The US President's special envoy for arms control Marshall Billingsley announced NATO countries' support for the US position on the Russian and Chinese "nuclear programs".

“Together with NATO allies, we continue close consultations on the nuclear programs of Russia and China.

We shared additional information about the thousands of medium-range missiles that have been deployed by both countries capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

We express our gratitude to the Allies for supporting the American approach, ”he wrote on Twitter.

Continuing our close consultation with @NATO allies on both the Russian and Chinese nuclear programs.

Shared additional information on the thousands of medium-range, nuclear-capable missiles that both countries have deployed.

Appreciate allied support for the US approach.

https://t.co/EcXtXy76hQ

- Ambassador Marshall S. Billingslea (@USArmsControl) October 20, 2020

According to the US mission to NATO, Billingsley briefed NATO allies "on the state of arms control negotiations with Russia, including Moscow's recent desire to make progress in the negotiations on the extension of START III."

"The United States is ready to hold a meeting and approve the final version of the agreement, the fulfillment of which is amenable to control," the office said.

Earlier today, @USArmsControl briefed @NATO Allies on the status of #armscontrol negotiations with 🇷🇺 #Russia, including Moscow's recent willingness to make progress on #NewSTART extension talks.

The 🇺🇸 US stands ready to meet and finalize a verifiable agreement.

https://t.co/tN8XbQ7KxJ

- US Mission to NATO (@USNATO) October 20, 2020

Situation around START

Recall that in mid-October, the United States announced its readiness to prolong the treaty on the limitation of strategic offensive arms with Russia, subject to a temporary freeze of the size of the nuclear arsenals of the two countries.

"The United States has proposed extending START III by one year, provided that Russia and the United States maintain the cap on the number of nuclear warheads during this period," said Robert O'Brien, the US President's National Security Assistant.

(1/3) “The United States proposed an extension of New START for one year, in exchange for Russia and the United States capping all nuclear warheads during that period.

- NSC (@WHNSC) October 16, 2020

Marshall Billingsley made a similar statement earlier. 

On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council, proposed extending START III for 12 months "without any conditions."

“I have a proposal, namely, to extend the current agreement without any conditions for at least a year in order to be able to conduct meaningful negotiations on all parameters of the problems that are regulated by such agreements,” Putin said.

The United States said that the initiative of the Russian leader "will lead nowhere."

"Today's proposal by President Putin to extend START III without freezing the number of warheads will lead nowhere," said the US Presidential Assistant for National Security.

  • The White house

  • © Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images / AFP

At the same time, on October 20, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that "Russia proposes to extend the START treaty for one year and is ready, together with the United States, to take on a political commitment to" freeze "the number of nuclear warheads held by the parties for this period."

“This position of ours can be implemented strictly and exclusively on the understanding that the“ freezing ”of warheads will not be accompanied by any additional demands from the United States.

If this approach suits Washington, then the time gained as a result of the START extension can be used to conduct comprehensive bilateral negotiations on the future control over nuclear missile arms with the obligatory consideration of all factors affecting strategic stability, ”the ministry said in a statement.

As noted in the Foreign Ministry, they did not receive an official response from Washington to the note dated October 16 with Vladimir Putin's proposal to extend the treaty.

Commenting on the proposal of the Russian Foreign Ministry, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington welcomes Moscow's agreement to "freeze" all its nuclear arsenals. "

“But we should facilitate the early start of interaction between the negotiators representing the United States and Russia in order to continue the process of approving the final version of the treaty, the implementation of the terms of which can be controlled,” Pompeo said.

Role of NATO

Andrei Sidorov, head of the Department of International Organizations and World Political Processes at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, believes that the American side is now "actively engaging its bloc allies in the negotiation process on START."

According to him, the White House "hopes that the states of the alliance will contribute to the implementation of his plans."

“For the United States in this context, it is important to demonstrate the support of its allies in the alliance, emphasizing that NATO will play its role in the arms control negotiations.

Washington expects that the official support of the collective West will somehow affect Russia's position on the extension of START III, "the analyst said in a conversation with RT.

A similar position is shared by Nikita Danyuk, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the RUDN University.

He also believes that NATO's support in the event that START III is not extended by the American side "will serve as a kind of shield" for the United States.

  • US Trident II D5 ballistic missile launch

  • Reuters

  • © US Navy

“It is obvious that the United States is aimed at destroying the existing structure of strategic stability and global security.

And although they do not yet specifically designate a position on START, it is clear that sooner or later they will withdraw from it.

For the same reason, they withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty (DON), the INF Treaty and earlier - from the ABM Treaty.

And in these conditions, the support of the alliance will be designed to protect them from accusations from other countries in this collapse.

After all, Washington will always be able to say that it did not make a decision alone, ”the analyst said in an interview with RT.

Danyuk also stressed that in this context, it is beneficial for the United States "to present its position as the position of all countries of the alliance."

“You shouldn't be surprised if the American administration will pass off further steps within the framework of the START Treaty extension as a consolidated position of the North Atlantic Alliance,” the expert noted.

Chinese factor

It is worth noting that the Russian side has repeatedly declared its readiness to extend START III, but the United States is hesitating to make a final decision.

At the same time, Washington believes that it is necessary to create a new agreement designed to replace START.

In addition, the American authorities insist on China's joining such a document.

However, the PRC has repeatedly noted that it will not participate in these initiatives.

In particular, Beijing made a similar statement in mid-October.

“Given the enormous difference between China's nuclear arsenal and the capabilities of the United States and Russia, expecting China to join any trilateral arms control talks is unfair, unreasonable and senseless.

China will never enter into such kind of negotiations and will not allow itself to be coerced or blackmailed, ”said Geng Shuang, Deputy Representative of the People's Republic of China to the UN, at a meeting of the First Committee of the UN General Assembly dealing with disarmament and international security issues.

At the same time, Geng Shuang noted that the PRC does not refuse to participate in the global disarmament process.

As Andrei Sidorov noted, "it is extremely important for the United States to involve China in the arms control negotiations, since Washington calls this country its main adversary."

“The United States believes that for them, and especially for the American Navy, the weapons deployed on the Chinese continental shelf and on the bulk islands pose a great threat.

Washington fears that its dominance in the Asia-Pacific region will soon come to an end, as China is building up its missile weapons, has the financial resources and the appropriate technology for this.

For this reason, the American side goes to all sorts of tricks, just to force the Russian Federation to somehow influence the position of the Chinese leadership.

But Moscow has already stated that it respects Beijing's strategy, ”the expert said.

According to Sidorov, the United States is counting on its allies in the bloc to help them "in finding ways to stop the modernization and deployment of China's combat capabilities."

At the same time, Washington realizes that it will hardly succeed in carrying out its initiative to involve China in the negotiations, but uses it as an excuse not to extend START III for five years, Nikita Danyuk believes.

  • NATO symbols

  • © Francois Lenoir / Reuters

“Considering that the condition for attracting the PRC is not feasible a priori, the United States is trying to shift the responsibility for withdrawing from the START Treaty onto its Russian partners.

That is, Washington says in fact that since the Russian Federation is not able to find the tools thanks to which it is possible to bring the Chinese to the negotiating table, the United States can withdraw from the agreement and at the same time not bear responsibility for it.

Then they will say that Washington does not violate the architecture of global security and strategic stability, ”the expert said.

At the same time, Sidorov noted that "Moscow went to meet Washington halfway by proposing to freeze the number of nuclear warheads available to the parties for a year in order to enable further negotiations."

According to the analyst, the American side can agree to such conditions, given that presidential elections will take place in the United States on November 3.

"For the Trump administration, this is an opportunity to show that some progress has been made in the negotiations, and to prevent Democrats from speculating on this topic," he said.

However, after the elections, the United States "can continue to rock this treaty, since the American nuclear triad and the nuclear potential of the United States in general need serious modernization," Sidorov believes.

“Washington can deliberately put forward new demands that Russia will not be ready to accept.

And then the agreement may collapse, ”the expert concluded.