From Little Havana to Little Haiti: "It's going to be very close in Florida"

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Monday, 2 November 2020 - 22:51

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The "pendulum" state of Florida has long been preparing for hurricane season.

El Zeta has given way to Eta, which has already risen to category 2, although it appears to be heading towards Central America.

There are already 12 storms this year, although none can be compared to the one that will hit the coasts, the interior and even the subtropical wetland of the Everglades on November 3, at the gates of Miami.

Florida will once again be in the eye of the political storm, and the water can spill over to one side or the other depending on the changing wind.

Donald Trump prevailed here four years ago over Hillary Clinton by just 1.2% of the vote;

The Real Clear Politics poll of polls now gives Joe Biden a Pyrrhic lead and within the margin of error.

The victory of one or the other, in one of the most precious trophies of the big night, rests essentially on three legs: the

in Miami and surrounding areas (which for the first time reaches 17% of the census in the entire state),

in enclaves like Jacksonville (barely 13% overall, but enough to unbalance the balance) and

in strongholds like Fort Myers and Naples, more likely this time to divide their preferences between the two septuagenarian candidates .

"It's going to be very close in Florida, anything can happen,"

predicts Ernesto Romero, scissors in hand, at the Barbershop on Calle Ocho in Little Havana.

Wearing an old

sweater

, the hairdresser does not hide his preferences and challenges the journalist to take the test: "You ask the Cubans. Don't listen to those who say that Trump is going to devastate our community again. He has his parish, it is true, but there are many of us who do not believe in his lies and we want to get out of this mess ".

"That guy, Donald Trump

,

corrects a client who prefers not to give his name.

"He has been surrounded by women and money all his life, for a reason. He says what he thinks and bluntly, and that is what the Americans like. He

, what do you want What do I tell you? "

The improvised gatherings in hairdressers and restaurants with outdoor tables such as El Santo ("We are open, pussy!") Have replaced the traditional domino games in the Máximo Gómez Park, closed by the coronavirus.

The overflowing life and chatty music of Calle Ocho have given way to a strange desolation, as if the hurricane had already passed.

Faithful to Democrat Joe Biden await Kamala Harris.

In 2016, Trump swept Hillary 54% to 41% among voters with Cuban blood

.

According to the Cuban Research Institute of the University of Florida, the support is even more enthusiastic this time and has grown to 59% in the community.

Altogether, however, Cubans barely reach 5% of the 14 million registered voters in the state.

Analysts highlight how precisely we are in the midst of the decline of the Cuban "monopoly" in Miami-Dade County, as evidenced by the results of the 2018 congressional elections. Of the half a million new Latino voters registered in Florida in the last four For years,

.

They have been expressly addressed by Trump in a campaign designed to discredit Biden as the "socialist" candidate.

In an ad supported by the America First Action Political Action Committee, the son of Cuban exiles José 'Pepi' Cancio warns voters:

.

Without reaching the threats of tension and violence that have occurred in other states, Florida has also become one of the most polarized states in the union.

Santiago Morales, 78, a veteran of the failed Bay of Pigs "invasion" and a successful entrepreneur, has become an emblem of the Democratic counter-campaign.

"I am concerned about autocratic tendencies"

"There are no conditions in the United States for socialism,"

Morales told Univisión.

"But if you are not in Trump's circle, everyone is a communist ... They use that word so much that it loses all meaning. What worries me is Trump's autocratic and fascist tendencies."

We leave Little Havana behind and make a fleeting foray into Little Haiti, where candidate Biden passed a month ago, aware that the small difference in Florida can ultimately be made by the participation of the black community, which contributed so much to the two local Obama victories.

Haiti has returned to the forefront due to the acceleration of deportations in the middle of the campaign and in the middle of the pandemic.

Few organizations have done as much to give voice and presence to the black community in the state as The Black Collective.

Co-founded by Haitian-Dominican Francesca Menes, the organization has gone out of its way like never before to register and facilitate early voting, with trilingual guides (in English, Spanish and Creole) who have reached every corner of Little Haiti.

has also been another of Joe Biden's targets.

According to his campaign estimates, if black community participation rose to 73% (up from 68% four years ago) Florida could be within reach.

The third leg of the table has been the counties with a strong retired presence, such as Fort Myers or Naples, where Trump won in 2020 by more than 20 points and in which Biden now has -by generational affinity- considerably more pull than the one that had Hillary in his day.

recognizes Annisa Karim, head of the Democratic Party delegation in Collier County.

"But we also have to play defense wherever we can."

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