Despite the frank and sharp American criticism of Ethiopia over its stance on the Renaissance Dam negotiations, and the recent Egyptian-Sudanese rapprochement, these two developments did not help in reaching an agreement or even consensus on the methodology for completing the tripartite negotiations in the next stage.

On October 23, US President Donald Trump directed unprecedented criticism of Ethiopia, and said that Egypt might "bomb the Renaissance Dam" if the outstanding issues about it were not resolved.

In a phone call he had with Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, Trump said that an agreement had been reached on the dam during negotiations sponsored by Washington, "but the Ethiopians violated the agreement, and they could not do so," warning that "the situation is very dangerous, and that Egypt cannot." You continue like this, and you will end up blowing up the dam. "

These criticisms prompted the three countries to renegotiate again despite statements by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that “there is no force that can prevent his country from achieving its planned goals regarding the Renaissance Dam,” following Trump's warning of the possibility of Egypt exploding the dam.

But after several rounds, Egypt announced on Wednesday that the last round of negotiations had failed and that the file was returned to the African Union Commission, noting that the three countries had resumed negotiations late last month after a period of freezing after Ethiopia's initial filling of the dam last July by about 4.9 billion cubic meters. .

A statement by the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation stated that "it became clear during the discussions that the three countries did not agree on the methodology for completing the negotiations in the next stage."

The three countries agreed to submit separate reports to South Africa as the current chairperson of the African Union, provided that the reports include the course of the meetings and the vision of each country on ways to implement the outputs of the two meetings of the African Union Bureau.

De facto policy

Ethiopia is professing the fait accompli policy and betting on it in the Renaissance Dam crisis. This is what Osama Suleiman, a member of the National Defense and National Security Committee in the People's Assembly, sees, who emphasized that "the Ethiopian government has no choice but to continue procrastinating and procrastinating, whatever the pressures."

In his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Suleiman went on to say that the Egyptian-Sudanese rapprochement came late, indicating that strong relations with Ethiopia are no less important than Egypt, and therefore because of Sudan's direct relationship with the two countries, he is in a "good time", and the country's geography makes him in a critical situation because of his proximity. Of the Renaissance Dam, but their closeness will undoubtedly be in the interest of Egypt.

The Egyptian-Sudanese relations witnessed a great convergence on many levels, including the security and the military, amid Ethiopian anticipation, the last of which was the visit of the head of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to Egypt and his meeting with its President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and then the visit of the Egyptian Army Chief of Staff, General Mohamed Farid to Sudan before Several days, to strengthen cooperation in these two areas between the two countries.

Ethiopia's crises put pressure on Egypt

In turn, Sudanese journalist and political analyst Dr. Yasser Mahjoub said, "Ethiopia is always counting on buying time, while it spends its efforts vigorously to impose a fait accompli, and for about 10 years this was until it completed more than 85% of the dam that has become a reality. Imposed. "

According to Mahjoub's estimate - in his statement to Al-Jazeera Net - because of this policy, those who reject the dam have turned over time from rejecting the idea of ​​establishing the dam in principle to the debate over how and the conditions for filling it, and this is considered a great achievement for the Ethiopian government, and despite this, the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is the best option for Egyptians , Because if he falls, the equation may change for the worse.

But Mahjoub ruled out any explicit Sudanese bias towards Egypt, and he attributed this to the fact that Ethiopia suffers from the specter of a civil war in the Tigray region, and the Sudanese believe that Ethiopia may find in the Sudanese lands an easy passage if it thinks about a military treatment of the region’s crisis, as it is difficult to do so through the Ethiopian interior. As well as the strong relations between the two countries.

US sanctions

At the end of last February, the US Treasury announced - after its participation in the negotiations that brought together the three countries in Washington - reaching an agreement that Egypt welcomed and signed with its initials, while Ethiopia withdrew accusing the United States of "not being diplomatic."

In order to put pressure on Ethiopia, the United States announced the suspension of part of its financial aid to Ethiopia in the amount of $ 130 million in early September, after Addis Ababa's unilateral decision to fill the Renaissance Dam despite "no progress" in the tripartite negotiations with Egypt and Sudan.

Implicate Egypt

A former member of the Egyptian National Committee to study the effects of the Renaissance Dam, Muhammad Mohieddin, ruled out that Egypt would be dragged behind the US President’s statements despite the continued failure of negotiations, saying, "The American position on the issue of striking the Renaissance Dam cannot be trusted because it is a dilemma for Egypt."

Mohieddin added in a press statement to Al-Jazeera Net, "Washington is able to close this file by forcing the three countries to reach a binding agreement if it desires the existence of long-term political and security stability in the region, but in fact it wants a degree of instability that plays on its contradictions." ".

On October 13, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, visited the Renaissance Dam, accompanied by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and said that the dam will hold more than 3 times the water in the second phase of filling it.

This is the first time for a foreign president to visit the Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile, and it is also the first visit by the Ethiopian Prime Minister since the first phase of filling the dam last July.

Recently, the commander of the Ethiopian Air Force, Lieutenant General Yilma Merdasa, announced that his country is fully prepared to confront any attack on the Renaissance Dam, and that the air force provides 24-hour special protection for the airspace of the Renaissance Dam.

PM Abiy & President Isaias Afwerki visited Koysha dam & GERD projects - both key national hydroelectric power projects.

The working visits & continued discussions between the two leaders follows the historic normalization of relations achieved b / n Ethiopia & Eritrea in 2018. pic.twitter.com/Z2HSfwNzMB

- Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) October 13, 2020