China News Service, Washington, November 10th, title: Decoding the 2020 US General Election: A new divide in the "swing" opposition
China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
It has been a week since the end of the 2020 election in the United States, but the dust has not yet settled.
According to media estimates, the Democratic presidential candidate Biden has won more than 270 electoral votes on the 7th.
The US President Trump, who is seeking re-election, insisted that the election has not yet ended, and questioned fraud in the election, and initiated legal proceedings in several "swing states."
Despite the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Americans' enthusiasm for voting remains unprecedented.
According to statistics from the Associated Press, as of the 9th, Biden and Trump have received more than 76 million and more than 71 million votes respectively, making them the number one and number two presidential candidates in American history.
"The counting of votes is still going on, and it will take longer than ever. The unique thing about the 2020 election is that we won't know the answers to many questions for a while." The American poll analysis website "FiveThirtyEight" concluded. "The most obvious conclusion of this general election is that the United States is still divided in two by two deep-rooted political alliances."
Judging from the preliminary election results of each state, this year's general election is the same as four years ago. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin continue to "sway" and once again become the key states that determine the outcome of the general election.
The difference is that the traditional "red states" of Georgia and Arizona have a tendency to "turn blue", while the Republican Party's advantage in Florida has been further consolidated.
Zogby, an American pollster, pointed out that the contest between the two parties in the "swing state" in 2020 will be as evenly matched as in 2016.
"This country is still in a state of divergence and opposition."
According to export polls, US media analysis found that the “basic disk” of the Republicans and Democrats in 2020 will be more stable.
The difference in the approval ratings of the two presidential candidates in multiple "swing states" is less than 1 percentage point, which also reflects the degree of polarization of public opinion.
Guian McKee, an assistant professor at the University of Virginia (UVA's Miller Center) who studies electoral politics in the United States, found that behind the polarized public opinion, the United States originally supported the “red and blue” of the Democratic Party, the Central and the South’s Republican Party. The competitive landscape is being replaced by the political divide between the city and the countryside, and it has a tendency to deepen.
Guyan McGee pointed out to a reporter from China News Agency that the preliminary results of the 2020 election show that the Democratic Party has obvious advantages in urban elections, the Republican Party’s support rate in the countryside is solid, and public opinion is divided in the suburbs of the metropolitan area.
Biden's overall support rate among minorities is higher than Trump, who has won the support of more white and religious conservative voters.
The last time the Democratic presidential candidate won Georgia was 28 years ago.
"Washington Post" stated that Georgia's divided elections are quite representative and reflect the subtle changes that are taking place in the US election map.
The rural areas of the state with a majority of white voters overwhelmingly support Trump, while Biden has benefited from the huge advantage and record turnout of the Atlanta metro area.
"This geographical'urban-rural' opposition is changing American politics and defining the essence of the polarization of public opinion." Guyan McGee pointed out that if the United States hopes to find a better politics after 2020, We must start by understanding the nature of this divergence.
In addition, the new crown epidemic has also become an important factor affecting this year's general election and has changed the political tendencies of voters in the middle.
"Nothing can explain this difference more than the attitude towards the new crown pneumonia." The Pew Research Center released a report after the general election, stating that in October this year, 82% of registered Democratic voters believed that the epidemic had a "very important effect on their votes." important influence.
Among Republican voters, only 24% hold the same view.
"Should this country pay more attention to public health or economic health? This summer's social unrest will make Americans more worried about systemic racial discrimination or the collapse of law and order? The country’s growing diversity is an advantage worth embracing. , Or obstacles that need to be overcome?" The Wall Street Journal commented that the 2020 election did not change the basic outline of American politics. "In essence, it reflects more American cultural issues and people's attitudes."
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