Fredrik Svenningsson: The expectation that Russia will take revenge

Today, the head of the Russian security service FSB officially announced that it was a bomb that exploded on board the plane from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg.

The reactions are both outrage and that it was an expected message.

Ever since Russian authorities stopped continued holiday trips to Sharm el-Sheikh, it has been felt that they knew more than they said and there were probably not many who were really surprised by the news today.

At the same time, the emotions are upset: "So awful, so awful."

Reason to take it seriously

As the information comes from the FSB, the Russian security service, and not from a fully published investigation, it is difficult to evaluate them.

But since they are in line with what, among other things, British intelligence information has previously spoken for, there is great reason to take them seriously.

Now there is an expectation to strike back.

The question is just how and with whom.

Immediately after the terrorist attacks in Paris, both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev went out and said that a united fight against terrorism was needed.

They suggested that the countries of the West should join Russia in this fight, that the West should learn from its mistakes in supporting the wrong groups in Syria and unite with Russia in the fight against terrorism.

Diplomatic offensive

Already after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Moscow at the end of October, it has been possible to see a Russian diplomatic offensive regarding Syria's future.

The tone after this weekend's meeting in Vienna, where a number of world leaders discussed an action plan for Syria, was also positive.

At the same time, there are deep-seated unresolved conflicts between the West and Russia that must either be resolved or at least temporarily forgotten in order for there to be any real joint effort against IS.

This applies not only to Bashar al-Assad's future role in Syria, but perhaps above all to the war in Ukraine and the Russian annexation of Crimea.

A conflict that has led to far-reaching economic sanctions and embargoes between Russia and the West.

A joint effort with the West and Russia could here be interpreted as an international recognition of Russian foreign policy.

Great fear of terrorism

In Russia, there is also a fear that an expanded operation in the Middle East will stun Russians at home.

There is a great fear of Islamist terrorism.

Terrorist attacks take place regularly, primarily in the southern parts of the country in the sub-republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya.

But also in other parts of the country.

Recently, the number of attacks in the country has decreased.

One explanation for this is that 2,400 Russian citizens, according to official figures, have left the country to fight for IS in Iraq and Syria.

The anxiety is about what they are capable of if they return home.

With regard to domestic Islamist terrorism, the authorities have taken a hard line.

Too harsh according to some human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch.

The fight against terrorism in Russia has affected innocent people and led to more people being radicalized, critics say.

Now that expectations are set for a hard blow back, alone or together with countries in the West, the question also remains as to how it will go.

Even before today's announcement, there was great support for the bombings in Syria, but at the same time there is great skepticism about an increased effort with a ground offensive.

More air strikes

Putin's message is that there will be more air strikes, but he also says that special forces will find the culprits wherever they are on earth.

Despite the demands for revenge, it is probably still something that makes many people think of the war in Afghanistan where Soviet soldiers fought for ten years and when many families had their dead relatives sent home in zinc chests.

While we wait to know exactly what Vladimir Putin has in mind, we can count on increased security within the country and a tougher grip on suspected terrorists in Russia.

Both guilty and innocent.