US presidential election: which states to watch?

Voters wait to vote in Celebration, Florida on October 25, 2020. Results in that state could tip the election.

REUTERS / Gregg Newton

Text by: Christophe Paget Follow

5 mins

In the United States, we are voting on Tuesday, November 3 to elect, among other things, the president.

Will Republican Donald Trump keep power for another four years, or will Democrat Joe Biden prove the polls right by taking the head of the world's leading power?

Here are the states that could be decisive in this election.

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The country may have 52 states - with, let us remember, an indirect suffrage system, where voters elect large voters who will later appoint the president - only a dozen states particularly attract attention on voting day. .

These are the “Swing States”, the “pivot states”, where the vote remains undecided until the end.

They are the ones who will decide the 46th American president.

In 2016, everyone voted for Trump, but what will happen this year?

• Florida

At the top of the most coveted states is Florida and its 29 electors.

The scores are always very tight: depending on the elections, this state passes under Democratic or Republican colors.

Donald Trump had won by barely a point in 2016.

The Cuban population in exiles and retirees traditionally vote conservative there, but young Hispanics vote Democrat.

And this time, retirees from this state, the most affected by the coronavirus, did not necessarily appreciate Donald Trump's management of the pandemic.

Experts believe that this year, if Republicans lose Florida, they also lose the presidential election.

• Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania (20 voters), this time it is Joe Biden who will have no room for error, because he was born in this state.

A traditionally democratic state which also switched to Donald Trump four years ago ... Suddenly, it was in Pennsylvania that Barack Obama held

in support of his former vice-president.

Barack Obama at a pro-Joe Biden rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on October 21, 2020. REUTERS / Kevin Lamarque

• Wisconsin and Michigan

Other traditionally democratic states, and for more than twenty years: Wisconsin (10 voters) and Michigan (16).

So Democrats that Hillary Clinton and her party decided not to campaign there.

Tactical error: they switched to Donald Trump's side in 2016.

This is why, like Donald Trump and his vice-president Mike Pence, the Democratic candidate and his running mate this time went to Winsconsin several times.

Democrats had already set up their national convention there - in Milwaukee - but in the end, it was largely virtual due to the coronavirus.

As for Michigan, Donald Trump, who hopes to keep his 2016 catch, has visited the Great Lakes region to tout the " 

 ", but locals are more interested in his management of the pandemic - Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has regularly confronted the President on this issue.

Gretchen Whitmer, who was recently in the news as a far-right group was indicted in early October for planning to kidnap her and try her for " 

 ".

• Arizona

Arizona (11 voters) is certainly a Republican stronghold, but its electorate is changing, with a growing Latino population.

Conservatives appreciated the president's efforts to limit immigration, but had little taste for his systematic denigration of a still very popular figure in Arizona: Republican Senator John McCain, who died in 2018. His widow has indicated that she supports Joe Biden.

• Ohio

Delighting Ohio from Donald Trump with his 18 major voters would be a major take for the Democratic candidate.

In 2016, Donald Trump largely defeated Hillary Clinton, by more than 8 points, despite all the time and money invested by the Democrats.

But this time, according to the polls, the outgoing president would be neck and neck with Joe Biden, who upon his arrival praised the work done during his vice-presidency to save the auto industry.

An argument to which this industrial state can be sensitive.

Aware of its importance, Donald Trump made several trips there during his campaign, especially since since 1964, the results of the presidential election in Ohio coincide with the national results ...

Donald Trump meeting in Circleville, Ohio, October 24, 2020. REUTERS / Tom Brenner

• Texas

Finally, Texas, with its 38 electorate voters, is not considered a “Swing State” - the Democrats haven't won it for decades.

But the Latino population is more and more important in the cities, like, more broadly,

, who traditionally vote democratic.

In 2016, in Texas, Donald Trump still won by nearly nine points over Hillary Clinton.

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• USA Elections 2020

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