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On the eve of the 2016 presidential elections, all pollsters announced the victory of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. The polls overturned the forecasts in a sensational way. But there were analysts who, going against the tide, predicted the victory of the New York tycoon. Four years later, following their statistical models, political scientists confirm the prediction: although by the average of the polls Joe Biden currently has 10.1 points ahead of Trump, according to some of them the president will win a second term in the White House.
And, for some, it will also do it in an overwhelming way. Helmut Norpoth, professor of political science at Stony Brook University: in 2016 his statistical model indicated the 87% chance of a Trump victory. This year, according to his data, the percentage has risen to 91. The president would win 362 electoral votes against Joe Biden's 176. Norpoth guessed the result in five out of six elections. "Trump will win clearly, his will be an avalanche. You will see, even four years ago they said I would be wrong."
Alan Abramowitz, professor of political science at
Emory University: in 2016, based on domestic product growth, order,
popularity index and number of presidency years held by Democrats and
Republicans, the professor predicted Trump's victory with 51 per one hundred
votes. A few weeks ago Abramowitz confirmed the prediction for the
next elections: "The president has a 91 percent chance of winning.
The polls give different indications only because Trumpian supporters are
less likely than Democrats to be interviewed in the polls. In the secret
of the ballot box, their vote will go to Trump ". Bela Stantic, director of Big Data
and Smart Analytics at Griffith University: the professor predicted
both Brexit victory in the UK referendum and
Trump
victory
in
2016
. "Our statistics - he explained to the Newshub site - show that the
president is doing very well and is in command. Florida is
considered by all to be uncertain, but for me Trump has a slight advantage. And the
same goes for Minnesota and Pennsylvania. In Texas, on the other hand, the president will
win easily ". Matthew Lampert, director of the Socionomics Institute research group:" The
stock market has historically been a valid tool for predicting who will
win elections. Almost always, when a president has course for
re-election and the stock market has done well in the previous three years, then
won ". And that's what has happened since 2017. According to the research group's analysis,
Trump has an 87 percent chance of staying in the White House.