The Renaissance Dam and the Tigrayan War .. What are the messages of Egypt and Sudan from the "Nile Eagles"?

After years of leaving Sudan a victim of regional and international interventions that eventually prompted it to sign a normalization agreement with Israel, Cairo announced the launch of military maneuvers with Khartoum, whose messages do not exclude confronting the growing regional influence in the strategic southern depth of Egypt and the Horn of Africa, as well as carrying messages of deterrence in the long term. "To Ethiopia, which is witnessing a civil war, according to experts.

The military maneuvers, which are the first of their kind, were launched last Saturday, and will continue until the 26th of November, under the name of "The Nile Eagles 1", at an air base in the Meroe region (northern Sudan), and include planning and managing combat operations, in addition to commando groups carrying out tasks. Search and rescue, while the Egyptian "Mig-29M" fighters equipped with air combat missiles appeared for the first time.

The maneuvers came less than a month after the outgoing US President Donald Trump called the "military solution" to the Renaissance Dam crisis for Egypt, and coincided with the announcement of his administration to remove Sudan from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism after Khartoum normalized its relations with Israel.

In this context, the negotiations of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have been witnessing a stalemate and stalemate since their launch in recent years, at a time when Egypt fears potential negative repercussions of the dam on its share of the Nile water.

Ethiopia is also suffering from a civil war between the central government in Addis Ababa and the Tigray region, whose leaders accuse the UAE (an ally of the Egyptian regime) of supporting the Abiy Ahmed government with drones targeting the region.

As thousands of Ethiopians fled to Sudan, signs of regional interference in the civil conflict increased, with the countries of the region being involved in the crisis, while the UAE stands within walking distance from the support of Addis Ababa, after years of generous financial support that the Ethiopian government used to build the dam that is suffering. From Egypt.

Experts' views differed on the messages of "The Nile Eagles 1", but they agreed on the likelihood of continuing Egyptian-Sudanese diplomatic activity regarding the dam crisis, provided that "the use of force" would be possible in the long term if negotiations failed in the end.

Ethiopian accusations

While there were no Egyptian statements regarding the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia, Sudan confirmed, on the words of the Chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, on Tuesday, that his country supported the Ethiopian government when he met with an envoy of the Ethiopian Prime Minister in Khartoum.

In late 2016, Ethiopia accused Cairo of “supporting armed groups and training terrorist elements against the background of violent incidents in the Oromia region,” which was denied by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry at the time.

Months ago, the media promotion in Egypt of the military option in dealing with the Renaissance Dam retreated, against the backdrop of Ethiopia's declaration in late July of the beginning of the first filling of the dam, where Sisi criticized the promotion of the military option as harmful to Egyptian policy.

Joint threats and cooperation

The Egyptian military expert, retired Major General Talaat Muslim, confirmed, in turn, that his country is not preoccupied with sending military messages to the countries of the Nile Basin, stressing that the joint exercises that the Egyptian army is conducting recently are a means of training and ensuring the combat readiness to face threats in any potential conflict.

Regarding the Nile Eagles 1 maneuvers with the Sudanese side, the Egyptian military expert attributed them to being a step towards more joint military cooperation with Sudan in facing threats, indicating that these maneuvers could be a step towards restoring the mutual defense treaty between the two countries again.

In the late eighties of the last century, Sudan canceled a joint defense treaty with Egypt that was signed in 1976, for reasons including that the military cooperation between the two countries did not bring benefits to the Sudanese side.

The Egyptian military expert Muslim stressed that "the maneuvers do not target Ethiopia. Rather, they aim to confirm Egypt's ability to defend its interests and the interests of Sudan in the face of any threats, including the Ethiopian ones."

He added, "At the present time, there are no Egyptian measures or signs indicating readiness for military action targeting the Renaissance Dam, but that does not prevent the Egyptian forces' readiness to face any developments in this regard."

Muslim ruled out any role of Egypt's intelligence in fueling the ongoing civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray region, saying that "Egypt is not accustomed to playing this role, but it is definitely studying the conditions and what is best for its national security, without military involvement at the present time."

Regarding the Arab role in general in the Renaissance Dam crisis and the situation in the Horn of Africa, Muslim stressed that it is a role that "is still weak, and there may be fewer measures in it that we consider unsuccessful or an appropriate amount of cooperation, and Arab military relations in general are not at the required level."

Letter to Ethiopia

In turn, the former Egyptian intelligence agent, Major General Mohamed Rashad, considered the joint exercises "a message addressed to Ethiopia, after the dam negotiations reached a dead end."

In press statements, Rashad affirmed "Egypt's right to wave deterrence without entering into it," indicating that the timing is appropriate in light of the instability in Ethiopia.

Disputes not hostility

As for the Sudanese researcher and expert in international law, Muhammad Ali Fazari, he saw in the military maneuvers "a message to all the enemies of the region, as it is known that the Horn of Africa is witnessing many conflicts and an influx of refugees, and has become a fertile area for drug trafficking and illegal immigration."

Fazari pointed out that the maneuvers "also a message that the two armies will stand against any security challenges that may face the region, especially since all the armies of the Middle East have suffered many setbacks and calamities, and only the Egyptian and Sudanese army remains in the region."

He explained that although the current maneuvers may be protocol, this time they coincide with major regional events, ruling out at the same time that Ethiopia is one of its goals.

He stated that Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa are not hostile, but rather technical and legal disputes related to the Renaissance Dam, and so far the choice of force is not on the table despite the tensions related to this file.

He added that it is too early and too early for there to be harbingers for military operations or to send a message to Addis Ababa, as the three countries adopt the peaceful option and negotiate a solution to the crisis.

He attributed his speech to the fact that Egypt had not issued anything in support of President Trump's speech and his call for a military solution to the dam crisis, adding, however, that the Egyptian option remains a long-term military solution if all peace efforts and the efforts of experts and the African Union fail.

With regard to the current Ethiopian crisis, Fazari said, "Egypt has not identified a mechanism for intervention or even mediation, and the Egyptian position remains the most ambiguous, and the dam crisis may cast a shadow over that position, at least for the time being."

The Emirati role

Regarding the Tigray Front's accusations to the UAE of supporting the central government in Addis Ababa and providing it with drones targeting the region, Fazari said that these are serious accusations, noting that the Arab position on the Horn of Africa crisis and the Renaissance Dam remains weak and almost non-existent.

He added that the Tigray front must prove its accusations of Emirati interference in the region and the regional conflict, explaining that "the UAE is interfering in the Red Sea region and many regions, and it is looking after its interests with this intervention, and if it is proven its interference in the Tigrayan crisis, this will harm its reputation at home and abroad."