Analysts: Trump's trade wars have exacerbated the US deficit and damaged the global system

Over the past four years, US President Donald Trump has fought trade wars on several fronts, especially with China, with the aim of reducing the US trade deficit, but his policies have achieved only modest gains, and have long-term damage to the pluralistic economy, according to analysts.

The issue of the United States' exposure to exploitation by its trading partners was one of the main issues that focused on the Trump campaign in 2016, and the Republican candidate committed to transforming global trade arrangements and reducing the trade deficit of his country, which is the largest global economic power.

Indeed, the US President brought about a transformation in the World Trade Organization, but the trade deficit of the United States increased during his tenure, and analysts indicate that he did not achieve much of what he promised in this regard.

And while the trade deficit between the United States and China, which is Trump's primary goal, has already narrowed, imports from Canada and Mexico have risen dramatically, deepening the overall deficit.

Analysts say that in addition to failing to reduce the US trade deficit, Trump has dealt a prolonged blow to the multilateral economic system that underpins global trade.

Few gains

Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, points out that Trump's trade policies have achieved few tangible gains for the US economy, but in turn have undermined the multilateral trading system, which in turn caused an imbalance in long-term alliances with US trading partners. And the latest state of blurring.

Prasad says that the statements of the current US administration and its arbitrary policy decisions have led to a perception of the United States as a trading partner that cannot be relied upon or trusted.

The matter prompted countries from the Pacific region and others to bypass the United States and conclude bilateral or multilateral trade agreements, after Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

In the same context, Edward Alden, a journalist and writer specializing in US trade policy from the Council on Foreign Relations for Research, says that the US president's policy was deeply harmful to Europe and the World Trade Organization, which will be difficult to fix, as he put it.

As for the professor of economics at the University of Paris - Dauphin Gianluca Orifici - he in turn points out that the lifting of the tariffs imposed by the United States on many products protected American manufacturers, but he explains that these fees at the same time raised production costs for American industries, and showed the extent of dependence To Chinese suppliers.

Analysts say Trump's policies have weakened WTO (Getty Images)

Trade Organization,

Eswar Prasad explains, that Trump's policies have weakened the multilateral trading system represented by the World Trade Organization, which the United States played a major role in establishing.

And weakening the organization would make it difficult to achieve much in terms of cooperation to support a sustainable recovery of the global economy from the Coronavirus crisis, according to Prasad.

In addition, Trump's refusal to appoint new judges has paralyzed the WTO dispute resolution system, striking a blow to the multi-polar global trade system arbitration apparatus.

In the context, Sebastian Jean, director of the Center for Future Studies and International Information - which is the main French center concerned with research and international economics - believes that the US President has shown that he is capable of destruction but unable to build.

"When looking at what he got from China, one feels the urge to say, 'Is it all for this?'" Says Jan.

But the French analyst, in return, points to Trump's preference for changing the rules of the game towards China, which contributed to pushing the European Union to change its policy towards Beijing, including the joining of several European countries to the United States in banning Huawei's fifth generation Internet communication systems equipment. .

Like Jean, journalist Edward Alden credits Trump's success in renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, whose efforts are supported by Republicans and Democrats alike.

The truce reached in January to end the trade war between the United States and China left key contentious issues unresolved, such as theft of intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology.

Trump promoted his dealmaking skills as a successful businessman before his election, but he showed little understanding of the delicate and difficult multilateral trade negotiations.

Instead, he preferred to openly express his resentment over the German auto sector and French taxes on the tech giants.

There is no change in the content.

Even if the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, wins the presidential elections scheduled for the third of next November, as most opinion polls currently show, it is likely that Washington's trade policy will maintain some protectionism, and that the confrontation with China will continue, according to analysts.

In this context, the European Research Center "Bruegel" - based in Brussels - says that he believes that Biden's victory will mean a return to the more elegant American style of diplomacy, but believes that the content may not change much.

And journalist Alden notes that the differences between Trump and Biden on trade are smaller than those related to many other issues.

In recent years, Democrats and Republicans alike have adopted tougher stances toward China, which is not seen as an adversary to be contained as it has not evolved into a free market economy as hoped.

"With which candidates, the economic war is likely to expand," says Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics.

"The trade war was fundamentally a must, given China's economic rise, and it continued with high levels of state intervention instead of adopting market forces," she added.