US President Donald Trump's dismissal of Defense Secretary Mark Esper deepened the fear of many commentators that Trump would make rash decisions of a military nature towards the Iranian file during the two months remaining in the White House.
With the absence of a clear reason about the significance and purpose behind the dismissal, and is it an indication of Trump's intention to launch a military strike against Iran, and does Trump need a defense minister who is more cooperative with him than Esper? Washington, DC.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, the former US Defense Department official and expert at the American Enterprise Institute, Michael Rubin, ruled out the scenario of a military escalation from Washington, and Robin confirmed that he did not expect a serious escalation from the Trump administration in the remaining 70 days.
Rubin added that this cannot happen for 3 reasons:
First: The idea that the United States is seeking war with Iran is a wrong idea, and it is motivated by progressive American left groups, or pressure groups such as the American National Iranian Council, which is using the idea to collect their own donations.
Second: Although President Trump is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces;
But the Pentagon has a great opinion on this issue, it is not enough to give an order;
Rather, there must be an arrangement, and it may take days, weeks, or months to prepare for attacks on Iran, not to mention Congress’s assured rejection of such a scenario.
The third and most important reason - in Robin's view - is that Trump's foreign policy legacy is that he was the first president - since Jimmy Carter - who did not start a foreign war, so he would not do that. "
For his part, professor at the Pentagon's National Defense University, David de Roch, believes that the most that Trump can do is try to consolidate "maximum pressure" on Iran.
Pompeo said there is a new wave of sanctions on (European) Iran
He has already announced new sanctions on Syrian allies and proxies of Iran, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said yesterday, "There will be a new wave of sanctions."
De Roche added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - "I expect that Trump will try to impose sanctions on every Iranian entity with a specific identity that is involved in a proxy conflict, as we have seen with Lebanese Christian politicians who have sided with Hezbollah, every entity controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and every entity involved." In developing missiles, anyone who can be identified works in an Iranian prison holding a political prisoner or hostage. "
De Roche considered that the only scenario in which Trump could launch an attack on Iran is that "there is a military action against the American forces in Iraq or any Iranian attack against major American interests in the world, then Trump will respond directly against the headquarters and facilities of the Popular Mobilization Forces directed." From the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
In this case, Trump will do what he can to completely destroy the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, including the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, before leaving office. "
The professor at the Center for the Near East and South Asia of the American National Defense University, Jawdat Bahjat, disagreed with previous opinions, and considered that President Trump aims to obstruct "any possible return to the nuclear agreement if he leaves the White House, and wants to make sure that the next president will not be able to revive The agreement with Iran. "
Bahjat indicated that Iran "follows a policy of so-called strategic patience, and they did not respond to the killing of General Qassem Soleimani."
But he added, "It is certain that the Trump administration will continue to impose more sanctions on Iran from now until January 20, 2021, and it may seek a military confrontation, with the aim of killing the nuclear agreement."
How does the Biden administration differ from Trump's approach to Iran?
Robin considered that the administration of President-elect Joe Biden will follow a policy of "light pressure", as the Democrats school believes in giving incentives in advance in order to expedite the agreement reached on paper.
Biden announced his desire to rejoin the nuclear agreement with Iran (Al Jazeera)
De Roch believes that Biden may not be able to undo these sanctions imposed by the Trump administration without a strong political reaction from Iran, as it is possible that the Iranians will demand that the sanctions be raised to the level of 2016 in order to restore the nuclear agreement, says de Roche.
De Roche indicated that Biden does not have much, so he cannot grant Iran an international agreement approved by Congress, especially with the opposition of the top Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, as the leader of the Democratic Minority Committee on Foreign Relations, Senator Bob Mendeniz, opposes the Iranian agreement.
Professor Bahjat believes that the issue of returning to work with the nuclear agreement is not that easy, and despite President-elect Biden publicly declaring his desire to rejoin the nuclear agreement with Iran, there are many challenges and doubts, one of which is the identity of the party, which has the majority of the Senate.
The chances of improving relations between Washington and Tehran are high, especially given the developments of the past 4 years.
Professor Bahjat expected that Tehran would demand financial compensation for what Trump did, and that it would increase its negotiating influence by enriching more uranium.
Bahjat believes that Biden will start allowing humanitarian aid to Iran to help the country contain the outbreak of the Coronavirus, and may allow the International Monetary Fund to approve the $ 5 billion loan that Iran requested, and these steps may help the two sides to start talking to each other.
And if all goes well, the negotiations are likely to be based on the idea of more for more, meaning that the more Biden raises the sanctions, the more Iran will fulfill its commitment under the terms of the nuclear deal, Bahjat says.