The electoral map of Florida during the 2016 presidential election between Trump (red) and Clinton (blue).

-

New York Times

From our correspondent in the United States,

The US presidential election is an election that is played out in 50 states, and in the end, Florida wins the right to crown the president.

In 23 elections since 1928, only two candidates have won the presidential election losing Florida (Clinton in 1992 and Kennedy in 1960).

And since the 1990s, the battle has been at loggerheads, with an average gap of two points.

Tuesday night, the suspense should once again be total between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with a 0.9 point lead for the Democrat, according to the poll average.

Cardiac refrain.

For the two candidates, the stakes are different.

Donald Trump has almost no chance of achieving a majority of the 270 Electoral College votes without Florida.

Joe Biden has more leeway, especially if, unlike Hillary Clinton, he wins in Pennsylvania.

One thing is certain, the participation will break records.

Nine million Floridians voted early: that's as much as the total turnout for 2016. On the early poll, there were 113,653 more Democratic Party affiliates than the Republican Party, which seemed to offer Joe a slight advantage. Biden.

But on Tuesday, the Republicans went en masse to the polling stations: at 3:30 p.m., the conservatives reversed the trend and are now 173,200 more numerous.

The independents, who do not claim to belong to any party (2.5 million people) should play the referees.

With a crucial question: will Donald Trump's support crumble among seniors because of the Covid.

FLORIDA PRE-ELECTION NIGHT TALLY



Democratic: 3,545,937 (+113,653)


Republican: 3,432,284


NPA / Other: 2,086,611



TOTAL 9,064,832 pic.twitter.com/YlcyTS2HF6

- UMichVoter (@ umichvoter99) November 3, 2020

A verdict in the night, unless it's too tight

This year Florida has promised to be a recount champion.

Authorities have allowed the early voting to go through the mill several weeks in advance, which should only leave the ballots for the day.

So be careful, the first results, expected from 7 p.m. (1 a.m., Paris time) could give Joe Biden largely in the lead, but Donald Trump should logically go up in the evening.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3 points ahead of 71% of the votes counted before collapsing when votes in West Florida, an ultra-Republican region where polling stations close an hour later, shot up. been counted.

Caution for Florida tonight, see this tweet from 2016: with 71% stripped, Clinton was 3 points ahead and she ended up losing by 1.2 points (because counting of the early vote first, and the offices are closing 1h + late in West Florida, ultra Republican) https://t.co/HCJIjTEWFw

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) November 3, 2020

Despite everything, we should know the winner before 11pm (5am in Paris)… unless the results are too tight.

By the year 2000, the Bush-Gore battle had come to naught.

After a legal battle lasting several weeks, the United States Supreme Court had overturned the planned recount.

And George W. Bush won Florida by… 537 votes.

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