About 50 more people died per 100,000 inhabitants in Sweden during the first wave of covid-19 than we would have seen if the pandemic had not occurred. 

With that figure, Sweden ends up in seventh place in Europe, according to a new study published in Nature Medicine.

England and Wales, Spain, Italy, Scotland and Belgium are at the top of the list.

"What is new about this study is that they have collected good data from all these countries and made proper calculations where many parameters have been included," says Karin Modig, epidemiologist at Karolinska Institutet where she is working on her own study on excess mortality during pandemic.

England has the highest excess mortality

England and Wales top the list with about 100 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the spring of 2020.  

The researchers compared data from 19 European countries;

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, and Australia and New Zealand.

How old is the population?

By comparing the mortality of these 21 countries from 2010 to mid-February 2020, a model has been created for what “normal” mortality should be if the pandemic had not occurred.

The researchers then compared it with the first wave, ie the number of deaths between mid-February to May 2020.

"The most important thing when comparing excess mortality between countries is to take into account the difference in age structure in the population, and this has been done here," says Karin Modig.

Tougher restrictions, lower excess mortality - in the short term

The study concludes that countries that had harder closures had lower mortality during the first wave, but the researchers also point out that many of the health effects of the closure have not yet been studied. 

—You may see a direct effect of the pandemic not affecting excess mortality during shutdown.

But when you shut down cancer screening and much more, it takes effect later.

That is why it is important that we continue to study excess mortality for the whole of 2020 and beyond, says Karin Modig.

We have contacted the Swedish Public Health Agency for a comment specifically on this study, which has declined.