Benchmarking Musk’s Starlink Project, China Star Network has a geometric opportunity
China News Weekly reporter/Chen Weishan
Published in the 969th issue of China News Weekly on October 26, 2020
After four delays, on October 6, local time, SpaceX's "Falcon 9" rocket sent 60 Starlink satellites into space. This was the 65th consecutive successful launch of "Falcon 9".
The last failure dates back to September 2016. People have become accustomed to the successful launch of "Falcon 9", but this launch is a key node for SpaceX's Starlink plan.
Musk said on Twitter that once these satellites reach the target location, SpaceX will be able to launch a public beta version of Starlink in the northern United States and southern Canada.
At the beginning of 2015, SpaceX released the Starlink plan, which aims to provide Internet services for the world through the formation of a constellation of satellites gathered in the earth's low-earth orbit. At present, 12 batches of version 1.0 Starlink satellites have been launched, and this satellite Internet plan has cumulatively launched satellites The number has reached 775, SpaceX has become today's largest satellite operator.
At the end of April, Starlink satellites can be seen in Beijing in a "line-shaped" sky. At the moment when disputes between China and the United States in the field of science and technology are gradually rising, some people describe this as a "huge and invisible pressure" similar to 1957 What the Americans felt after learning that the Soviet Union successfully launched the first artificial satellite "Sputnik 1" was undoubtedly accompanied by national security concerns, and China's satellite Internet program is quietly starting.
The outlet of satellite internet
In 2014, the State Council issued a document to guide private capital to participate in the application and development of the satellite industry, but since then few private companies that have poured into the satellite industry have taken a fancy to the satellite Internet field, even if the "benchmark" of commercial aerospace, SpaceX released the Starlink plan in early 2015 At that time, a person in charge of a satellite company explained to China News Weekly that the technology of broadband constellations was complicated and the market demand was unclear.
However, in the first half of this year, satellite Internet stations became popular, which was largely driven by the will of the country.
In April, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission disclosed in detail the scope of the new infrastructure at a press conference. Both satellite Internet and 5G are representatives of communication network infrastructure.
Since then, the new infrastructure action plans launched by Shanghai, Fuzhou, Beijing and other places have also been incorporated into the satellite Internet. For example, in the action plan for 2020-2022, Shanghai even proposed "the initial formation of satellite Internet information service capabilities." Newsweek confirmed that Shanghai will be the headquarters of a satellite Internet operator that is being formed.
"After its establishment, it will be a vice-ministerial state-owned enterprise." According to a source, this state-owned enterprise is called the "Xingwang Group" in the industry, and the accompanying Chinese satellite Internet plan is called "Xingwang."
"The time for the establishment of Starnet Group has been repeatedly delayed, but the preparatory group has been working for more than half a year. The personnel of the preparatory group are in a secondment state, and members include China Electronics General Manager Zhang Dongchen." The source said, "As the preparatory group for the decision-making level The personnel from China Electronics, China Electronics Technology, and China Telecom are the main personnel, while the personnel from the aerospace system participate more as the working level."
“China’s satellite Internet plan has faced a debate over whether to focus on equipment vendors or operators during the advancement process. Starnet Group’s positioning is to operate satellite Internet rather than construct it. During the construction process, it will organize bidding. The network group is equivalent to Party A.” According to a person close to the preparatory group, if it is divided into three parts: construction, operation, terminal and application, the participants in the construction stage are mainly state-owned enterprises, and the operation is under the responsibility of Xingwang Group. Terminals and applications Will be put on the market to do it.
"The construction period of the star network will last three to five years. The general direction of the plan has been determined, but there may be some adjustments in the details." The aforementioned source said.
SpaceX and OneWeb’s satellite Internet plans promoted by the two companies have applied for the number of satellites to be launched in the scale of 10,000, and the international declaration of China’s satellite Internet plan has also been opened, and the number of satellites declared in the name of the Satellite Communications Branch of China Telecom Co., Ltd. More than 10,000 satellites. This is the third constellation plan in the world to reach 10,000 satellites.
Space enclosure movement
The number of satellites announced by each satellite Internet plan is not the same, but almost all have experienced a constant "expansion" process.
The Starlink project has climbed from the original 4,425 satellites to nearly 42,000 satellites today.
OneWeb initially planned to launch only 720 satellites, but after filing for bankruptcy in March this year, it still applied for additional launch of 48,000 satellites. Subsequently, the company received capital injection from the British government.
The number of satellites for the Amazon Kuiper Project approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) at the end of July was 3,236.
"SpaceX determined that the first batch of users will be in North America, so Starlink designed an orbit with an inclination of 53 degrees to ensure that when the number of satellites reaches 700 or 800, it will give priority to cover North America. First, it does not pursue global coverage. OneWeb initially hoped to use it. Up to 800 satellites to achieve a more balanced global coverage.” Nine-day MSI CEO Xie Tao told China News Weekly.
How many satellites are needed to achieve global coverage?
"The lower the orbital height, the more satellites are needed to cover the world, just like using a flashlight to illuminate the ground. The closer you are to the ground, the smaller the range of light coverage." Gao Qianfeng, partner and vice president of Galaxy Aerospace, told China "Newsweek", "Hundreds to thousands of satellites have basically achieved global coverage, but to achieve 100% seamless coverage, additional satellites must be added. In addition, if you want to make the communication experience in the coverage area better, you can also Launch another layer of satellites to achieve multi-mode services."
SpaceX vice president Mark Junkosa once revealed that Starlink will cover the United States after 12 launches, most of the world's population after 24 launches, and global coverage after 30 launches.
This is also considered to be the "smart" of SpaceX.
"SpaceX has taken a relatively stable path. This year, it will provide Internet services in North America first, and then the deployment may stop for a while. Unlike OneWeb, which aims at global coverage from the beginning, it continues to invest money, but it will not operate until the constellation is built. Income." Yang Yiqiang, Chairman and President of Zhongke Aerospace, told China News Weekly that Starlink does not need more than 40,000 satellites to achieve global coverage. "Musk is the first to create momentum and occupy frequency and orbit resources. This is a bit like the real estate industry, no matter how well planned it is, it’s useless if the land is not photographed."
The space between three to four hundred kilometers to 1,200 kilometers from the earth is considered to be a low orbit range, which is also the area where the main satellite Internet constellations are located.
"The delay of low-orbit satellites is shorter. The delay of star-link is 20 milliseconds, while the delay of high-orbit satellites is mostly several hundred milliseconds. It is also smaller, which is convenient for expanding the user base." Xie Tao told reporters that the high-orbit resources have been divided up, and SpaceX, as a new satellite operator, must open up new incremental space.
A space enclosure movement is unfolding, and SpaceX's rapid occupation of low-orbit frequencies and orbital resources is also considered to be the key to driving China's satellite Internet plan to speed up.
"Starlink plans to deploy more than 4,500 satellites at an orbital altitude of 550 kilometers. If the accuracy of satellite orbit determination is relatively high, the distance between each two layers of satellites will be shortened. For example, one layer can be placed every 10 kilometers, purely from space. From a perspective, there are many satellites that can be accommodated, but if we combine the limitations of technology and frequency and other factors, we estimate that the number of satellites that can be accommodated in low orbit is about 100,000." Xie Tao told reporters.
"The principle of the use of the orbit is whoever has the first to occupy it. If a later satellite collides with the previous satellite, he must be fully responsible." Some commercial aerospace veteran said that compared to orbital resources, frequency may be more scarce. Resources, "International Telecommunication Union stipulates to apply in the name of a company, and whoever applies first is the one who uses it first. In the ranking of applications for satellite Internet available frequencies, China ranks outside the 60th place."
"In fact, the submission is late, and the frequency is first-come-first-served. SpaceX and OneWeb may have submitted applications a few years ago." A person in charge of a satellite company told reporters that in China, the operating company needs to report satellite data to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. After approval, it will be submitted to the ITU queue through official channels.
"Previously, some Chinese companies did not have the opportunity to line up at the ITU, because the domestic rule is that companies must coordinate with each other and not interfere with each other. As a result, internal friction is serious and everyone disagrees."
"It is hoped that the national policy level will be appropriately relaxed, more open to support the participation of private enterprises, to give full play to the advantages of systems and mechanisms, and participate in international resource competition," Gao Qianfeng told reporters. Military-related projects have promoted the rapid development of these companies.
"Frequency orbit resources must be grabbed." Xie Tao believes that the future competition for low-orbit frequency orbit resources is a game between big countries. "Before SpaceX satellites may collide with satellites of other countries. SpaceX should avoid it according to its priority. But just not letting it have broken the previous rules."
Does China really need satellite internet?
Behind the seizure of frequency orbit resources are the commercial benefits that satellite Internet may bring.
According to statistics from the Satellite Industry Association (SIA), the rocket launch business accounted for only about 1.3% of the entire aerospace economy in 2019, with an output value of about 4.9 billion U.S. dollars. Even if SpaceX dominates the global launch business, the revenue it can bring is no more in this way.
"Through the Starlink project, Musk is actually creating demand for himself. In fact, many satellite operators have not chosen SpaceX rockets, and the US military and NASA may only issue two or three orders to SpaceX each year." Yang Yiqiang told reporters. .
Musk once estimated that Starlink could bring $30 billion in revenue to SpaceX each year, which is ten times the rocket launch business.
Currently, SpaceX is fighting for the U.S. Rural Digital Development Opportunity Fund. The fund plans to allocate US$20.4 billion within ten years to provide network services to 14.5 million people in the United States. Musk has repeatedly stated that Starlink’s target customers are different from traditional telecom operators and will not A threat to them.
"American Internet giants, such as Google and Facebook, have encountered bottlenecks in the number of users in recent years. Therefore, they have a real need to expand the coverage of the Internet. They have also experimented with using hot air balloons and airplanes as base stations to provide Internet services. Internet solutions are more reliable." Mi Lei, founding partner of China Science and Technology Star, told China News Weekly.
Just after Starlink’s plan was announced at the beginning of 2015, Google and Fidelity Investments "directed" a $1 billion investment in Starlink.
"China Mobile's network coverage rate is much higher than that of the United States, and it has even achieved "village connection", unlike some of the sparsely populated Midwestern regions of the United States that are not covered by terrestrial networks." Mi Lei believes that the United States has a demand for satellite Internet. More urgently than China, "Because the cost of ground base stations in densely populated areas is much lower than that of satellite Internet, the area covered by ground base stations generally does not require satellite Internet. The Iridium plan was defeated by 2G base stations. In the final analysis, it is because of the ground. The base station costs are lower."
Xie Tao believes that in some rural areas in central and western China, it may be more cost-effective to use satellites to provide network services. “For example, if a village wants to achieve signal coverage, after the construction of iron towers and base stations, the photoelectric fee may cost more than 100,000 yuan a year. However, the daily demand for the network is not that great. In this case, it may be more cost-effective to use satellites."
"The areas that cannot be effectively served by the ground network are definitely a rigid need that satellite Internet should first address, but in the future it will definitely be integrated with the ground network and complement each other in different scenarios." Gao Qianfeng envisions a scenario: the density of 5G base stations It is about 10 times that of 4G base stations, and its large-scale construction coverage will face huge challenges. In the future, there may be both 5G base stations and satellite Internet terminals on the same tower. The problem of data return is solved through satellite networks. The introduction of satellite Internet saves operators. Part of the cost of laying ground fiber.
"As long as it can provide a good network experience and the cost is low enough, satellite Internet can still be integrated in densely populated cities."
So, what level of speed can the satellite Internet reach?
In SpaceX's previous tests, the downlink speed can reach about 100 megabits per second.
"In fact, Starlink can also achieve faster communication rates. In the integration test of satellite Internet and terrestrial 5G networks conducted by Galaxy Aerospace and operators, the measured download rate of mobile phones can reach 382 megabits per second. In the recent rate test, the single The terminal communication rate is up to 1.5G per second.” Gao Qianfeng said.
Since the beginning of this year, SpaceX has successively released Starlink's user terminals and routers. While its commercial applications are advancing, Starlink has quickly become deeply tied to the US military.
In May of this year, SpaceX and the US Army signed an agreement under which the former will use Starlink to transmit data between various military networks in three years.
As early as 2018, with only two test satellites, Starlink’s signal transmission rate to a military transport aircraft reached 610 megabits per second, enough to download a movie in one minute.
SpaceX has received multiple orders from the US military in the rocket launch market, and its first investment beyond Musk's personal capital injection came from the US Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
"By means of'combining the military with the people', Starlink can meet the military needs of the United States." Yang Yiqiang believes that satellite Internet is more than simply providing network services for areas that cannot be covered by ground networks. There are many military and national security behind it. "Similarly, for China, network security has always been a hanging sword. After all, the root servers are all overseas, and the satellite Internet is equivalent to rebuilding a new network system."
Xie Tao also believes that when there are indeed differences in the commercial needs of China and the United States, national strategies and military needs do exist.
"Satellite Internet is more like a space-based iron tower. It can not only provide broadband services. If you mount a camera on it, you can provide remote sensing services. If you add a navigation-enhanced payload, you can provide services for autonomous driving. It produces many applications, more like a space-based information highway."
Opportunities for private enterprises
After satellite Internet was included in the new infrastructure, the Industrial Bank research team had estimated that the domestic investment in this field this year would reach 11.7 billion yuan, which will undoubtedly bring stimulus to the domestic commercial aerospace market.
"After the state has determined the satellite Internet as an investment direction, just like the construction of 5G, trillions of investment will be a huge boost to the entire industrial chain." Mi Lei said.
SpaceX did not disclose the amount of investment in the Starlink program, but Musk said on Twitter at the end of September that after obtaining stable and predictable income, Starlink assets will be listed.
This is the second time in this year that SpaceX management clearly stated that it would divest Starlink assets and list it.
"This part of Starlink's assets will definitely be listed, and the purpose is to broaden financing channels." Yang Yiqiang believes that one of the conditions for the formation of a satellite Internet constellation is super and continuous financing capabilities.
According to the company's data, in the first half of this year, 1,128 companies related to satellite Internet were newly registered, a year-on-year increase of 158%.
"China may not have a single commercial company that can invest tens of billions of yuan to build a satellite Internet constellation. The total amount of financing of all domestic commercial satellite companies may not be as good as SpaceX's one-time financing." Xie Tao said that SpaceX will be 8 The monthly financing amount is as high as 2 billion US dollars.
"Under this background, supporting the national satellite Internet plan is a relatively certain market for commercial satellite companies."
"The concept of satellite Internet will'detonate' commercial aerospace. Without this concept, other commercial satellite markets, such as remote sensing and navigation enhancement, will have less demand for launch, and the rockets within the system can fully satisfy them." Yang Yiqiang said.
An insider told China News Weekly that during the advancement of China's satellite Internet plan, if the cost of rockets for private companies is cheaper than the rockets in the existing system, the state will definitely purchase them.
"Playing the catfish effect of private enterprises can reduce the cost of satellite Internet construction."
Xie Tao hopes that in the future, the cost per bit of information transmitted by satellite Internet can be reduced to a level equivalent to that of 4G networks. "At present, Starlink has basically reached the cost per satellite announced by Musk, which is less than US$500,000, plus 1 million. The launch cost of about US dollars adds up to a cost of about 1.5 million US dollars per satellite.” In contrast, the price of a single satellite of OneWeb is 1 million US dollars.
The story of SpaceX using reusable rockets to reduce launch costs is well known. In fact, SpaceX has also significantly reduced satellite costs.
According to industry insiders, the communication satellites currently used in Starlink's plan are mostly 260 kilograms, and the domestic manufacturing cost of equivalent satellites is RMB 30 to 40 million.
"There is little information on how SpaceX controls the cost of satellites. We speculate that they may have introduced some Tesla's production capacity and used some automotive-grade and commercial-grade components to replace aerospace-grade components. The cost of the two types of components may be A difference of an order of magnitude, ten times or dozens of times is possible." Xie Tao said.
This cost reduction idea can be seen when SpaceX made the rocket. When Musk learned that the air conditioning system used for the cooling in the rocket fairing would cost 3 million to 4 million US dollars, he decided to replace it with 6 commercial air conditioning units. .
"We even guess that Starlink's satellites will only do simple tests after production. If strict tests are done according to domestic standards, it will be difficult to complete in one month, and the cost of personnel and time is very high." Xie Tao said .
Gao Qianfeng also speculated that Tesla’s production capacity has empowered SpaceX’s satellite production. “Using an industrialized mass production model to make satellites, it is possible to reduce costs from the root cause. If 60 satellites are made, each is different. , The cost cannot be lowered, and mass production must be realized like a car."
"To achieve mass production, there are some key factors to be resolved. The first is standardization. Only after standards are available can it be suitable for production line production; the second is a certain degree of automation, and then there is a relatively strong supply chain system support." Gao Qianfeng Said that the cost of a satellite in the future can be reduced to one-tenth of the current one, "one-tenth is a number we have determined, and it can even reach one-tenths."
At present, SpaceX is producing satellites at a rate of two to three satellites per day and about 60 satellites a month. By the end of this year, the cumulative number of satellites launched will exceed 1,000.
"The later the low-orbit satellite Internet constellation plan starts, the more it suffers." A senior aerospace person said with emotion.
China News Weekly, Issue 39, 2020
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