Data mining

Have the employment expectations of Chinese college graduates changed before and after the epidemic?

  Employment and the epidemic are intertwined with social pressure in our country, and all walks of life have paid unprecedented attention to the employment of college graduates under the impact of the epidemic.

Before and after the epidemic, has the employment expectation place, employment expectation salary, employment expectation unit nature, employment expectation industry, and employment expectation occupation category changed for college graduates?

  The “Comprehensive Survey of Employment Situation of College Graduates in my country During the Epidemic” project team led by the Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education and China Rural Education Development Institute of Northeast Normal University tried to answer the above questions.

  The research team cooperated with Changsha Cloud Research Technology Co., Ltd. and Beijing Xinjincheng Data Technology Co., Ltd., in the important graduation season for college graduates-April to June 2020, to college graduates from 34 provincial administrative regions across the country A random sampling survey was launched, and a total of 13,767 student samples and 13,738 valid samples were collected.

The subjects of this survey included the age group of 18 to 50 years old, and 87% of the sample size gathered in the age group of 21-24 years old.

There are 1,660, 11,395 and 683 graduates from colleges, undergraduates, and masters and above.

The university where the fresh graduates sample data includes first-class university construction universities (2.10%), first-class university construction universities (2.30%), national key universities (2.50%), provincial key universities (19.00%), and ordinary undergraduate universities (68.90%) and higher vocational colleges (5.10%).

The overall focus of employment has shifted to second-tier cities as the most potential winners

  On the whole, there is little difference in the ideal employment expectations of Chinese college graduates before and after the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but the internal structure fluctuates greatly, and the focus of employment expectations has shifted slightly.

Prior to the epidemic, the proportion of places where employment is expected to be selected from high to low was second-tier cities (31.42%), new first-tier cities (29.15%), prefecture-level cities (18.07%), first-tier cities (14.11%), county towns (5.67%), and townships ( 1.09%) and villages (0.20%). After the epidemic, the proportions of employment expectations are in the second-tier cities (32.13%), new first-tier cities (28.39%), prefecture-level cities (19.66%), and first-tier cities (11.56). %), counties (6.50%), towns (1.09%), villages (0.17%).

  Before and after the epidemic, the proportion of choosing second-tier cities, prefecture-level cities, and counties as ideal employment prospects increased slightly, and the increasing proportions were prefecture-level cities, counties, and second-tier cities in descending order.

The proportion of choosing first-tier cities, new first-tier cities, and villages declined slightly, while the proportion of choosing townships remained flat.

It can be seen that before and after the epidemic, the focus of employment expectations for recent graduates in my country's colleges and universities has shifted slightly. The relatively highest proportions of outflow and inflow of employment expectations are in first-tier cities and prefecture-level cities.

  The research team further studied the internal changes in the employment expectations of recent college graduates, and found that the consistent choices of employment expectations before and after the epidemic were: second-tier cities, prefecture-level cities, new first-tier cities, county towns, first-tier cities, and towns. And the village.

Among them, the relatively highest rate of change is the fresh graduates who chose villages before the epidemic. 65.22% of them changed after the epidemic. 46.67% of the changers chose a second-tier city, and 20.00% chose another city. The county seat; followed by fresh graduates who chose Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan before the epidemic. After the epidemic, 37.50% of them chose the new first-tier cities.

  Among the cities with employment expectations above prefecture-level cities, the rate of change in descending order is first-tier cities, new first-tier cities, prefecture-level cities, and second-tier cities. Among them, the highest flow of first-tier cities is new first-tier cities and second-tier cities. The highest flow of first-tier cities are second-tier cities and prefecture-level cities, the highest flow of second-tier cities are prefecture-level cities and second-tier cities, and the highest flow of prefecture-level cities are second-tier cities and counties.

  In general, the second-tier cities are those with the least fluctuations, the strongest stability, the least outflow but relatively high inflow willingness among college graduates before and after the epidemic.

It can be seen that the epidemic has caused the overall focus of employment of college graduates to shift downward. At the same time, second-tier cities have become the most potential winners in the upward and downward changes in the willingness of college graduates to choose employment.

Employment expects that the salary change is not large, more than 80% concentrated in 3001-8000 yuan

  Before the epidemic, the expected salary of fresh graduates from universities in my country was 1,000-3,000 yuan, 3001-5,000 yuan, 5001-8,000 yuan, 8001-10000 yuan, 1,0001-15,000 yuan, and 15,000 yuan. The proportions of which were 4.48%, 40.11%, and 41.77, respectively. %, 9.54%, 2.20%, 1.90%. After the epidemic, the proportions were 4.37%, 41.84%, 39.88%, 9.17%, 2.38%, and 2.35%.

It can be seen that the overall change in expected salary is not much different, and more than 80% of the fresh graduates expect salary between 3001-8000 yuan.

  The research team conducted a study on the internal structural changes in the employment expectation salary selection of college graduates, and found that the stability of the employment expectation salary of graduates before and after the epidemic was 15,000 yuan or more (90.37%), 3001-5,000 yuan (82.05%). , 5001-8000 yuan (75.76%), 8001-10000 yuan (61.39%), 1000-3000 yuan (61.21%), 10001-15000 yuan (60.32%).

Before the epidemic, graduates whose employment expectation salary was 15,000 yuan or more still chose the most stable proportion after the epidemic, and their consistency reached more than 90%; before the epidemic, the employment expectation salary was 8001-15000 yuan and 1,000-3000 yuan for graduation. Nearly 40% of students expect salary changes after the epidemic, with the highest rate of change and the worst stability.

Among them, the most fluctuating range is the graduates whose employment expectation salary is 1000-3000 yuan. Although 38.79% of this group of graduates have chosen alternative employment expectation salary after the epidemic, 83.42% of the alternatives choose. For 3001-5000 yuan, the alternative is the highest degree of agglomeration.

  The expected salary of fresh graduates, who account for more than 80%, is 3001-8000 yuan, so we need to focus on the fluctuation of expected salary before and after the epidemic in this interval.

The research team found that, with the exception of graduates whose employment expectation salary was 3001-5000 yuan before the epidemic, other groups of graduates whose employment expectation salary after the epidemic were also selected as 3001-5000 yuan, from highest to lowest are the expected employment salary before the epidemic For graduates of 1000-3000 yuan (32.36%), 5001-8000 yuan (17.45%), 10001-15000 yuan (1.98%), 8001-10000 yuan (1.37%), 15000 yuan or more (0.92%).

The expected salary of employment is 5001-8,000 yuan for other groups of graduates, from highest to lowest, the expected salary before the epidemic is 8001-10000 yuan (28.18%), 3001-5000 yuan (13.23%), 1000-3000 yuan ( 3.31%), 1,0001-15,000 yuan (3.17%), and 15,000 yuan or more (1.38%) graduates.

  In the same way, after the epidemic, the expected salary for employment is 1,000-3,000 yuan for other groups of graduates, from high to low, the expected salary before the epidemic is 3001-5,000 yuan (3.72%), 15,000 yuan or more (1.38%), 5001 -8000 (0.23%), 8001-10000 (0.18%), 10001-15000 (0.00%).

After the epidemic, the expected salary for employment is 8001-10000 yuan for other groups of graduates, from highest to lowest, the expected salary before the epidemic is 10001-15000 yuan (24.21%), 5001-8000 yuan (5.81%), and more than 15000 yuan (2.29%), 1,000-3,000 yuan (0.97%), 3001-5,000 yuan (0.67%) of other groups of graduates.

After the epidemic, the expected salary for employment after the epidemic is another group of graduates of 1,0001-15,000 yuan, from high to low, the expected salary before the epidemic is 8001-10000 yuan (7.23%), 15,000 yuan or more (3.67%), 1,000-3000 Yuan (0.78%), 5001-8000 Yuan (0.46%), 3001-5000 Yuan (0.17%).

After the epidemic, other groups of graduates with employment expectation salary of 15,000 or more are selected. From highest to lowest, the expected salary before the epidemic is 10001-15000 yuan (10.32%), 8001-10000 yuan (1.65%), 1000-3000 yuan ( 1.36%), 5001-8000 yuan (0.29%), 3001-5000 yuan (0.15%) of other groups of graduates.

  While the employment expectation salary of college graduates before and after the epidemic has generally maintained relatively high stability, it still shows an obvious intermediate agglomeration effect of employment expectation after the epidemic.

Among the graduates who expect salary changes before and after the epidemic, take 5000 yuan as the boundary. Graduates with an expectation salary of less than 5000 yuan before the epidemic mainly increase to 5000 yuan after the epidemic, and graduates with an expectation salary of more than 5000 yuan before the epidemic After the outbreak of the epidemic, it mainly decreases to 5,000 yuan.

Unit changes are "rationalized" and "kindness" changes are the main focus

  Before the epidemic, the proportion of fresh graduates in China's colleges and universities looking forward to the nature of the nature of the employment selection ratio, from high to low, were state-owned enterprises (22.24%), middle and junior education units (18.44%), medical and health units (13.17%), and party and government agencies (9.35%) , Private enterprises (9.21%), other institutions (8.50%), higher education units (8.38%), foreign-funded enterprises (sino-foreign joint ventures, Sino-foreign cooperative enterprises, wholly foreign-owned enterprises, 4.90%), scientific research and design units (4.18%), urban communities (0.72%), troops (0.59%) and rural organized villages (0.33%).

After the epidemic, the selection ratios from high to low are state-owned enterprises (21.61%), middle and elementary education units (18.90%), medical and health units (13.21%), party and government agencies (9.84%), private enterprises (9.34%), and others. Institutions (8.92%), higher education units (7.87%), foreign-funded enterprises (sino-foreign joint ventures, Sino-foreign cooperative enterprises, wholly foreign-owned enterprises, 4.29%), scientific research and design units (3.67%), urban communities (1.13) %), troops (0.86%), and rural organized villages (0.36%).

  In general, the nature of employment expectations for college graduates before and after the epidemic is stable and consistent. The proportion of graduates who expect employment from state-owned enterprises, higher education institutions, foreign-funded enterprises, and scientific research and design institutions has declined slightly, and they look forward to employment. The proportion of graduates from middle and elementary education units, medical and health units, party and government agencies, private enterprises, other institutions, urban communities, military units, and rural organized villages increased slightly, but the change was not significant.

  Looking through the internal structure of the selection of employment expectation units for fresh graduates before and after the epidemic, the research team found that the stability of employment expectation units was medical and health units, elementary and middle school education units, party and government agencies, state-owned enterprises, higher education units, and others. Institutions, private enterprises, scientific research and design units, foreign-funded enterprises, urban communities, military units, and rural organized villages.

Among them, the poorest stability of employment expectation units for fresh graduates before and after the epidemic was in rural organized villages. After the epidemic, 65.79% of graduates chose employment expectation units. The main flows were urban communities, state-owned enterprises, and the party in descending order. Government agencies, middle school education units, etc.; 42.65% of graduates who were expecting to choose troops before the epidemic flowed from high to low mainly to party and government agencies, middle school education units, state-owned enterprises, higher education units, etc. after the epidemic.

  In general, the changes in the nature of employment expectations of college graduates before and after the epidemic showed "rational" characteristics, and the changes were mainly related to the changes in the nature of the unit. For example, 25.63% of the graduates who chose state-owned enterprises as the expected employment units before the epidemic The nature of the expected change of units is mainly due to private enterprises; 33.27% of the graduates who chose private enterprises as the expected employment units before the epidemic, the nature of the expected changes are mainly to the state-owned enterprises; 12.40% chose the primary and secondary education units as their expectations before the epidemic For graduates of employment units, the nature of the expected change of the unit is mainly to other institutions and higher education units; 28.75% of the graduates who chose higher education units as expected employment units before the epidemic, the nature of the change expected unit is mainly to flow to the middle and junior education units .

Education, health, and social work have minimal fluctuations in real estate, accommodation, and catering.

  Prior to the epidemic, the proportion of fresh graduates in China’s colleges and universities looking forward to employment in the industries to choose from high to low was education (32.48%); health and social work (13.14%); financial industry (8.88%), information transmission, software and information technology services ( 8.15%); culture, sports and entertainment (7.04%); manufacturing (5.67%); public management, social security and social organization (4.87%); scientific research and technical services (2.97%); electricity, heat, Gas and water production and supply industry (2.84%); agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.39%); construction industry (2.17%); wholesale and retail industry (1.90%); transportation, storage and postal industry (1.61%) ; Accommodation and catering industry (1.47%); water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry (1.13%); real estate industry (0.79%); leasing and business service industry (0.71%); military (0.69%); residential services, construction And other service industries (0.48%); mining (0.35%); international organizations (0.27%).

  After the epidemic, the descending order is education (33.23%); health and social work (13.42%); information transmission, software and information technology service industry (8.11%); finance industry (7.85%); culture, sports and entertainment industry (6.36%); public management, social security and social organizations (5.72%); manufacturing industry (5.59%); electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry (3.02%); scientific research and technical service industry (2.81%) ;Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery (2.37%); construction industry (2.02%); wholesale and retail industry (1.87%); transportation, storage and postal industry (1.56%); accommodation and catering industry (1.23%); Water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry (1.13%); military (0.91%); real estate industry (0.74%); leasing and business service industry (0.67%); mining industry (0.55%); residential services, construction and other services Industry (0.54%); international organizations (0.31%).

  In general, little changes have occurred before and after the epidemic.

Education, health and social work, information transmission, software and information technology service industries, financial industry, culture, sports and entertainment are the top five employment prospects most popular among fresh graduates.

In leasing and business services, mining, resident services, construction and other service industries, international organizations are the last four employment prospects for college graduates.

  The research team analyzed the internal structure of the employment expectation industry selection of Chinese college graduates before and after the epidemic, and found that the stability of the employment expectation industry was: health and social work, education, information transmission, software and information technology service industry, and manufacturing industry. Financial industry, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry, public management, social security and social organization, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry, culture, sports and entertainment industry, construction industry, scientific research and technical service industry, Transportation, storage and postal industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, military, international organizations, residential services, repairs and other services, wholesale and retail, mining, leasing and business services, accommodation and catering, real estate industry.

  Employment expectation before and after the epidemic, the real estate industry, the accommodation and catering industry, as well as the leasing and business service industry with relatively poor industry stability. After the epidemic, graduates choose education, finance, information transmission, software and information technology service industries. The ratio is relatively higher.

The education, health, and social work industries have become the industries with the least fluctuations, the strongest stability, and the least outflow before and after the epidemic, but the relatively highest willingness to inflow.

Marketing type positions have the worst stability, functional type positions are the most popular

  The proportion of job categories expected by fresh graduates before the epidemic, from high to low, are functional types of positions (such as administration, personnel, finance, etc., 37.53%), other types of positions (17.56%), and technology research and development positions (such as R&D engineers, testing Etc., 15.32%), management type positions (9.95%), operation planning positions (such as operations, products, design, etc., 8.58%), service type positions (such as customer service, waiters, shop assistants, etc., 3.28%), production operations positions ( Such as occupational production positions, etc., 3.13%).

After the epidemic and before the epidemic, the selection ratios are exactly the same. The selection ratios are from high to low: functional positions (37.65%), other types of positions (18.08%), technical research and development positions (14.67%), management positions (9.79%), and operation planning Position (8.40%), service type position (3.53%), production operation position (3.18%).

  Among the occupational posts expected by graduates after the epidemic, the proportion of functional posts, other types of posts, marketing posts, service posts, and production operation posts increased slightly, and the selection of technical research and development posts, management posts, and operation planning posts The proportion is slightly reduced, but the change is still not significant.

  Before and after the epidemic, the stability of job categories for college graduates' employment expectations, from high to low, are: other types of positions, functional types of positions, technology research and development positions, operations planning positions, management types, service types, production operations, and marketing types. post.

Among them, the stability of marketing-type positions is the worst. 42.96% of the graduates who chose this item before the epidemic, the expected occupational positions after the epidemic, from high to low, are mainly: functional positions, technical research and development positions, and operations planning positions. , Management type positions.

Functional posts are the most popular occupational categories for fresh graduates before and after the epidemic. Whether it is the absolute number of employment expectations, the stability, or the inflow of graduates after the epidemic, the rate of attracting graduates is the highest.

  (The author is a professor at Northeast Normal University, a top-notch young talent in the National Ten Thousand Talents Program)

  Editor: We hope that this is a real round table meeting, as close as possible to rationality, as far as possible to stay away from saliva, as constructive as possible, and to talk about education issues that have been debated since the beginning of prenatal education.

To this end, we have pulled out an "education round table."

  jiaoyuyuanzhuo@sina.cn, waiting for your speech.

  Li Tao Source: China Youth Daily