China News Agency, Washington, November 2nd. Title: Decoding the 2020 US General Election: Two Key "Swing States" Determine the Victory

　　China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　"Swing states" have always been the weather vane for observing the US presidential election, and 2020 is no exception.

But this year, the two states of the United States, one north and one south, are particularly worthy of attention-Florida and Pennsylvania.

On October 31, local time, Virginia ushered in the last day of early voting for the 2020 US general election.

The picture shows an early polling station in Arlington, Virginia.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　The US presidential election implements an indirect electoral system called the Electoral College system.

The 538 electors representing 50 states and the capital, Washington, DC, form the electoral college to vote, and only those presidential candidates who have obtained at least 270 electoral votes can enter the White House.

　　Looking back at the recent election maps, American voters have basically formed a political spectrum of blueish east and west coasts (supporting the Democratic Party) and reddish central regions (supporting the Republican Party).

Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and other regions with more than 15 electoral votes often become the "swing states" that determine the president's ownership.

　　There is one day left until the polling day of the general election.

Although the Democratic presidential candidate Biden leads U.S. President Trump in national polls, their elections in the aforementioned "swing states" are mixed.

If the statistical error of 2%-3% is added, the support rate of the two is even more difficult to distinguish.

　　But no matter from the perspective of campaign strategy, capital investment or the density of momentum, Florida is to Trump, what Pennsylvania is to Biden, it is a key "swing state" that cannot be lost.

Data map: US President Trump.

　　Four years ago, he won Florida and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other northern states, which laid a victory for Trump.

At that time, Trump's advantage over Pennsylvania was less than one percentage point, breaking the Democratic Party's record of six consecutive victories in the state in the presidential election.

　　Florida sits on 29 electoral votes. The state's voter structure is diverse and the overall political orientation is slightly red.

This is where Trump's election vote is registered.

On June 18, 2019, he officially announced his re-election campaign in Orlando, the state.

In October of this year, he went to Florida three times to build momentum. Among them, the first rally after the end of the new crown quarantine was arranged here.

　　"Win Florida or lose the election." The Associated Press analyzed that Trump's frequency of campaign rallies highlighted the importance of the state for his re-election.

"It is almost certain that Trump would not have won 270 electoral votes without winning Florida."

　　Biden is clearly not prepared to commit the Democratic Party's mistake of "underestimating the enemy" four years ago.

Biden was born in a small town in northeastern Pennsylvania. The entire campaign cycle started in Pennsylvania and ended in Pennsylvania.

He officially launched the presidential campaign in Philadelphia on May 18, 2019, and in the last two days before the general election, he chose to build a solid vote in Pennsylvania.

　　Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, but it has a linkage effect with Michigan (16 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes), which are also in the old industrial area.

According to the statistics of Kantar/CMAG, a campaign analysis agency, Biden has invested nearly US$150 million in the above-mentioned three states' campaigns, which is equivalent to 30% of his campaign's total national advertising expenditures since June.

Data map: On February 2, local time, Biden held a rally in Iowa.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　American media analysis pointed out that if the elections in other states are the same as four years ago, Biden can win the election this year as long as he wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

　　Obviously, both sides understand the importance of these two states.

On November 2, former US President Barack Obama will go to Florida twice within a week to help Biden.

According to the New York Times, in recent years, the significant increase in the population of minorities such as Latinos is changing the voter structure in Florida.

Obama's visit helped to increase the voting enthusiasm of minority voters in the state.

　　Five of Trump's 14 campaign rallies in the last three days were arranged in Pennsylvania.

The last Penn State campaign on November 2 was in Scranton, the town where Biden was born.

Trump seized on Biden's call for the phasing out of fossil fuels and launched a fierce attack, trying to get the manufacturing workers here to stand on his side.

　　"In every presidential election, there is always a state that determines the winner." The "Washington Post" combed and found that since 1920, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan have become this key "swing state" with the highest frequency.

"2016 is Pennsylvania, and it may still be this year." (End)