Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware, November 6, 2020. -

Carolyn Kaster / AP / SIPA

  • After several days of suspense, the results of the American presidential election are finally known: Joe Biden won the 270 voters required to become president, according to various American media.

  • The Democratic candidate will however have to wait until December 14 to be nominated by the voters, then January 21 to take over from Donald Trump in the White House.

  • What to expect during this turbulent time of transition, as the outgoing president says the election is not over?

    Jean-Claude Beaujour, vice-president of the diplomatic association France-Americas, answers the questions of

    20 Minutes

    .

The wait for the results of the US presidential election will have lasted long days, but it has finally come to an end: Democratic candidate Joe Biden has won the number of voters required (270) to succeed incumbent President Donald Trump.

The transition period which has just started, and will end - except for an improbable turnaround - with the nomination of Joe Biden to the White House on January 20, 2021, promises to be eventful.

For

20 Minutes

, Jean-Claude Beaujour, vice-president of the France-Americas diplomatic association and international lawyer, takes stock of the key stages - and obstacles - which should punctuate the American political landscape by then.

What steps still await Joe Biden before becoming the 46th President of the United States?

It is important to clarify that Joe Biden has not yet been elected president: he has been declared as the candidate having won the most large voters.

The electoral college will meet on December 14, so that the electorate will nominate the candidate for whom they have pledged to vote.

It is on this date that the winner of the presidential election will be officially designated by the electoral college.

Subsequently, at the beginning of January, Congress will validate the election of the candidate.

And the swearing-in at the Capitol will take place on January 20.

So much for the calendar.

Can the legal remedies initiated (or announced) by Donald Trump delay this timetable?

No, all election-related disputes must be cleared by December 8.

This includes appeals at the local level, in the states concerned (such as Pennsylvania) as well as at the level of the Supreme Court of the United States, if the appeals go that far.

The judicial system knows how to be reactive for this type of emergency, which means that any appeal of this kind will be settled by December 8.

Do these remedies have a real chance of success?

As with all legal proceedings, there must be a proven fact which is found to infringe the electoral legislation of the State concerned.

These facts must not only be established but have altered the sincerity of the ballot.

The fact that observers were unable to attend the count does not mean that there was fraud.

Any irregularity is not necessarily taken into account: as soon as it has not impacted the sincerity of the ballot (or too weakly), the judge may not take it into account.

For example, a polling station that opens ten minutes late is an irregularity, but it does not affect the sincerity of the ballot.

It is up to the complaining party to provide a solid case.

However, at this stage, I have not seen anything consistent in this direction from Donald Trump and his team.

But it is still a little early to judge.

American opinion feared potential violence or serious tensions in view of the polarization of the two camps, Democrat and Republican, and the wait for the results, against a background of accusations of fraud, may have maintained this climate of concern.

Should we expect overflows in the coming weeks?

Much has been said about the risk of violence following this election, or even civil war.

But I don't believe it for two reasons.

The first is that in the end, in the 50 American states, apart from two or three where the results are disputed, the polls went well.

Today, American institutions are not threatened, the system is functioning properly and the president has not questioned the judiciary.

The proof is that he wants to use it to assert his rights.

I do not believe much in a civil war or in massive excesses because the candidates have no interest in indulging themselves on this slippery slope.

There can be tense demonstrations here or there, but from January 20, the president-elect will have to lead the country: he has no interest in allowing a situation to develop that he would have to deal with afterwards.

It seems unlikely that Donald Trump will retire from American politics, especially after receiving nearly 70 million votes.

Can he play a real role in American public life during the coming term?

President Trump is not one to play the supporting role.

We are in an American-style presidential system: once you are beaten, you get out of the game. Traditionally, even when the president is gone in trouble - like Nixon - he keeps a step back and instead takes a wise role, which ensures the unity of the country.

Jimmy Carter, for example, continued to be involved in peace commitments.

This is traditionally the place reserved for presidents.

It is likely that Donald Trump is not happy with this role.

I don't see him playing the peacemaker afterwards.

Can he become the leader of the Republican Party?

I am not convinced because in the American system, as it is conceived, young senators are waiting their turn to commit to the country.

Remember, Trump won over the Republican Party [before his 2016 election] but was never a choice of the heart.

There has never been a massive membership for him.

I'm not sure he plays a political role in the Republican Party, but that doesn't stop him from staying active in public life.

It has only happened once in the history of the United States that a president was elected for a single term and re-elected after another president's term: this is what happened to Grover Cleveland [at the end of the 19th century].

And at 74, Donald Trump is not the age of Obama when he left the White House, this is a factor to be taken into account for the future.

What most noticeable change can Americans expect from Trump early in Joe Biden's tenure?

Joe Biden is especially committed to joining the Paris agreement on the climate.

He also indicated that he would do everything to manage the coronavirus, so it is likely that this represents a whole part of his public health policy.

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