In a move of many political and economic interpretations and analyzes about it, the Iraqi government launched last week the reform "white paper" to address the phenomenon of administrative and economic corruption rampant in the country, while specialists in economic affairs expected popular rejection, which may bring the protests back to the fore as they target the poor and middle classes.
Despite its doubts, this paper aspires to restore the Iraqi economy to its strength and integrity after the situation reached very low levels as a result of rampant corruption since 2003.
The white paper presented by the government is a document that includes new mechanisms for economic reform and includes hundreds of measures aimed at improving the economy and exploiting the country's resources in ways described as feasible.
The paper spans about 100 pages, and its implementation will be between 3 and 5 years.
Regarding the white paper, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi said, "It is a project for a solution to the chronic economic management crisis, complete dependence on oil and not to diversify sources of income."
The white reform paper that we presented today to the political forces is a project for a solution to the chronic economic management crisis, and complete dependence on oil and failure to diversify sources of income. The
interaction of the brotherhood in the political forces with the paper and its proposals expresses a responsibility towards our people that deserves to be praised.
- Mustafa Al-Kadhimi (@MAKadhimi) October 12, 2020
Failure before birth,
economists have ruled that the paper failed before its birth, as it targets the segment of employees and those who are inferior, in addition to its need for a suitable floor and a suitable environment, in contrast to the current situation in Iraq and for a longer period than the 3 to 5 years specified for its implementation.
What is wrong with the Iraqi economy for decades is that it is distorted and does not adopt a specific system to manage itself, and it is not known whether it is a socialist, capitalist or other direction, in contrast to the white paper that came in accordance with modern economic policies in line with the vision of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
And the proposed paper identified a path for the economy by identifying areas that can be privatized, such as public companies, which are mostly unproductive companies and some of them are losing money with the neutrality of the private sector in Iraq, according to economic researcher Raafat Al-Baldawi.
This paper is considered very ambitious if we look at its axes and the solutions that it proposed - as Al-Baldawi sees - which represents a positive point, but it will lead to many obstacles that prevent its implementation, as most of the projects dealt with in the paper are medium and long-term that need several years to implement, and the closest solutions to implementing them is to deduct a part From employee salaries or currency exchange rate change.
Al-Baldawi: The white paper is cruel and it is expected that it will fail and be rejected by the street (Al-Jazeera Net)
Harsh procedures,
Al-Baldawi described these measures as "very harsh" with the difficulty of implementing them at the present time, because their application is only supposed in times of prosperity and not in the current difficult economic conditions that the country is going through, with the high rates of poverty and the suffering of those with limited incomes as well as delayed salaries.
It is likely that the paper will be faced with widespread popular and parliamentary rejection that will lead to its abortion, indicating that the attempt to impose it may push the return of popular protests on a larger scale and with the participation of public sector employees, which may lead to the disruption of state institutions.
In his response to a question by Al-Jazeera Net, whether the annual period specified by the paper, which is 3-5 years, is sufficient to implement its provisions or not?
The Iraqi researcher believes that it needs a period of time that may reach 15 years in order to achieve the desired results.
He explained that some expenditures in the general budget are governing expenditures that cannot be reduced in a short period of time, with the need to change the policies of previous governments and the need for some projects proposed by the paper for huge sums of money, at a time when the country is going through difficult economic and political conditions.
Among the negative remarks that Al-Baldawi recorded on the paper is that it did not address the treatment of corruption, especially political corruption, except in the form he described as "timid" and its failure to contribute to dissolving any part of the current corruption, whether institutional or political.
Haji Rashid believes that the White Paper is the last opportunity for the government to save the country from economic collapse (Al-Jazeera Net)
A last chance
and Iraq had received a paper similar to the white paper from the International Monetary Fund in 2017 with the same content but with different frameworks, while a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, MP Ahmad Hajj Rashid, described it as old in its proposals and new in his proposal (Al-Kazemi)
,
considering it as the government's last opportunity to conduct Reforms and saving the country from economic and financial collapse.
The Parliamentary Finance Committee formed a sub-committee to study the presented paper while preparing a similar paper, at a time when this committee is not within the competence to provide opinion and advice to the government in this regard, but it seeks to contribute to economic reform, according to Haji Rashid's interview with Al-Jazeera Net.
Regarding the position of the Iraqi Parliament and the Finance Committee on this paper, and whether they will vote on it or not, Hajj Rasheed called for not to precede the events and talk prematurely, but to wait until the government sends the paper in the form of a draft law, and there will be a discussion by the council and the committee after reviewing its content in detail.
And what Iraq witnessed in 2020 is a reaction to wrong policies over many years. Successive governments have not been able to correct financial resources other than crude oil, which constitutes approximately 95% of the construction of the financial budget, and this makes the white paper and other economic, financial and administrative reform papers unable to Address the problems of the economy unless the sources of corruption are first drained and its heads are toppled, and laws that protect public funds are imposed.
Adhib believes that Al-Kazemi will use this card for his electoral balance and win the hearts of the street with his expectation that his plan will fail (Al-Jazeera)
Consolidation of the economy or the development of corruption?
Addressing economic problems requires several years to erase the effects of the negative aspects of the past - as the economic journalist Ali Karim Edheeb sees - attributing the reason to that Iraq is so far required to pay foreign debts to Iran, Kuwait and other countries, as well as debts to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and other obligations, wondering how it will be The financial balance between home and abroad in light of the health, political and economic crisis ?!
And he considered that the application of the white paper would widen the difference in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar between the official and parallel markets without government measures, in addition to considering it a new representation of corruption and illegal gain that leads to higher prices in the local market, according to Dahab's response as to whether this paper is Consolidation of the Iraqi economic identity or the development of corruption.
And whether the launch of this paper at this time by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi for electoral propaganda or to reform the country's economy?
Adheeb comments that Al-Kazemi's activity has become confined to social media without implementing important demands, and that this paper is included in the electoral balance and won the friendship of the street for him. Al-Kazemi's plan is likely to fail if the parliament passes the white paper, because it will begin to reduce the salaries of employees by a high rate.