Russia has proposed an extension of the New Start Agreement by one year.
They state that they are ready to enter into a political agreement with the United States to freeze both sides' existing nuclear arsenals, according to the statement on Tuesday.
The New START agreement expires in February 2021 and regulates the countries' strategic nuclear arsenals.
Shortly after the Russian statement, the United States replied that it was prepared to meet immediately to conclude a "verifiable agreement".
That is precisely the crucial question, according to Dr Petr Topychkanov at Stockholm's International Peace Research Institute, Sipri.
- It is still unclear whether it is possible for both sides to agree.
The situation is unpredictable, he says.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic?
- I am cautious, neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
Russian nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable submarine K-266 Orel at the Kronstadt naval base in the Baltic Sea in connection with the naval parade.
Photo: Kremlin via AP 26 July 2020
Control mechanisms
Topychkanov estimates that the United States wants to create a separately verifiable agreement that "freezes" the number of nuclear weapons to today's level.
This means that the countries make a mutual commitment to be able to inspect and control each other's nuclear weapons so that the agreement is complied with.
But Russia currently has no interest in such a separate agreement, but is prepared to temporarily freeze the number of robots by one year, pending an extension of the New Start Agreement, which could be in place for many years.
- They rather want a political commitment without any form of verification.
Presidential election
Topychkanov states that the question is affected by who will be the next president of the United States.
Right now, nuclear weapons control is uncertain from 2021.
- Joe Biden has already indicated that he is interested in extending New Start.
He has shown his support for the control of nuclear weapons.
In addition, the world's third largest nuclear power, China, plays a key role.
The United States wants to include China in a new agreement.
- China is clear that it supports a bilateral extension of the agreement between the United States and Russia.
Three US nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the Baltic Sea.
Photo: US Air Force October 23, 2019
Cracked agreements
In recent years, several important nuclear agreements between the United States and Russia have been terminated.
In the late summer of 2019, both countries submitted the INF agreement that regulates ground-based medium-range robots.
And in the spring of 2020, the United States announced that it was leaving Open Skies - an agreement that allows Russia, the United States and some 30 other countries to monitor each other by air, to control the countries' armor and thereby increase relaxation.