On October 15, the deadline set by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for resolving the situation around the final withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union expires.

On this day, the EU summit starts, at which, among other issues, Brexit will be discussed.

Recall that after three years of unsuccessful negotiations, London officially left the European Union on January 31, 2020.

However, in the absence of a deal, the UK agreed to abide by current trade rules until 31 December 2020.

If the parties do not come to a compromise, it is possible that trade and economic relations between Brussels and the United Kingdom will be regulated by the WTO rules, which will entail an increase in customs duties.

European officials say openly that negotiations on an agreement with London are far from over and the upcoming summit will not bring results.

As the French secretary of state under the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Clement Bon, said on October 12 on the air France info, the EU and the UK could reach a compromise in a few weeks - presumably in early November.

At the same time, he stressed that Europe should not make “unprofitable concessions”.

Meanwhile, the EU is already preparing to implement a no-deal Brexit.

This was announced in early October by the Deputy Head of the European Commission for Forecasting Maros Shefchovich, speaking at a session of the European Parliament.

According to the official's forecast, the parties may not be able to reach an agreement before December 31, 2020.

Controversial issues

The pivotal contradiction between London and Brussels is the Johnson government's bill to ensure the integrity of the country's domestic market.

The European Union demands to change this document, but the British leadership ignores the calls of the European colleagues.

Johnson's bill allows London, at its discretion, to repeal the rules of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, agreed with the EU last October (the “Northern Ireland Protocol”).

These rules assume that Ulster will remain in the customs zone of the European Union after January 1, 2021, unlike England, Wales and Scotland.

The Northern Ireland Protocol was seen as major progress in the Brexit negotiations.

In addition, he solved the problem of ensuring the transparency of the border between independent Ireland and Ulster.

  • Belfast, capital of Northern Ireland

  • Gettyimages.ru

  • © Maciej Grabowicz / EyeEm

The absence of any demarcation lines and customs restrictions on the island is spelled out in the 1998 Belfast Peace Agreement, which made it possible to end a series of terrorist attacks and armed clashes between British security forces and Irish nationalists.

However, Johnson's bill could lead to the restoration of border controls, which critics fear will destabilize the situation in Northern Ireland.

Another problem that remains on the agendas of London and Brussels is the UK's unwillingness to consider future commercial disputes with EU companies in the European Court of Justice, experts say.

Also, London claims a significant increase in fishing quotas.

The chief negotiator on Brexit from Brussels, Michel Barnier, considers London's demands unacceptable and discriminatory towards European companies.

The EU insists on maintaining the same shares of production and access rights to the exclusive economic zone of Great Britain.

The topic of fishing was discussed by Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron during a telephone conversation on October 10.

The leaders were unable to reach a compromise, but agreed to continue negotiations with the aim of ensuring equal competition for British and European businesses.

The European division of the American newspaper Politico predicts that Brussels will most likely make concessions to London on the fish issue.

According to the newspaper, following telephone consultations with the authorities of Ireland, Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, France and Sweden, Barnier admitted the possibility of increasing quotas for British companies.

At the same time, according to the British newspaper The Financial Times, the leaders of the leading states of continental Europe intend to put pressure on Barnier to seek to tighten the provisions of the draft deal with the United Kingdom.

Another British publication, The Guardian, citing diplomatic documents, reports on the growing distrust of Brussels towards Johnson.

In particular, members of the European Commission suspect the prime minister of deliberately delaying the search for compromises on key issues.

Thus, according to the EU, the British prime minister is biding his time for a "mutually beneficial exchange."

On the eve of the EU summit, Johnson held telephone talks with Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

In a conversation with colleagues from continental Europe, the head of the British government did not rule out the scenario of the kingdom's complete exit from the EU without a deal.

Johnson calls the option of Brexit without a trade agreement with Brussels a guarantee of "colossal prosperity" for the kingdom.

The British prime minister is confident that the country can follow the example of Australia, which trades with continental Europe at WTO tariffs.

“We, as a government, are preparing for this, the preparation covers our border areas and our ports ... We will have complete control over our laws, regulations and fishing grounds ... But we cannot and will not retreat from what constitutes the foundations of state independence, ”Johnson said on September 7 on the eve of the next round of talks with Brussels.

  • Fishing by British fishermen

  • Reuters

  • © Andrew Couldridge

In early October, in an interview with BBC journalist Andrew Marru Johnson, he called on the EU to soften its stance on London's demands.

According to the British Prime Minister, Brussels must understand that the United Kingdom is "very serious" about securing its legislative autonomy and intends to regain control over fish-rich marine areas.

Earlier in an interview with The Daily Mail, London's chief Brexit negotiator David Frost stressed that the United Kingdom is not going to remain dependent on the EU.

As the official explained, if negotiations on the deal fail, then trade relations with continental Europe will be built either according to the Australian scenario, or according to the Canadian model, involving the creation of a free trade zone.

According to the forecast of The Daily Telegraph sources, due to mutual intransigence, the parties may indeed not agree on the deal.

With reference to one of the diplomats, the publication reported that, most likely, London will be forced to conclude bilateral agreements with EU member states to mitigate the trade and economic consequences of Brexit.

"Doesn't see an equal partner"

As Natalya Eremina, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, explained in an interview with RT, Johnson is a much more difficult negotiator for Brussels than the previous Prime Minister Theresa May.

According to the expert, under the pretext of defending sovereignty, the head of the British government is really ready to go for the most radical scenario of Brexit.

“Johnson does not see the EU as a worthy equal partner.

He wants to demonstrate that he is not afraid of anything and that the UK should put its sovereignty above all other formalities and agreements, including the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, although Belfast is interested in maintaining a common market with the EU, ”says Eremina.

The expert believes that the British government is trying to force Brussels to make concessions.

Nevertheless, the EU authorities are not ready to fulfill the requirements of London and put up with the bill on the internal market.

From the point of view of Eremina, there is currently a stalemate that makes the most possible option for the final exit of the kingdom from the EU without a trade deal.

“Boris Johnson believes that the UK should develop trade contacts without EU mediation.

London is trying to focus not on the common market of the European Union, but on deepening cooperation with the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, East Asia and Africa.

Thus, Johnson is trying to calm down business and society, but withdrawal without an agreement will hurt the British economy, ”Eremina stated.

In a conversation with RT, Kira Godovanyuk, senior researcher at the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that London is bargaining with Brussels in the hope of getting the most favorable conditions.

At the same time, the EU still refuses to make significant concessions.

The most likely scenario Godovanyuk also calls Brexit without a deal, which will be "extremely painful" for the kingdom.

“If the scenario of withdrawal without an agreement is implemented, Johnson will do his best to show his electorate that this is primarily the fault of Brussels, which refused to take into account British interests.

The consequences for London will be extremely painful, since the main supply chains are somehow tied to Europe.

Cooperation with other states does not compensate Britain for the economic losses from Brexit.

The effect of the reorientation will be felt only in the long or medium term ”, concluded Godovanyuk.