Six months of the new corona seen in economic data November 16, 11:19
The latest July-September GDP = gross domestic product, which shows Japan's economic scale and growth rate, was announced.
Due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, it turned from April to June, which was a record drop of minus 28.8% (real annual rate), and recorded a significant increase of plus 21.4%.
What is happening to the Japanese economy, which has been hit hard by Corona?
I read the current situation with various economic data.
GDP
1. Real growth rate (annual rate) From
April to June, the
rate of
decline exceeds that after the Lehman shock.
As a reaction to this, July-September turned around, surpassing the record during the bubble period and reaching the highest growth rate.
Travel-related growth has increased due to the effects of Go To Travel, and "personal consumption" has recovered.
“Export” is also strong due to growth in automobiles for the United States.
It is in the process of recovery, but it is largely a reaction to the fall from April to June.
2. Real GDP actual
amount
(annualized)
507 trillion yen from July to September on a monetary basis.
It returned from the point where it dropped to 483 trillion yen from April to June, but it is still recovering.
You can see how severe the corona shock was compared to the decline during the 2008 Lehman shock.
Looking at the increase / decrease in each field, the recovery of external demand contributed the most to this GDP.
Production / export
3. Trade Statistics "Export"
You can see that by looking at the monthly trade statistics.
Exports fell the most in May to minus 28%.
This is the biggest drop since the Lehman shock.
After that, the minus range has shrunk.
This is because products for China are on a recovery trend.
4. Industrial production index
The production activities of firms also started to pick up after bottoming out in May.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which releases the index, has determined that "production is picking up."
With the resumption of overseas economic activities, production has begun to return in a wide range of industries, centered on automobiles and production machinery.
Financial market
Despite the corona wreck, the financial markets are making a remarkable move.
A large amount of money has flowed into the market as a result of countries' huge fiscal stimulus and unusual monetary easing to stop the corona shock.
5. Nikkei Stock Average The
global stock market shook significantly in March.
The Nikkei Stock Average also plummeted from the 24,000 yen level to the 16,000 yen level.
However, after that, it turned to an upward trend, and in November, the rate of increase expanded in the wake of the US presidential election.
It reached the 25,000 yen level for the first time in 29 years.
Some market participants have pointed out that it is "overheated."
6. Yen exchange rate In
the turmoil of the market in March, the yen appreciated momentarily to the 101 yen level per dollar.
Currently, it has been around 104 yen.
living
So what about the data related to daily life?
7. Consumption expenditure
First, consumption.
The effect of self-restraint can be clearly read from the data.
In April, when the state of emergency was declared, it was minus 11.1%, and in May it was 16.2%, a double-digit decline.
After that, the minus was reduced due to support measures such as a uniform benefit of 100,000 yen in cash, but the consumption of the latest data in September was minus 10.2%.
Looking at spending by item, spending more time at home is increasing, and foodstuffs such as pasta and alcohol for drinking at home such as chu-hi are increasing.
On the other hand, the suit is a big minus due to the influence of remote work.
Cosmetics such as lipstick are also negative because they wear masks.
The most notable declines are eating out, rail fares, and package travel.
8. Eating
out According to the data of the
eating
out industry group, the sales of "pubs and pubs" in September are halved compared to the previous year due to the influence of self-restraint.
9. Accommodation Travel Statistics The
number of guests staying at hotels and inns nationwide decreased by 84% in May compared to the previous year.
The refrain from going out and the record decline of foreign guests were affected.
Go To Travel, a measure to stimulate tourism demand, has begun, but in September it was still down 47% year-on-year.
Employment / wages
Depressions such as eating out and traveling are also threatening the employment of people working in those areas.
It is clearly visible in the recruitment movement.
10. Effective job openings-to-applicants ratio The
active job openings-to-applicants ratio reached 1.6 times at the beginning of last year.
It was pointed out that there was a labor shortage at a level higher than that during the bubble economy.
However, after the corona, it dropped noticeably, 1.03 times in September.
New jobs are declining in most industries.
The rate of decrease is increasing in the order of "life-related services / entertainment", "accommodation / food and drink", and "wholesale / retail".
Employment data has deteriorated significantly.
The unemployment rate is rising.
According to a survey by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of people who lost their jobs due to dismissal or "stop hiring" exceeded 70,000, including the prospect, between the end of January and November 6.
11. Total salary
Wages have also declined for the sixth straight month since April.
Overtime pay and other overtime pay continue to decline significantly.
What is the future outlook?
The Japanese economy is recovering from the corona shock, but it is far from the level before the spread of the infection.
It can also be read from the data.
The outlook for employment and wages is unpredictable due to the re-emergence of infections in addition to sluggish eating out and travel.
Looking at the rise in stock prices, we can see a cross section of "distorted recovery."
The government plans to put together economic measures in December, but in addition to supporting companies and individuals, it is likely to be asked whether it can come up with a policy to promote growth in response to the "new daily life."