Using data from 45 countries to build a model
Europe to assess the transmission rate and severity of new crown infections
International war "epidemic" operation
Science and Technology Daily, Beijing, November 3 (Reporter Zhang Mengran) The British "Nature" magazine published a new model study on the 3rd. British and French scientists used data from 45 countries to construct a model that can be used to assess the level of infection and response in various countries At the same time, this result also shows how to combine serological findings and death data to assess the transmission rate and severity of new coronavirus infections.
Monitoring the level of transmission of the new coronavirus and the severity of the infection is an important means to guide the response to this epidemic, but due to inconsistent existing data, it is very challenging to do so.
A serological survey is an estimate of the percentage of people in the population who produce antibodies to the new coronavirus; different data may be obtained according to different detection capabilities.
The death data is considered a reliable indicator of the spread of the new coronavirus and the severity of the infection, but these data may also be inconsistent, depending on the location of the outbreak.
For example, compared with the general population, the infection rate and death rate in nursing homes are abnormally high.
In order to study infection patterns in depth, scientists from the University of Cambridge in the UK and the Pasteur Institute in France used data on deaths from new coronary pneumonia in 45 countries and the results of 22 national serological surveys to create a model.
They estimated the death rate from infection-the proportion of people infected with the virus that might die as a result-which can be used to compare reported and expected deaths.
The relative mortality risk of people under 65 by age is consistent across countries; children aged 5-9 have the lowest risk of infection-related death, and the infection mortality rate increases by 0.59% for every 5 years of age increase.
The team estimated the expected number of deaths for people over 65 without infection in a nursing home.
They then compared these estimates with the number of reported deaths in this age group and found differences in numbers between countries.
For example, the number of deaths among people over 65 reported in South America is lower than expected, which may be due to underreporting of deaths from new coronary pneumonia among the elderly.
At the same time, in most European countries, the reported deaths of people over 65 are higher than expected due to multiple outbreaks in nursing homes.
The researchers concluded that model-based estimates of infection rates may help identify countries where vulnerable populations may experience excess deaths.