"Fear of shocks": what can Saakashvili's attempts to "rock the situation" in Georgia after the parliamentary elections lead to?

The parliamentary elections held in Georgia were

fair, peaceful, democratic and safe.

This was stated by the President of the Republic Salome Zurabishvili. 

“Georgia was able to hold peaceful, fair, safe and democratic elections.

We can say the European elections.

Despite the most difficult and unprecedented challenges, yesterday's elections once again showed the whole world that our country continues its democratic path, ”the politician said.

Zurabishvili also stressed that the voting took place without significant violations.

At the same time, former Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili called on the local opposition to protest.

“I appeal to all representatives of the opposition parties, no matter what results you got, now is not the time for competition, the voice of each of you must be protected,” the politician said on the air of the Mtavari Archi TV channel.

He also believes that now the Georgian opposition should concentrate on forming a coalition in parliament against Bidzina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream party.

• Mikhail Saakashvili

• Reuters

• © Valentyn Ogirenko

Let us remind you that Mikheil Saakashvili became president of Georgia in 2004 as a result of the Rose Revolution.

In 2013, he left Georgia, and several criminal cases were opened in the country against him on charges of abuse of office and embezzlement of public funds.

The politician settled in Ukraine and took an active part in local politics. 

However, Saakashvili hopes to eventually return to Georgia, where the United National Movement, which he founded, continues to operate.

Earlier this organization announced plans to make its leader the head of government in case of victory in the elections.

The ex-president, in turn, announced that he is ready to become prime minister for a two-year term in order to put Georgia on the path of development. 

However, on the eve of Saakashvili said that he did not intend to head the government.

“I am not interested in what position I will take.

The main thing on which we must now focus our attention is on creating a government that acts in the interests of the people, ”the politician said.

The protest action of the Georgian opposition, initiated by Saakashvili, began on Sunday afternoon in Tbilisi in front of the parliament building.

Its participants demand early parliamentary elections.

"The elections were not valid, we once again declare that we do not recognize the results of these elections and demand the holding of new parliamentary elections, early elections," RIA Novosti quoted one of the activists as saying. 

Earlier, a member of the opposition National Movement, Nika Melia, called the past elections a "war".

“And we did not lose this war,” the politician added.

Protest potential

However, experts doubt that opposition protests can lead to any serious consequences.

As political scientist and expert on the South Caucasus Andrei Areshev noted in a commentary on RT, Saakashvili "will try to rock the situation," but he does not have enough support in Georgia to provoke serious instability and return to the country.

“Some of his associates left Saakashvili earlier, so his resources are not so great.

Moreover, Georgian politicians and security officials understand the danger of disorder.

Saakashvili undoubtedly enjoys the support of external forces, such as Turkey and Great Britain.

With the help of Saakashvili, foreign players would like to aggravate Russian-Georgian relations.

However, he is unlikely to be able to mobilize the entire Georgian opposition around him, ”Areshev said.

According to him, Saakashvili and his party are working to radicalize public sentiment.

For this, the opposition exploits the problems existing in the country.

"But despite this, Saakashvili's popularity is at the level of 10-15%," Areshev added.

• Pre-election rally of the opposition United National Movement party on October 29, 2020

• AFP

• © Vano Shlamov

A similar point of view is shared by Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the Center for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security.

“Saakashvili has more opponents than supporters in Georgia, so the protests he organized will hardly lead to a coup.

The Georgian opposition is not united, and Saakashvili is not the main figure for it, "the expert explained in an interview with RT.

The head of the CEC of Georgia Tamar Zhvania called the accusations of election fraud made by the opposition "frivolous".

“The assessments implying that someone changed something along the way are not serious - be it the protocol or the CEC.

This is an absurdity and assessments of the last century, which developed Georgia has erased from its history, ”Zhvania said.

She also added that more than 80,000 representatives of political parties, about 47,000 local observers, 6,000 media representatives, as well as international observers observed the elections.

The republic's Ministry of Internal Affairs opened 12 criminal cases in connection with crimes during the parliamentary elections, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Kakhaber Sabanadze said on November 1.

In addition, proceedings have begun on 16 administrative offenses.

For example, the reason for such an investigation was a scuffle that took place near a polling station on Saturday between supporters of the ruling party and the opposition.

During the fight, journalists were injured, and the police detained nine people.

Let us remind you that the elections to the Georgian unicameral parliament were held on Saturday, October 31.

They were attended by 48 parties and two political blocs.

The main rivals in the elections were the Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party, which has been ruling since 2012, and the United National Movement, founded by Saakashvili, which united with several parties to form the United Opposition - Strength in Unity electoral bloc.

Elections to the Georgian parliament are held according to a mixed system.

Earlier, 77 out of 150 deputies were elected by proportional, 73 - by majority.

In 2020, this ratio has changed: now 120 deputies will be elected under the proportional system, and only 30 under the majoritarian system.

When voting under the majoritarian system, the winner is the candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes in the constituency.

If no candidate gets the required number of votes, a second round is announced.

At the same time, there is a fairly low entry barrier in the elections in Georgia - to get into parliament, a party needs to gain more than 1% of the votes.

To form a government, a party must collectively secure at least 40.54% of the popular vote.

Otherwise, the parliamentary factions must agree on a coalition cabinet.

If politicians fail to come to an agreement, re-elections are called in the country.

According to the CEC of Georgia, according to the results of counting votes from 97.09% of polling stations, nine political forces entered the parliament.

• Sessions of the Parliament of Georgia

• RIA News

• © Alexander Imedashvili

According to preliminary data, "Georgian Dream" is gaining 48.05% of the vote, the "United Opposition - Strength in Unity" bloc gets 27.07% of the vote.

As previously reported by the Georgian CEC, the turnout in the elections was 56.11%.

At the same time, the second round of elections will be held in eight single-mandate constituencies of Tbilisi, since none of the candidates could gain more than 50% of the votes.

In addition, re-elections will take place in four of the twelve single-member constituencies outside the capital.

Stability request

The opposition bloc "National Movement - Strength in Unity", even before the announcement of the preliminary results of the voting, began negotiations with other opposition parties on the formation of a coalition in parliament.

This was announced by one of the leaders of the bloc Zaal Udumashvili.

At the same time, the executive secretary of the Georgian Dream Irakli Kobakhidze announced that the party had won a parliamentary majority.

“We have already won 62 mandates according to proportional lists.

As for the single-mandate constituencies, at least 14 (party candidates -

) win in the first round, which means that we already have 76 mandates, ”Kobakhidze said. 

• Office of the Association "Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia" in Tbilisi

• RIA News

• © Alexander Imedashvili

According to experts, "Georgian Dream" has every chance to remain the ruling party in Georgia.

“With regard to the accusations that the opposition puts forward, in these elections they carefully monitored that the calculation was correct, there were no falsifications in favor of the Georgian Dream, therefore this result completely coincides with the mood of the population,” Silaev said.

Andrey Areshev adheres to a similar point of view.

He recalled that the victory of the "Georgian Dream" was previously predicted by sociological services.

Speaking about the results of the parliamentary elections, the expert drew attention to the fact that the political mosaic of Georgia has become more variegated due to the lowering of the passing barrier to 1% from the previously existing level of 5%.

“The fact that Georgian Dream has become a leader is natural, since the population is afraid of a new social split and instability.

These phenomena are associated with Saakashvili and his supporters.

While citizens are also disappointed with the ruling party, the fear of upheaval is stronger.

Against the background of the general political turbulence for the post-Soviet space, the victory of the "Georgian Dream" should contribute to the relative calm in the country, "Areshev believes.