Seeing the congratulatory messages from the countries of the Middle East pouring in with more or less eagerness to salute the victory of Joe Biden in the American presidential election, one suspects that the arrival of this Democrat at the White House does not make the mark. affairs of all the capitals of the region.
Because the winner of the ballot intends to stand out from his predecessor, in addition to his style, by a change of political course.
To read: "America back on the world stage", diplomacy according to Joe Biden
Congratulations @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris.
Joe, we've had a long & warm personal relationship for nearly 40 years, and I know you as a great friend of Israel.
I look forward to working with both of you to further strengthen the special alliance between the US and Israel.
- Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) November 8, 2020
Saudi Arabia, which hoped in vain for a victory for the American billionaire, waited several days after the official announcement of the results, to "congratulate" Joe Biden.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waited a few hours before tweeting his congratulations.
Message in which he did not mention the terms of "victory", nor even of "elected president", preferring to resort to a more civilized diplomatic language to ensure that he was "eager to work" with him and his new vice-president, Kamala Harris.
A few minutes later, he also took care to warmly thank the loser for his friendship and his record.
Thank you @realDonaldTrump for the friendship you have shown the state of Israel and me personally, for recognizing Jerusalem and the Golan, for standing up to Iran, for the historic peace accords and for bringing the American-Israeli alliance to unprecedented heights.
- Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) November 8, 2020
End of the honeymoon for Israel
Few leaders in the Middle East have benefited as much from President Trump's foreign policy largesse as the Israeli prime minister.
In terms of the many gifts from Trump to Netanyahu during his four years in office, we note the transfer of the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem;
recognition of the sovereignty of the Hebrew state over the Golan Heights conquered from Syria during the 1967 war;
the proposal for a "peace plan" providing for the annexation of 30% of the West Bank;
the normalization agreements signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan or the withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement concluded three earlier by Barack Obama and his vice-president… a certain Joe Biden .
With Biden's return to the forefront on the international stage, Israelis fear the Democrats will hold them against them in view of past hostilities.
"Some fear in particular that the Democrats have not forgotten the virulent charge carried by Benjamin Netanyahu on March 3, 2015, before the American Congress, on the face and beard of Barack Obama [the Israeli Prime Minister then lambasted the attempt to Iranian nuclear deal on which the United States was working], "Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli ambassador to Washington and emeritus professor of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University, told France 24.
The hope of the Palestinians
Conversely, Palestinians and Iranians, delighted by the verdict of the American ballot box, did not wait to congratulate Joe Biden, perceiving his arrival in power as so much hope.
"I look forward to working with the president-elect and his administration to strengthen Palestinian-American relations and achieve freedom, independence, justice and dignity for our people," the president said quickly. 'Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas today congratulated Joe Biden on his electoral victory and called on him to "strengthen" US-Palestinian relations, in a statement released by his services #AFP pic.twitter.com/GkYmIdED52
- Agence France-Presse (@afpfr) November 8, 2020
It must be said that the latter, in particular, was exasperated by Trump's policies.
The peace plan unveiled with great fanfare at the White House last January with Netanyahu by his side without the presence of Palestinian officials was seen as an affront.
"It came with the supposed deal of the century, denying any right for the Palestinian people to live in their own state alongside Israel, offering unwavering support for Netanyahu's far-right government," France 24 told France 24. Elias Zananiri, Vice-Chairman of the Committee for Interaction with Israeli Society, PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization).
As for the normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, "it was established for free without forcing the Israelis to end their occupation of our land. It goes against all fundamental principles of 'peace initiative in the conflict,' continues Elias Zananiri.
With Joe Biden in power, the Palestinians should therefore end their boycott of American relations.
“Of course, we expect and hope that Biden remains committed to the two-state solution and works to achieve it, in coordination with the Israeli and Palestinian sides,” Zananiri said.
The return of the status quo on the Israeli-Palestinian question
?
Certainly, Joe Biden has been very clear during his campaign about his desire to find a two-state solution.
But it won't be that easy, according to Yossi Kuperwasser, a former senior IDF officer and researcher at the Center for Public Affairs, a pro-Netanyahu think tank based in Jerusalem.
First, because the Americans recognized, during Trump's mandate, Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights.
It's hard to imagine going back in time.
Then, "it will nevertheless be very complicated for him to advance his vision of the world, because of the American internal politics, even within the Democratic Party. The new elected will therefore have to face voices which pull him in opposite directions. United States of course, but also in the Middle East because things have changed, assures Yossi Kuperwasser to France 24. The Palestinian question is not at the top of the priorities of the Arab world. Is Biden supposed to force the Arab world. to go back and put the Palestinian issue at the top of his priorities? It is a bit of a risky approach. It is clear to him that this would create a conflict with Israel and I do not believe he would want that, "continued Yossi Kuperwasser.
The most probable hypothesis remains the return of the status quo.
“Joe Biden was present at all the meetings and discussions of peace initiative under Obama, recalls Martin Indyk, former American ambassador to Israel under Bill Clinton and Obama's special envoy for the Middle East. He knows Netanyahu and Abu Mazen well. (Mahmoud Abbas, Editor's note), and must think that these same two actors are no more likely to accept the compromises necessary for an agreement today than they were six years ago. "
Trump's (unintentional) help
Nevertheless, the recent normalization of relations between certain Arab countries and Israel desired by Donald Trump could well help the future American president.
In "the deal of the century", Israel had to agree not to annex the Jordan Valley and the Israeli settlements to normalize its relations with the United Arab Emirates, underlines Martin Indyk.
If Joe Biden embarks on a new attempt at an agreement between Israel and Palestine, he will therefore be able to rely on these Arab countries involved to lay the foundations for a new peace plan.
One thing is certain, Joe Biden should resume American aid allocated to Palestine.
In 2018, the Trump administration ended $ 200 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank.
The following year, it ceased all U.S. funding - worth around $ 360 million in 2017 - to the United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA).
The return of the Iran nuclear deal?
Regarding the Iran nuclear deal, Joe Biden will once again be able to rely on the work of the Trump administration.
The new presidential team could take advantage of economic pressure and heavy sanctions from the current administration weighing on Tehran.
"Trump gave Biden considerable weight, not only to bring the Iranians back into the Vienna nuclear deal but also to get them to negotiate seriously on other issues," agrees Martin Indyk.
As a first step, he should re-establish a common position with the British, the French and the Germans on this subject, believes Dennis Ross, member of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who has held diplomatic posts in the Clinton administrations, Bush senior and Obama.
But again, the business promises to be perilous.
Because "the Iranians have a way of negotiating with everyone that does not make things easier, so we should not expect rapid progress. But things will be different because the American administration will not move forward alone. vis-à-vis Iran as the Trump administration has done, "he said.
Finally, "there is a broad consensus in the United States that the American involvement in the wars in the Middle East has been very expensive. Too expensive with often questionable or non-existent gains, concludes Dennis Ross. It is therefore strong. Joe Biden may be more cautious about his international commitments. But he's also aware that we just can't leave a vacuum - because a void usually fills with the worst things. "
Article by Tamar Shiloh Vidon translated from English by Aude Mazoué
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