China News Service, Beijing, November 7 (Reporter Zhou Rui) In response to the public’s concerns about China’s food supply caused by the rise in international food prices since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Liu Dongzhu, a senior economist at the National Grain and Oil Information Center, told the media that China Food supply is guaranteed, and price increases are difficult to sustain.

Data map: Shandong 2020 wheat harvest site.

Photo by Sha Jianlong

　　Recently, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has spread globally, and the panic mentality has led to an increase in international food prices. In addition to abundant social liquidity funds, domestic food prices have also risen significantly.

In October 2020, the average price of indica rice in the main domestic producing areas rose by about 10% year-on-year, japonica rice by about 6%, and wheat by about 5%.

The cost of raw grains has risen, and the prices of finished grains such as rice and noodles have also risen, but the increase is relatively small.

In October, the average ex-factory price of indica rice in the main domestic producing areas rose by about 5% year-on-year, while that of japonica rice rose by about 1%, and flour remained basically the same.

　　In the same period, Vietnam’s rice export prices rose 37% year-on-year, US wheat export prices rose 14%, and the October cereal price index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations rose 16.5% year-on-year.

　　Liu Dongzhu believes that in 2020, my country’s grain planting area will be stable, summer grain production will increase, autumn grain harvest is nearing completion, and a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion. It not only meets the daily consumption needs of the broad masses of the people, but also effectively guarantees military needs to deal with natural disasters and emergencies. Food.

　　Liu Dongzhu pointed out that my country's current grain stocks are abundant, reserves are sufficient, and supplies are abundant. The stocks of the two major rations of wheat and rice are at historically high levels, which can meet the national consumption demand for more than one year. It is expected that the prices of wheat and rice will remain within a reasonable range.

After November, with the increase in the amount of corn on the market in the main producing areas, the continued export of temporarily stored corn, and the successive arrival of imported corn and substitutes in Hong Kong, the corn market supply is completely guaranteed, and the possibility of continued price increases is unlikely.

——It is unlikely that corn will continue to rise sharply in the later stage

　　Liu Dongzhu analyzed that since October, the domestic market price of new corn has opened higher, up about 30% year-on-year.

However, the increase in domestic corn prices is the result of actively adjusting and optimizing the planting structure and promoting corn consumption, which is in line with national policy guidance and is normal and reasonable.

It is unlikely to continue to rise sharply in the later period. There are four main reasons:

　　First, the typhoon disaster in Northeast China in September has limited impact on output. Corn output basically formed before the typhoon. This year's corn is still a good harvest year, and the amount of corn on the market will increase in the later stage.

　　Second, the prices of wheat and corn in North China are upside down, forcing some feed companies to use wheat instead of corn.

The recent minimum purchase price wheat transaction volume has improved significantly. It is precisely because of the increase in the purchase of feed companies that the increase in corn prices can be suppressed to a certain extent.

　　The third is that the temporary storage corn and one-time reserve corn that were traded in the previous period continue to be exported to the market.

　　Fourth, the import volume of corn and alternative grains has increased significantly.

From January to September this year, my country imported 17.73 million tons of substitutes such as corn, sorghum and barley, an increase of 6.17 million tons year-on-year.

According to data released by the US Department of Agriculture, Chinese companies have purchased more than 10 million tons of US new season corn in 2020.

Sorghum imports in 2020 are expected to reach 6 million tons, an increase of 2.3 million tons year-on-year.

　　Liu Dongzhu suggested that farmers should try their best to sell grain in a balanced and orderly manner.

You must not blindly hold your grain and refuse to sell it, and you must not put together a pile of grain to avoid falling prices. Unsold grain must be ventilated off the ground, and go upstairs and stacks to avoid moldy and bad grains and cause losses.

——Rice prices enter a high level and continue to rise with high resistance

　　Liu Dongzhu said that at present, mid-to-late rice is concentrated on the market, with active market purchases and sales, market-oriented acquisitions dominate, and the characteristics of high quality and price are obvious.

Among them, the listed price of Heilongjiang japonica rice was 1.3 to 1.32 yuan per catty, which was basically the same year-on-year. From the early stage of listing, the purchase and price were running smoothly.

In early November, the national average ex-factory price of japonica rice was 2.09 yuan/jin, 3 cents higher than the same period last year.

After the South Mid-late Indica rice went on the market, the price went higher and higher. The opening price was concentrated at 1.28-1.31 yuan/kg, which was 7 cents to 1 cent higher year-on-year; at the beginning of November, the purchase price of mid- and late indica rice was 1.4-1.45 yuan/kg. In the same period last year, it was 1 cent to 4 cents higher.

The national average ex-factory price of mid- and late-indica rice was 2.13 yuan/kg, 9 cents higher than the same period last year.

　　Liu Dongzhu believes that the main reasons for the high rise of the rice are: First, due to multiple factors such as the epidemic situation, disaster situation, and public opinion, the rise is expected to accumulate and ferment, and the main grain holders are more reluctant to sell their grains.

Second, market entities such as reserve companies and processing companies are actively purchasing new grains, plan to purchase a large amount, and are willing to increase prices.

　　Liu Dongzhu emphasized that in the later stage, as the price of rice enters a high level, there will be great resistance to continuing to move up.

the main factor of influence:

　　First, the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support the continuous rise of rice prices, and market risks are gradually accumulating.

In recent years, my country's rice supply has been abundant, and the characteristics of phased surplus are obvious. Under the fundamentals of loose supply and demand, the current rice price has exceeded the national auction rice export price. Due to the abundant rice inventory and the post-supply pressure, market risks continue to accumulate.

　　Second, under the background of strong rice and weak rice, the willingness of purchasers to raise prices has generally decreased, and the upward resistance of rice prices has increased.

　　The third is that on November 6, the state restarted the 2018-2019 minimum purchase price mid-to-late indica rice auction sale. After the policy-based rice is released, it will change the mentality of the main grain holders to reluctantly sell.

　　Liu Dongzhu said that on the whole, this year's rice harvest is a foregone conclusion. The current rice price is within a reasonable range, and its recovering rise will help reduce the pressure on rice stocks, mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, and ensure national food security.

Data map: Autumn harvest map of Daxing Farm in Heilongjiang Province.

Photo by Liu Jiahai

——The supply of wheat is guaranteed and the price will remain stable in the later stage

　　Liu Dongzhu said that since the launch of wheat this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the market is bullish on the diversified players. For disaster preparedness, farmers have increased their own grain, and they are not motivated to sell grain. Traders are more willing to stock grain and the source of grain in the market is biased. Driven by the increase in corn prices, wheat prices were significantly higher than the previous year.

　　According to monitoring, in early November, the average incoming price of common wheat in North China was 1.25 yuan/kg, which was 1 cent higher than the opening price and 5 cents higher than the same period last year. The national average ex-factory price of wheat flour was 1.58 yuan/kg, which was basically the same as last year. Flat, belonging to the normal fluctuation range.

　　Liu Dongzhu emphasized that the current wheat inventory in my country is at a historically high level, which can meet the demand for rations for more than one year, and the market supply is fully guaranteed.

At present, the weekly supply of wheat has increased to 4 million tons, the market supply is abundant, and the price of wheat will remain stable in the later period.

　　In addition, the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2021 will be increased by 1 cent per catty, which will release the signal of the country's emphasis on agriculture and grain, which will help mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain. It is expected that the wheat planting area will increase steadily in the next year, laying the foundation for a bumper harvest in the coming year. .

——Prices of domestic soybeans will fall after a large number of them are listed

　　Aiming at the soybean market, Liu Dongzhu analyzed that in recent years, my country's agricultural planting structure has been continuously adjusted and optimized. With the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan, the domestic soybean planting area has increased for 5 consecutive years.

The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that my country's soybean planting area will be 147 million mu in 2020, an increase of 7 million mu over the same period last year.

Despite three typhoons in the Northeast this year, they have little impact on soybean production.

In 2019, the national soybean output was 18.1 million tons, a record high.

It is estimated that this year's soybean output will reach 19.1 million tons, a record high. Compared with 2015, it has increased by more than 6 million tons, an increase of more than 50%.

　　Liu Dongzhu pointed out that the price of domestically produced new soybeans this year has moved higher. The open-scale price of Heilongjiang soybeans is 2.0-2.1 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 3 to 3.5 cents.

In early November, the price of Heilongjiang oil-used soybeans rose to 2.2-2.25 yuan/kg, and the price of edible soybeans was 2.4-2.45 yuan/kg.

It is expected that the price of domestic soybeans will fall after a large number of domestic soybeans are listed.

Domestic soybeans are mainly consumed directly, processed soybean products and soybean protein, and a small amount is used to produce soybean oil.

This year, my country has another good soybean harvest, and domestic edible soybeans can meet market demand.

(Finish)