▲ Biden trend? vs The reversal of'Shy Trump'?
The 46th presidential election in the United States, held on November 3, has entered the countdown.
Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden set out to catch the final vote, focusing on advertising and campaigns in the swinging state that will win or lose.
A total of 538 electoral voters representing the 50 states in the United States, of which more than 270, a majority of them, will be elected.
In the rest of the states except for the two states Maine and Nebraska, the candidate with the most votes in each state as a result of the vote will take all the electoral votes assigned to that state.
Of the four electors assigned to Maine, two will be assigned the most votes in the state, and the remaining two will be assigned the two most votes in the Congressional Disrtict.
Of the five electors in Nebraska, two will be assigned the most votes in the state, and the remaining three will be assigned the most votes in the three congressional districts.
As for the recent poll results released by media companies daily, candidate Biden is by far the dominant.
The US CNN broadcast predicted that candidate Biden had already secured more than 290 electors and was elected as a result of public opinion polls.
The British economist analyzed that as of October 14, Democrat Biden has a 99% chance of winning more votes than President Trump, and a 91% chance of securing more electors and winning.
Candidate Joe Biden was predicted to secure 227-421 electors.
Poll results from other media outlets such as the New York Times have already shown that the trend has been on candidate Biden.
According to the Economist's survey results, the approval rating for Biden started to significantly outperform President Trump since last April, when the corona19 infection spread in the United States.
In particular, it was investigated that the gap has widened as President Trump himself, who screamed out on October 2, saying that Corona 19 was not very much, was infected with Corona 19.
However, being ahead of the votes does not necessarily mean winning the presidential election.
In the 45th presidential election held on November 8, 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was defeated by President Trump after winning 2.86 million more votes nationwide and 74 people in the electoral corps.
In Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, which were major contenders, President Trump won Clinton with a slight margin of vote and took all the electoral corps.
Even in the 2000 presidential election, Democratic Vice President Al Gore was ahead of Republican President George W. Bush in the national vote and was not elected.
This is a phenomenon that occurs because the US presidential election is a winner-take-all structure in which the most votes per state take all the electoral corps of that state.
Even if some states win with a large difference in votes and lead the overall vote, if a contending state loses with a small difference in votes, the entire electoral team in that state will be lost, and the final number of electoral teams secured may be smaller than the other candidates.
The fact that the number of electoral groups allocated by state is not proportional to the size of the population also increases the asymmetry between the votes and the number of electoral groups.
Maine and Nebraska give two seats to candidates with the highest votes in the state and allocate electoral corps to the candidates with the most votes per constituency in the House of Representatives, and in some states, the electoral corps independently prefers regardless of the state's vote. The ability to vote for candidates can be another variable.
Even if it appears to be dominant in public opinion polls conducted before voting, it does not necessarily win the actual vote.
In the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton was mostly ahead of Republican Trump in public opinion polls and was shown to have a much higher chance of winning, but in the actual presidential election, he lost to Trump.
It is also difficult to predict the outcome of the election that the polls responding to polls may differ from those who actually vote, and that there may be many voters who do not properly disclose their disposition in the polls.
If the so-called ``Shy Trump'' class, who supports Trump in this presidential election but doesn't say they support Trump in public opinion polls, participates in the voting, the voting results could be different.
As the media's critical reports about President Trump over the response to Corona 19 have been followed, there are analysis that there may have been more ``Shy Trump'' who support President Trump but cannot publicly express their support for Trump.
But most of all, the US media are convinced that the factor that determines the victory or defeat of this presidential election depends on which direction the voters' votes lean in the race state (Swing State) where the candidates for support change every time.
During the 2016 presidential election, President Trump was elected president, unexpectedly, by winning in contending states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida with a slight margin.
President Trump attacked that it was the Democratic Party's Free Trade (FTA) policy that weakened the U.S. manufacturing competitiveness in the so-called'Rust Belt' area, a traditional manufacturing center near the Great Lakes, which was considered the Democratic Party's garden with many workers and black people. I won here.
Opposition to illegal immigration and abortion has raised the support of conservative whites in rural and suburban areas.
The New York Times in the United States suggested four scenarios for the results of the presidential election, saying that although candidate Biden is ahead of the recent poll results, where the votes of more than 10 contenders lean will determine the final voting result (see chart and simulation above). .
First of all, it was analyzed that if the results of the 2016 presidential elections in the state of the race were the same, President Trump would secure more than 290 electors and be elected.
As a second scenario, President Trump diagnosed that if he wins by raising the approval rating of some contenders, whose votes appear to be leaning toward Democrat Biden in a recent poll, there is a possibility of securing more than 270 electors and winning the election.
However, if the votes leaning toward Biden as a recent move are solidified as the result of the vote, if Biden is elected by securing more than 290 electors, and finally, even Texas, which is leaning toward Trump, leans toward Biden and wins a complete victory. It is predicted that Candidate Biden will be elected with an overwhelming gap by securing more than 375 electors.
In the US presidential election, President Trump's poor response to Corona 19, a series of racism against black people by the police, the conspiracy to kidnap the governor by extreme militants, and conservative and progressive appointment of the Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. The ideological confrontation and President Trump's suspicion of tax evasion are expected to have a great influence on the vote.
In addition, it is expected that the number of pre-voting more than ever, such as the vote by mail that President Trump expressed his opposition to, will serve as a variable.
Will President Trump, who has been elected as the head of the company without any experience in military service or public office, and has led state affairs with various extreme policies for four years, can be re-elected with his peculiar fierceness and practical policies? The world is paying attention to whether to overcome the weak image and win the new president.
The result is how active people from all walks of life, including low-educated white workers, conservative rural voters and other Trump supporters, and citizens of large cities traditionally strong in support of the Democratic Party, and blacks and Hispanics, are voting and voting. Will depend.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election results approaching on the 19th are not yet blue, which symbolizes the Democratic Party, nor red, which symbolizes the Republican Party, but purple in the middle.
As interest in the direction of the American voters' minds is growing, interest in the Purple State, a state of contention like a reed, is also growing.
(Photo = The New York Times, Wikipedia)