A worrying military escalation.
In the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, the government launched strikes against regional authorities accused of carrying out attacks targeting two federal military bases.
Charges denied by those concerned, who feel they are unfairly targeted by power.
While the outbreak of this large-scale military mission in early November surprised many observers, tensions between the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which heads this northern region, do not date from yesterday.
The TPLF accuses Abiy Ahmed, elected Prime Minister in April 2018, of having, since taking power, sought by all means to reduce the influence of the Tigrayan leaders by removing them from the government and by increasing the number of corruption trials.
They also take a dim view of the peace agreement signed with neighboring Eritrea by the new prime minister, three months after coming to power.
"The Tigrayans ruled the country from 1991 to 2018 and they were on the front line in the war against Eritrea, with whom they have historical territorial rivalries", explains Gérard Prunier, former researcher at the CNRS, specialist in the Horn of the 'Afrique et des Grands Lacs, contacted by France 24. "Today, they have retreated to their region but see the central government as an enemy."
Political showdown
Another event, which occurred in September 2020, contributed to this escalation.
Tigray defied the central power by organizing elections despite the ban decreed by the power because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"The Constitution grants a lot of autonomy to the regions, and even the possibility of seceding. But there is a protocol to be respected and certain obligations remain vis-à-vis the central power, such as obtaining the authorization of organize elections. There is no doubt that this election played a major role in the escalation of tensions, "said Gérard Prunier.
The government of Tigray has since been dissolved by the Ethiopian parliament.
For William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group interviewed on France 24, the conflict between the central government and Tigray reflects a broader political issue: "There is an ideological clash over how Ethiopia should define itself, on the distribution of power between central government and regional governments ".
The risk of civil war
If the Tigrayans represent only 6% of the population, it is one of the most militarized provinces in the country.
"They occupied a very important place in the command of the central army. After leaving power, it is estimated that a third of the officers and half of the soldiers returned to Tigray, taking their military equipment with them", explains Gérard. Plum tree.
"The army of Tigray is today led by the former leader of the guerrilla Tsadkan Gebre Kidan, who fought the Russians and is extremely seasoned, the forces of the central government will have a lot of difficulty in bending them", judge- he does.
For his part, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is showing unfailing optimism, calling the military mission against the Tigray bases a "law enforcement operation" which will "be completed shortly".
The government is counting in particular on the involvement of the Amhara region, bordering Tigray, reputed to be powerful and hostile to its neighbor.
At the same time, troop movements were reported in the Afar region, another neighbor of Tigray considered one of its potential allies.
"The Ethiopian government has embarked on a very risky enterprise", worries David Ambrosetti, researcher at CNRS, interviewed on France 24. "The use of regional forces raises fears of a long-term conflict which could extend to l 'whole territory'.
Towards a regional crisis
?
Faced with the military escalation, observers are worried about the potential regional repercussions of the conflict in Ethiopia, in particular vis-à-vis the former Eritrean enemy.
"The peace agreement with Eritrea is a front agreement concluded under American pressure," said Gérard Prunier.
"The rivalry with Tigray is intact and Eritrea could take the opportunity to attack the province as well."
For William Davison, if it is difficult to assert at this stage that the conflict can extend beyond borders, the risk for the region is very real: "The balance of power leads us to believe that the rapid military victory The Prime Minister's hopes will not happen. In addition to Eritrea's potential involvement, the conflict could have a strong impact on Sudan, which constitutes a vital supply route for Tigray. A stalemate can raise fears of a migration crisis destabilizing for the region ".
An exodus that has already started, according to the Sudanese authorities who indicated, Tuesday, November 10, that thousands of Ethiopian refugees had already crossed the border with Sudan.
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