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October 26, 2020 "The set of measures adopted by the government are a step forward, but in my opinion not sufficient to deal with the circulation of the virus at this time".

Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Minister of Health, says so.

The opportunity is given by an interview broadcast on La7 during which the consultant of the ministry expresses strong concern about the progress of the epidemic in Italy and even goes so far as to indicate some possible solutions.



"The measures must be taken in proportion to the circulation of the virus, which is rampant in some areas of the country at the moment, is uncontrolled: when we have a contagion index of 2.5 it means that the transmission of the virus is exponential and therefore there is a need for more aggressive measures on all sides ".



"A study published in Lancet last week by colleagues from the University of Edinburgh - says Ricciardi - has studied the experiences of 131 countries in the past months and says that when the circulation of the virus is the size it has, for example, in this currently in Italy, France and Spain, the only thing you need to slow down this contagion index is a lockdown.Of course you don't have to do it generalized, but where the contagion index is high, because this slows down by 24%; if you combine it with a targeted closure of schools you increase this dimension by 15% and if you make a compulsory smart working for both the public and the private sector, you increase again by 13%, so you arrive at a reduction of 50-55%. public transport accounts for a further 7% and these effects are seen after 8 days ".



"If we adopted all these measures at this time, and we should have done so two weeks ago, we would be able in Milan, Naples, Rome and in some areas of Piedmont and Liguria, to halve this contagion index. Index 2.5 means that each person infects another two and a half and going on like this there is a doubling of cases every two or three days, which is already unsustainable for the health services of those areas of the country, let alone in a week or between ten days if this index is not slowed down ".