Will Egypt be dragged into the Saudi and UAE campaign to boycott Turkey's goods?

With the escalation of the Saudi-Emirati campaign to demand a boycott of Turkish goods, questions have emerged about the position of Egypt, which follows the positions of the two countries most of the time, as well as being a member with them - in addition to Bahrain - in a quadripartite alliance targeting the blockade of the State of Qatar.

In this context, Egyptian merchants said that they face - even before the boycott campaign - administrative harassment when importing from Turkey, which prompted Egyptians to question Cairo's involvement in this campaign under pressure from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, or does the Egyptian authorities have other accounts?

Despite previous calls to boycott Turkey economically, the recent escalation came after a tweet by the head of the Saudi Council of Chambers of Commerce Ajlan Al-Ajlan, calling on businessmen and citizens to boycott Turkish products, goods and services in all their forms.

Economists and political analysts say that the campaign is being launched by official hands, with the aim of inflicting commercial and financial damage to Turkish companies and factories, whose products have been trusted by consumers in the Arab region during the past years.

Turkey's exports to Arab countries exceeded the barrier of $ 30 billion in 2019, out of $ 180.5 billion, which is the total volume of Turkish exports, according to statements by Turkish Trade Minister Rohsar Bakjan, at the beginning of this year.

Booming business despite political tension

It was noticeable that the Egyptian media interacted with the news of the Saudi-Emirati boycott campaigns, but it did not engage as extensively as usual, as official television and pro-government news websites reported the news during the past few days, while the exception came from the presenter Amr Adib, who works. On the Saudi-owned MBC Egypt channel, where he was one of the strongest advocates of boycotting Turkey economically, and he devoted much time from his program to this campaign.

As for the popular level, there is no impact of the Saudi-Emirati calls on the ground. On the contrary, social media platforms witnessed a counter-campaign to boycott Turkish goods, and Egyptian activists interacted with it under the hashtag "# Popular Campaign to Support Turkey."

The interesting thing in the Egyptian-Turkish relations is that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is relatively large, and it was not affected in the most difficult circumstances, if not increased steadily, contrary to the declining and tense political trend.

Egypt is ranked third in the list of the largest Arab importers from Turkey after Iraq and the UAE, with about $ 3.3 billion in 2019, while Turkey is one of the most important 5 countries that receive Egyptian exports, with a value close to two billion dollars annually.

In general, the value of trade exchange between Egypt and Turkey during the first 10 months of last year increased by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2018, reaching about $ 4.499 billion, noting that it exceeded the barrier of $ 5 billion in the whole year.

Turkish home appliances in an Egyptian store (Al-Jazeera)

Free Trade Agreement

Some explain the increase in the volume of trade exchange - despite the tense political relations - by Egypt's association with Turkey with the free trade agreement signed in December 2005, which entered into force in March 2007, and since that time the trade and investment movement between the two countries has flourished.

Despite this increase, recent times - before the boycott campaign - witnessed Turkish and Egyptian investors and traders complaining of some restrictions and obstruction, but this was unofficially.

Sources at the Turkish Embassy in Cairo revealed to Al-Jazeera Net correspondent that the restrictions included delaying commercial, customs and administrative transactions, which inconvenienced Turkish and Egyptian traders and investors alike.

Al-Jazeera Net correspondent also conveyed the complaint of Egyptian merchants regarding the import of Turkish goods to Egypt, as there is a great emphasis on merchants and investors, especially small traders who face real losses as a result of refusing or returning the goods or requesting their execution, claiming that they do not meet the specifications.

Egypt is out of tune

In this context, Hossam El-Shazly, the political and economic advisor, believes that Egypt will not be dragged into this economic trap, otherwise the boycotting countries must pay the price for it, adding, “I doubt that their current economic capabilities will allow this, and therefore it may be difficult to pressure any other country to participate in this. The campaign, given the long-term losses that boycott the Turkish product will cost, on the political and commercial levels.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, the opposition economic advisor stressed that the strong and productive Turkish economic structure in exchange for the propaganda consumer structure in the UAE and Saudi Arabia is no secret, stressing at the same time that the Turkish product is an essential component in the Egyptian market, and is governed by many complex agreements and partnerships.

Al-Shazli stressed that the resort of the UAE and Saudi Arabia to the artificial popular dimension is to avoid falling into the crisis of breaching international commercial obligations and treaties, and intercontinental company contracts, indicating that the official figures will expose the boycott’s failure quickly and lose its political goal.

Economic interests are greater

On his part;

Egyptian political analyst Ezzat El-Nimr said, "Egypt is in the coup and military version. Performance trends cannot be analyzed in it as a single unit at the level of the political system or even as a state. This applies to calls for boycotting Turkish products that have spread and started in the Gulf space," indicating that "The gap is wide between the Egyptian-Turkish political and economic tracks."

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Nimr adds that "at the popular level there is confidence and credibility in the Turkish product, and this sector also will not be affected by the political direction of the state, nor will it participate, and it will not bear with it those political arguments that the simple citizen does not give any consideration, especially when it comes to a product Consumer, first concerned with quality and price. "

He concluded by saying, "But the most important reason for the lack of official and governmental announcement in Saudi Arabia or the Emirates of the boycott decision remains that it does not comply with the laws of the World Trade Organization and international trade law, and these countries do not want to bear the repercussions of an official or legal confrontation with Turkey or the Trade Organization." .

The other side of the boycott

Turkish businessman and economist Yusef Kateboglu did not rule out the pressure in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on Egypt to participate in the boycott, saying, "There is undoubtedly Gulf pressure on Egypt - not only today - to generalize the boycott of Turkish products and weaken the Turkish economy."

But the Turkish economist warned about what he called an adventure, stressing that it would be an adventure with no consequences, because the intra-trade between Egypt and Turkey exceeds the official figures, and there are also billions of dollars in Turkish investments in Egypt, and Egypt is in a position that does not allow it to be dragged behind such calls, especially Trade relations surpassed the worst in the past.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, he indicated that the other side of the boycott is that it will negatively affect the boycotting countries that have hidden behind the popular calls, while it is a government campaign and officially orchestrated by exerting pressure on their investors and traders, but he expected that it will not have a long-term impact.