Moscow has called the end of the game in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since the end of September, the separatist region has been the scene of bloody fighting between the Armenian separatists and the Azerbaijani army.
Alas, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed, Tuesday, November 9, under the aegis of Russia, an agreement to end hostilities.
An arbitration which recalls the capital importance of Moscow in any mediation in the South Caucasus and which sounds like an abandonment of Armenia, traditional ally of Russia.
It was besides Vladimir Poutine who made the announcement himself, around midnight, on the night of Monday to Tuesday: "On November 9, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the Prime Minister of 'Armenia, Nikol Pashinian, and the President of the Russian Federation signed a declaration of a total ceasefire and cessation of military operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, effective November 10, 2020, 00 h 00. "
To ensure compliance with this agreement, Russia began deploying some 2,000 troops as soon as the ceasefire came into effect.
According to the treaty signed between Yerevan, Baku and Moscow, they will be deployed as the Armenian forces leave the territories again under control of Azerbaijan, that is to say seven districts and a small part of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The self-proclaimed republic, diminished and weakened, will survive under the protection of Russian soldiers who will be deployed on the front lines.
The Russian army will protect in particular the Latchin corridor, the only supply route linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.
Maps of the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh provided by the Ministry of Defense and published by RIA Novosti 1 / pic.twitter.com/RgK7FPFVG0
- Nurlan Aliyev (@anurlan) November 11, 2020
Azerbaijan, winner with Putin's blessing
?
On the ground, Azerbaijan therefore appears to be the big winner in the conflict with its neighbor.
It retains all of the territories reconquered in Nagorno-Karabakh proper, starting with the historic and strategic town of Shushi, which is located on the road linking Armenia to the separatist capital Stepanakert.
Proof of an agreement consecrating his military victories, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev welcomed a "surrender" of Armenia.
"I said we would chase (the Armenians) off our land like dogs, and we did," he said, also calling Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian a "coward" for not having signed the joint declaration in front of cameras.
For Galia Ackerman, essayist and historian, author of "The Immortal Regiment. Putin's Sacred War", published by Premier Parallèle, Azerbaijan has benefited from the benevolence of Vladimir Putin and from a "tacit" endorsement:
Cease-fire in Nagorno-Karabakh: Russia's "diplomatic coup"
07:41
"Nagorno-Karabakh, whether under Azeri or Armenian control, is not a priority for Vladimir Putin", explains the historian on France 24. "For the Russian president, letting this war take its course was a way to get rid of Pachinian and turn things around in Armenia. "
Russia lets go of Armenia
"Nikol Pachinian was elected following a popular uprising and was beginning to feel a little too independent in the eyes of the Russians. He notably replaced a few people from his pro-Moscow security services," continues Galia Ackerman.
Why has [Azerbaijan attacked] now?
I think it was a Vladimir Putin project. "
"Armenia is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). If he had wanted to intervene, Putin had the possibility of doing so and turning the tide of events", recalls Galia Ackerman, but the latter preferred arguing that the security of Armenia in itself was not at stake. The Kremlin preferred to see its ally sink while continuing to sell arms to Azerbaijan.
As proof of the harshness of the ceasefire conditions, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian spoke on his Facebok page of a decision "incredibly painful for [him] and for [his] people".
He emerges very weakened from this war while demonstrations break out, denouncing his "betrayal".
Exit the Minsk group
Russia, France and the United States co-chair the Minsk group, theoretically on the front line on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
But neither Washington nor Paris were decisive this time.
The Minsk group is not even mentioned in the deal, leaving Russia alone at the center of the game.
"What is very important for the Kremlin is the decreasing role of the West", notes Alexander Gabuev, interviewed by AFP, referring in particular to the lack of interest in the Caucasian question of the outgoing US president, Donald Trump.
The other winner of the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh is called Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey, a strong supporter of Azerbaijan, emerges stronger from this outcome and will monitor with Russia the application of the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh from a joint observation center, according to the Turkish presidency.
This Russian-Turkish observation center "will be based on the territory of Azerbaijan" and "has nothing to do" with the peacekeeping forces which will be deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh, for its part assured the spokesperson for Russian diplomacy, Maria Zakharova, during a televised intervention.
12 / Ties with Baku have not been damaged, although much stronger 🇹🇷 influence in Azerbaijan and broader region became very visible.
However, growth of Ankara's presence in the region was in the making for years, and Moscow sees it as an inevitable downside of the new order.
- Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 (@AlexGabuev) November 10, 2020
"The strengthening of Ankara's presence in the region has been a process that has been going on for years and Moscow sees it as the inevitable consequence of the new order," Alexander Gabuev, Moscow researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, explained on Twitter. .
Nagorno-Karabakh: "Russia was first struck by Turkey's entry into the Caucasian game"
05:47
"Russia was first struck by the irruption of Turkey in the Caucasian game. Ankara participated on all levels, especially on the military level, which made the difference", notes Gaïdz Minassian, specialist in Armenia and researcher at the Political-Defense Relations International Security Analysis Group (GAPDRIS) on the France 24 branch. "We can see today that Baku attaches more importance to Ankara than to Moscow."
"Turkey emerges strengthened, but in reality the war has benefited all parties in the conflict except Armenia. Russia regains control of Armenia and returns to Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey strengthens its links with Azerbaijan. And Azerbaijan is jubilant because it has recovered territories occupied for thirty years, "concludes Galia Ackerman.
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