There are just over three days to go before the U.S. presidential election, and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over Republican incumbent President Donald Trump remains clear, according to opinion polls.
According to the average of nationwide support measures published by RealClearPolitics, Biden would receive just over 51 percent of the vote, although Trump’s support has been on the rise in recent weeks.
However, according to a recent forecast from the prestigious forecasting site FiveThirtyEight, there are few signs that the competition will level off.
FiveThirtyEight calculates the probability of a presidential candidate winning.
According to the latest forecast on the site, Biden already has a 90 percent chance and Trump only has a 10 percent chance of winning.
In addition to support measures, the forecast also takes into account, for example, Trump's position as president and external factors, such as corona and economic developments before the election.
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Just exactly a month ago, FiveThirtyEight lowered Trump’s probability of winning to the order of 21 percent.
Since the last day of August, the same forecast has been steadily declining in terms of Trump’s probability of winning.
Also, it’s worth remembering that in 2016, FiveThirtyEight estimated in its latest prediction before the election that Democrats Hillary Clinton would hit Trump with a 71 percent probability, but it turned out otherwise.
Since then, FiveThirtyEight says it has developed metrics.
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