On Tuesday, the United States will choose whether Republican Donald Trump gets another term as president of the world's most powerful nation, or whether Democrat Joe Biden can take over the baton in the country that has been hit hard by the ongoing pandemic.

It is very unusual for an American president not to be re-elected: in recent years, only George HW Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford have failed.

Now Donald Trump risks ending up in their gang.

According to the political site Fivethirtyeight, which weighs together many different kinds of opinion polls, the situation looks bleak for Donald Trump.

This is what Trump's chances look like according to the political site

Something worse than rolling a one on a six-sided dice.

This is how the site describes his chances of being re-elected.

In 40,000 simulations to see which of the candidates wins the election the most times, Joe Biden wins 89 out of 100 times.

But the fact that Joe Biden leads in both national and state-level polls does not mean that everything is lost to the Republicans.

- While Biden can afford to lose several states, Trump must win all the states where it is even, says election researcher Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.

What is the difference compared to the 2016 election when Donald Trump won over Hillary Clinton?

- Biden's management is larger and more stable than Clinton's four years ago.

"Can not show safe leads for any candidate"

In Pennsylvania, the state that according to Fivethirtyeight is most likely to decide the election, Joe Biden's lead is within the margin of error.

This means that Donald Trump is far from being calculated.

The question is also whether the opinion polls underestimated the support for Donald Trump.

- Last time, the polls nationally were actually among the most accurate since 1936. But in 2016, Trump was underestimated in polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Of course, none of the institutes want it to happen again, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson and continues:

- It is difficult to assess in advance how it will go now and it is important to remember that it is so even in many states that no opinion polls can show safe leads for any candidate.

Need to bring the congress

Regardless of who becomes president, it is important to have Congress with you.

The Congress, which consists of the Senate and the House of Representatives, writes the laws of the United States.

According to polls from Fivethirtyeight and Realclearpolitics, the Democrats seem to retain control of the lower house and take over the Senate.

Here's everything you need to know about how the United States is governed