With another ceasefire, can the four agreements be exchanged for Naqa peace?

With another ceasefire, can the four agreements be exchanged for Naqa peace?

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　　When the first three agreements all ended in failure, how long can the new ceasefire agreement last?

With the continuation of the conflict in the Naqqa region, the involvement of relevant parties has become deeper and deeper.

With the interests of major powers intertwined and the strategic game intensified, it remains to be seen whether Nakka can truly achieve peace.

　　The Naka region, which has been in conflict for a month and a half, finally ushered in the dawn of peace.

　　The leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a statement on November 9, announcing that the Naka region will implement a complete ceasefire from 0:00 Moscow time on the 10th, that is, at 5:00 Beijing time on the 10th.

　　Since the outbreak of a new round of the Naqqa conflict on September 27, the two sides have reached four ceasefire agreements.

　　When the first three agreements all ended in failure, how long can the new ceasefire agreement last, and can it finally put an end to this round of conflict?

　　One

　　Accompanying the ceasefire agreement is the news from the Russian Ministry of Defense that six military transport aircraft of the model Il-76 have gone to the Naka region.

The plane carried Russian peacekeepers and military supplies.

　　According to foreign media reports, the Russian peacekeeping force is composed of 1960 men, 90 armored vehicles and 380 various types of equipment.

　　Azerbaijani President Aliyev stated that the Russian peacekeeping force will be stationed in the Naka region for five years. If Azerbaijan and Armenia have no objections, the station will be automatically extended after the expiration date.

　　This is the fourth humanitarian ceasefire agreement reached between Asia and Afghanistan since this round of conflict.

Since the conflict broke out, the two countries have reached three ceasefire agreements on October 10, 17, and 26, but they all ended in failure.

　　On November 8, the Azerbaijani side claimed that the Azerbaijani army controlled Shusha, the second largest city in the Naka region and the strategic town.

The Armenian side confirmed the news the next day.

　　According to Agence France-Presse, the Afghan army's control of Shusha may become a turning point in this round of conflict.

　　After the new ceasefire agreement came into effect, Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan stated on social media on the 10th that the decision to ceasefire was "unspeakable pain" for him and Armenia, but "may be the best decision." .

　　"After analyzing the military situation in depth, I made this decision." He said, "We never think that we are defeated." The ceasefire will "open a new era of national unity and rebirth."

　　Aliyev was "happy" for the resolution of the Naka conflict.

He stated that the new ceasefire agreement is of historical significance and conforms to the interests of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the region.

　　two

　　Since the outbreak of a new round of conflict, Reuters reported that at least 1,000 people have been killed in Naka and its surrounding areas during the fighting in the past six weeks.

　　The Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region is located in southwestern Azerbaijan, and its residents are mostly Armenians.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for the Naka region.

　　In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of the OSCE) established the Minsk Group consisting of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as the co-chairs.

Negotiations at different levels on the Naka issue have been held within the framework of the Minsk Group, but no substantive progress has been made.

　　In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue.

　　On September 27, 2020, a new round of conflict broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Naka issue.

　　After the new ceasefire agreement came into effect, many countries welcomed it and called on the two countries to resume negotiations in order to achieve long-term mediation of the conflict.

　　British Foreign Secretary Raab said on social media that all parties should continue to work together to find a long-term peaceful solution.

　　French Foreign Minister Le Drian also said that in addition to the ceasefire agreement announced at night, the two sides still need to resume negotiations.

　　On the 10th, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Turkish President Erdogan at an appointment to discuss issues such as the conflict in the Nakka region.

　　Erdogan spoke highly of Russia’s efforts to mediate the conflict, believing that this has laid a good foundation for a comprehensive and long-term solution to the conflict in the Naqqa region.

　　three

　　According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, according to a statement signed by the leaders of the three countries, Azerbaijan will gain control of some areas of Naqa.

　　This statement caused dissatisfaction among some Armenians.

In the evening, protests occurred in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, and some government office buildings were damaged.

　　Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated on social media that the prime minister’s residence was ransacked at night, and computers and watches were stolen.

　　At the same time, Azerbaijani President Aliyev stated that Russia and Turkey will send peacekeepers to jointly monitor the ceasefire in the Naka region.

　　However, the Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov subsequently responded to reporters’ questions and said that Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia “did not coordinate” the deployment of Turkish soldiers in the Naka region and did not reach a consensus. The statement did not mention this.

　　Turkey, a traditional ally of Azerbaijan, declared its full support for Azerbaijan during the Naka conflict.

　　Earlier, both Armenian and Russian media accused Turkey of sending Syrian mercenaries to the Naka region to fight on behalf of Azerbaijan, saying that this will intensify regional conflicts on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will create a “terrorist enclave” in Transcaucasus. The regional security situation has further deteriorated.

　　However, the Turkish side has always denied the direct involvement of armed personnel in the war.

　　In this regard, some commentators believe that with the continuation of the conflict in the Naka region, the involvement of relevant parties has also become deeper.

With the interests of major powers intertwined and the strategic game intensified, it remains to be seen whether Nakka can truly achieve peace.

　　Zhao Xiaozhan