Chinanews.com, Beijing, November 13 (Reporter Sun Zifa) Springer Nature's open access academic journal "Science Reports" recently published a climate change research paper, scientific researchers reduced the complexity of global climate use from 1850 to 2500 Simulations conducted by the degree model show that even if man-made greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to zero, the global temperature may continue to rise in the following centuries.
The authors of the paper, Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke, BI Norwegian Business School in Oslo, Norway, used a Reduced Complexity Earth System Model (ESCIMO) to simulate the impact of different greenhouse gas emission reductions on global climate change from 1850 to 2500, and its impact on global temperature And the magnitude of sea level rise was predicted.
They encourage other researchers to use different models to explore the results of the study that "ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming."
The author’s model shows that man-made greenhouse gas emissions peaked in the 2030s and dropped to zero by 2100. By 2500, the global temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius and sea level by 3 meters from 1850; Under the condition that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero during 2020, it is estimated that compared with 1850, the global temperature will increase by about 3 degrees Celsius by 2500, and the sea level will rise by about 2.5 meters. .
They believe that after the reduction of man-made greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature may continue to rise, because the continuous melting of Arctic ice and carbon-containing permafrost may increase the content of water vapor, methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; Arctic ice and permafrost The melting of frozen ground also reduces the area of ice that reflects the heat and light of the sun.
To prevent temperature and sea level from rising as predicted, the author of the paper believes that between 1960 and 1970, all-induced greenhouse gas emissions should have been reduced to zero; in order to prevent the global temperature and sea level from rising after the cessation of greenhouse gas emissions, And limit its potential catastrophic impact on the earth's ecosystem and human society. Starting from 2020, at least 33 billion tons of carbon dioxide must be removed from the atmosphere through carbon capture and storage methods.
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