Bolivia votes today a very close first round and with the party of Evo Morales caressing the presidency

• Profile: Evo Morales, the indigenous who succumbed to the honeys of power

It is called childbirth in the Bolivian style because nothing in the history of the Andean country is calm.

The latest example is the electoral process that culminates today in Bolivia, the first presidential round,

.

A boomerang of unsuspected dimensions that took Evo Morales ahead after 14 years in the Presidency.

The obsession with the power of the indigenous leader, supported by his revolutionary allies, opened the box of thunders that today keeps him in his Argentine exile, at the head of the campaign of the

and between accusations of all kinds launched from the provisional government.

Since then, so many events have happened that Netflix would need a series of several seasons to narrate them: exiles, sieges of cities, deaths in the streets, unknown provisional president, international mediations, the corruption of before and now and love scandals in the middle of a pandemic that has hit their society hard.

Such a carousel has caused tension and uncertainty to mix in the days leading up to Election Day in dangerous ways, including fear from European Union observers.

The historian

takes advantage of this situation to finish off her theory of childbirth in the Bolivian style: "At the same time this people maintains tenderness and in the end we are not as warriors as it seems. The elections will take place in a good atmosphere beyond the hard sectors of the MAS and other radicals. A lot of tension but the issues will be resolved until the last moment. The Electoral Tribunal has demonstrated much more institutionality than could be expected. "

At the moment the battle is centered on the polls, which are being opened today for more than seven million Bolivians to decide whether to give their trust to former minister

, or whether they bet on moderation. of the centrist candidate, Carlos Mesa, who has already served as president for almost two years.

"The result is so tight that I do not rule out anything at all. It will depend on a very emotional vote for the undecided. An open ending with a highly unpredictable result," states the political scientist

for EL MUNDO.es

.

This is confirmed by the polls, which place Arce close to the objective set by the electoral law: to reach 50% of the votes or overcome the 40% barrier with more than 10 points of advantage over Mesa, in full rise after the withdrawal of several candidates, including Jeanine Áñez, interim president.

The third candidate in dispute is Luis Fernando Camacho

, who, seized by a radical and religious discourse, seeks the miracle, although he will have to settle for being the faithful of the scale: if he manages to increase his support, especially in Santa Cruz, he will push to power whoever He fought in the streets last year by leading the rebellion against abuses by the ruling party.

Polls and helpful vote

EL MUNDO.es accessed a survey in recent days, unrelated to the parties, which confirms what has already been advanced, but with a novelty:

, but in the last 48 hours the useful vote has been transferred from Camacho to Table.

Fear may be a catalyst to confirm the second round, which would take place at the end of November.

"In general, in the campaign there was tolerance and only small incidents, with tacit acceptance of the results. But it is a race where in some departments the highest percentage is undecided, with a very strong secret vote, a surprise factor that can change the result ", predicts Cajías, knowing that cities are the bastion of anti-Masism and that Arce is very strong in the same indigenous areas where Evo was.

Gone are

of the former opposition for almost a decade and a half, "which did not know how to take advantage of its historic opportunity to mark the beginning of a new post-masist political project in Bolivia, and rather has dedicated itself to wearing out a lot The MAS has tried to readjust to the times in an untimely and unthinkable way with Morales here. A very short period in which the economic and social aspects have become the deepest concerns of the population, "says Arequipa.

One of the questions to be answered is the future of Morales, although the campaign has shown that the former president is not essential for the MAS.

"The vote for Arce is not a vote for Morales at all. The MAS has passed a consistency test, which had to do with refuting that thesis that if Evo was not there, the MAS would cease to exist. The MAS has shown that there is more massism than evismo. It is not about saving or vindicating Evo, but about

, "Arequipa sentenced.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

• Bolivia

• Evo Morales

BoliviaThe fall in popularity of President Áñez causes her abandonment of the electoral race

Latin AmericaBolivia closes the strangest campaign and amidst uncertainty

DiplomacyThe EPP and the Liberals accuse Josep Borrell of "whitewashing Maduro"

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