Hot spot | Italy may have the new crown virus in September last year!

Zhong Nanshan announced a new figure...

　　According to CCTV News, on November 11, 2020, the "Oncology Journal" published research results and found that in September last year, there were people in Italy who were positive for SARS-CoV2 receptor binding region-specific antibodies.

This pushed forward the existence of the new crown virus in Italy by another 5 months.

　　In the original words of the research report, this may "reshape the history of the pandemic."

　　One of the main authors of the paper, Monto Mori, a professor of public health at the University of Siena, said in an interview that in serum samples collected from all over Italy, antibodies showed such a distribution from September 2019 to February 2020 : The sera of 959 asymptomatic individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies, and 111 positive sera were found.

Of these, 23 were from September 2019 and 27 were from October.

　　△Paper by the National Cancer Institute of Milan and other institutions ``New Coronavirus Antibodies Unexpectedly Detected Before the Italian Pandemic

　　Why didn't the outbreak in Italy last year?

　　Since antibodies were detected in September and October last year, why didn't the epidemic break out at that time?

Montomori said:

　　From a scientific point of view, an outbreak requires a certain incubation period, which began in October last year and reached a small peak in February and March.

　　Another factor is seasonality.

COVID-19 is not the same as influenza. Influenza likes cold, but COVID-19 prefers milder weather, so it will break out when it is milder from January to March. This is the second guess.

　　From November to December last year, I saw more patients with pneumonia in the hospital, but unfortunately I have no data to support it.

A small-scale outbreak is likely to have occurred at the end of last year.

Looking for the earliest new coronavirus, time in many countries is constantly pushing forward

　　According to CCTV News, on March 10 this year, the Italian Higher Health Institute issued a report on the epidemic. Except for the three cases reported earlier, they were most likely to have been infected in China, and one could not determine the source of infection. The other 8,338 cases were all from Italy Native infection.

　　On June 18, the genetic material (RNA) of the new coronavirus was detected in the wastewater of Milan, Turin, and Bologna, and the virus's existence in Italy was pushed forward to December 18, 2019.

　　On June 30, according to local media reports, statistics from health and medical institutions in the Italian province of Bergamo showed that a total of 110 “strange” pneumonia cases were treated last winter.

Time has advanced to November last year.

△Ansa, Italy, June 30 news

　　According to People's Daily Online, on November 16th, the British "The Sun" reported that a British man recalled that he had traveled to Rome, Italy in September last year. After returning to the UK, he developed strange illnesses and even became critically ill.

Now this man suspects that he may be the first person infected with the new coronavirus in the UK.

　　Zhong Nanshan: The mortality rate of critically ill patients with new coronary disease in Wuhan is nearly 40%

　　On November 20, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, stated at the "CBioPC2020 China Biological Products Annual Conference" that the mortality rate of severe new coronary pneumonia is very high. National statistics show that the mortality rate of severe new coronary patients is 1.4-4.5%. The mortality rate of critically ill patients with new coronary disease is about 40%.

　　According to official statistics, the peak of the number of severe cases in hospitals in Wuhan was 9,689 on February 19, and the number of severe and critical cases was cleared on April 26.

As of September 2, 3,869 people have died in Wuhan due to the epidemic.

Dividing these two data results in a ratio of 39.9%, which is very close to the research data of Zhong Nanshan's team.

　　Regarding the resumption of plasma therapy, Zhong Nanshan pointed out that for severe and dying new coronary patients, the plasma treatment group did not significantly improve the clinical symptoms in 28 days compared with the conventional treatment group.

　　Netizen: I hope to find the source of the virus as soon as possible, and prevent and control it more effectively!