Xinhua News Agency, Washington, October 30 (International Observation) Mailed votes increase uncertainty in the U.S. election

  Xinhua News Agency reporter Deng Xianlai and Xu Yuanxingyue

  According to statistics from the "U.S. Election Plan" website that tracks voting in the U.S. election, as of the evening of October 30, Eastern Time, the number of voters who voted early in the 2020 U.S. election has exceeded 86 million, of which more than 55 million have been mailed.

  Affected by the new crown epidemic, the number of voters who choose to vote by mail has increased sharply, which has become a major feature of this year's US election.

However, the security of postal voting has been questioned, causing controversy between the Republican and Democratic parties.

Analysts believe that the surge in postal voting may prevent election results from being produced quickly, and even trigger judicial disputes, which may have serious impacts on American politics, economy, and society.

  Mail vote surge

  Judging from the history of the US general elections, mail voting is not a new thing. It appeared as early as the American Civil War, but in general it did not account for much in the past general elections.

However, this year, due to the raging new crown epidemic, many voters chose the method of mailing ballots for their own safety, resulting in a surge in the number of mailed votes.

The current 55 million mailed votes have reached 40% of the total votes in the 2016 general election, and this number will increase in the future.

  With regard to mail voting, the Republican and Democratic parties have completely different attitudes.

Beginning in March this year, the current Republican President Trump seeking reelection has repeatedly publicly questioned the legality and safety of the mail voting procedure, believing that mail voting will lead to large-scale fraud, and warned Republican voters to be wary of the Democratic Party. The possibility of "stealing" election victory by mailing votes.

He himself also "showed up his opinion", went to the polling station to vote and emphasized the safety of on-site voting.

  The Democratic Party is open to voting by mail.

Democratic presidential candidate Biden said in the first presidential debate that he encouraged voters to vote in the best possible way.

  Affected by the above-mentioned attitudes of the two parties, far more Democratic voters than Republican voters choose to vote by mail.

Statistics from the "U.S. Election Plan" show that up to now, among the states that need to register partisanship when registering voters, more than 15 million registered Democratic voters have returned ballots, while only more than 8 million registered Republican voters.

  The result may be "late"

  Since there are many intermediate links in mail voting, the probability of problems is greater than on-site voting, which may have a certain impact on the election results.

For example, postal voting is more likely to produce irregular or damaged invalid votes, and the voting success rate is lower than on-site voting; the United States Postal Service has previously introduced reforms such as reducing the number of mailboxes and shortening the working hours of postmen in response to the shortage of funds, which may cause delays in postal votes. The worry that the delivery cannot be counted in time.

  At the same time, the surge in mailed votes will also affect the counting of votes.

Because the ticket counting procedure for mailed tickets is more complicated than on-site tickets, and additional links such as opening the envelope and checking for validity are added, it takes much more time than on-site tickets.

In addition, in response to large-scale mail voting, 22 states in the United States and Washington, DC have issued regulations, as long as the mailed ballots are postmarked no later than November 3 on the election day and sent to the polling station within the "grace period" thereafter , It will be recorded.

All these make it possible that the results of this general election may not be announced from the day of the election to the early morning of the next day as in the past.

  Of course, if Trump or Biden has established a clear advantage in a certain state early, even if the vote counting is delayed, it will not have an impact on the timely release of the state’s election results. In the “Crimson State” that firmly supports the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, The "Deep Blue State" will basically be like this.

However, in the key "swing states" where the election situation is stalemate, a large number of mailed ballots may slow down the announcement of the election results, especially the "grace period" of mailed voting in North Carolina as long as 9 days, which may lead to the result of the entire election in extreme cases. The announcement was greatly delayed.

  Affected or severe

  Analysts pointed out that the greater risk than the postponement of the election results is that the dispute between the two parties over mail voting may cause candidates to refuse to accept the election results.

Trump has stated many times that he only accepts the result of a "fair election" and cannot tolerate large-scale "election manipulation".

Once a candidate refuses to accept the results of the general election, the Federal Supreme Court may intervene in disputes and trigger judicial disputes.

If the result of the general election is delayed and uncertain, it will have a serious impact on American politics, economy, and society.

  According to the U.S. Constitution, the current presidential term will end on January 20, 2021.

The later the election result is determined, the less time is left for the alternation of the two governments.

And if the outcome of the general election continues to be uncertain, it may also trigger a long-term political deadlock.

  Political uncertainty and chaos will inevitably affect the economy and increase the risk of market turbulence.

Financial experts pointed out that if the outcome of the general election cannot be determined for a long time, it may lead to a "substantial decline" in the US stock market, and the magnitude of the decline will depend on the duration of the dispute.

If this dispute is brought to the Federal Supreme Court, then the process of deciding the winner will create more uncertainty and financial markets will also cause greater turmoil.

  At the same time, with the current resurgence of the epidemic in the United States and the increasing social polarization, if there is a long-term political deadlock, it is not conducive to epidemic prevention and control and social stability.