into neighboring Sudan.

Among them are 12,000 children, according to Unicef, who sometimes fled the fighting "without parents or family".

While local humanitarian organizations are hard at work to set up an emergency reception, the situation on the ground, in the Tigray region, remains confused due to the cut in communications and the difficulties of movement in the region. zoned. 

For their part, the two camps are showing their determination, raising fears of a stagnation in the conflict which could lead to a mass exodus and a new humanitarian crisis on Sudanese soil.

With the deterioration of the situation in Tigray, Sudan, which has kept its border open, will have to manage this new migratory crisis as best it can.

Because a million refugees are already present on Sudanese soil in often precarious conditions. 

"Sudan is one of the countries that receives the most refugees," deplores Céline Schmitt, spokesperson for the UNHCR, the UN agency dedicated to refugees, contacted by France 24. However, when migration crises last over time, media coverage is diminishing and it is becoming more and more difficult to mobilize funds, she says. Today, although it welcomes a large number of South Sudanese, Eritreans, Syrians and even Central Africans, Sudan is part of our most underfunded programs. "

The only way out for the Tigrayans  

Caught in the clashes between the government army and the Tigrayan forces, civilians wishing to flee the fighting have very few options, as explained Gérard Prunier, former researcher at the CNRS and specialist in the region, contacted by France 24. " To the south, Tigray is bordered by the Amhara region, allied to the government, with which Tigray has significant ethnic and territorial rivalries. To the east lies a very sparsely populated region without food resources. Finally, to the north it is Eritrea, the worst enemy of the Tigrayans. There is only one piece of border left with Sudan, in the west, to escape the area. " 

Ethiopia: Tigray forces strike the capital of Eritrea, further dangerous escalation.

© France 24

A first transit camp was urgently established in the Sudanese border town of Hamdayet, but conditions are extremely precarious, according to UN coordinator Babacar Cissé.

"It's a very big challenge in terms of material, equipment, especially sanitation. These are areas that are out of the way, isolated."

The UN representative also indicated that the Sudanese authorities were not in favor of transforming this transit camp into a refugee camp, considering it too close to Ethiopia.

"There is a certain security stake for the Sudanese government because Amhara militias, present on the Ethiopian side, could be tempted to cross the border to do battle, exporting the conflict to Sudanese soil", analyzes Gérard Prunier.

In addition, the exodus from the Tigray region represents pressure for the local Sudanese population in this arid, almost desert-like and already very poor area.

"The communities contributed enormously to feeding the refugees before the arrival of international organizations such as the World Food Program and Muslim Aid," an aid worker explained to the France 24 team there.

Local NGOs are worried that the lack of infrastructure, and in particular sanitation, is causing disease among the refugees but also the populations.  

A race against time

This risk is all the more present since it is currently very difficult to channel the influx of refugees crossing the border.

"We are in a race against time," explains Céline Schmitt.

"In Sudan, our closest office to the camp is a six-hour drive away. The road is bad and to transfer refugees to reception centers, sometimes it takes two days to travel."

Despite the efforts of humanitarian actors, the situation is worsening day by day.

The Hamdayet transit center now accommodates 17,000 people with a capacity of 300 places, according to the UNHCR.  

If the absolute urgency remains the delivery of emergency aid and the transfer of refugees, the scale of the crisis raises fears of a wave of migration which could permanently harm the whole of Sudan.

The UNHCR, which had initially set up an emergency plan for 20,000 people, had to quickly revise its estimates upwards: "We have an average of 4,000 people arriving every day through the two main crossing points. These are professors, farmers, students, office workers ... The exodus affects all categories of the population, which raises fears of a massive influx, especially since, for the moment, there is no acts that residents of border areas and that other regions will probably follow, "warns Céline Schmitt.  

The Tigray region represents about 6% of the Ethiopian population, or more than four million inhabitants.

If the United Nations has currently listed a few tens of thousands of refugees, the organization is now counting on an exponential crisis.

A response plan for 200,000 Ethiopian refugees in Sudan over a six-month period was unveiled during a press briefing in Geneva on Friday, November 20.   

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