The disputes in the Naka region are fermented. The war between Asia and Afghanistan continues
. Will the "powder barrel" of the South Caucasus be detonated?
(Global hot spots)
Since September 27, Armenia and Azerbaijan have erupted in a new round of military conflicts in the sovereignty disputed Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement to launch a military offensive.
On October 10, the foreign ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia issued a statement in Moscow, and the parties agreed to a ceasefire in the Naka region from 12:00 on that day.
However, a paper agreement is difficult to dispel the old grudges.
A few minutes after the ceasefire agreement on the 10th took effect, the two countries broke out again and both said they were attacked by each other.
On October 11, the Azerbaijan News Agency and the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced that Ganja, the second largest city in Azerbaijan, was attacked by artillery shells from Armenia.
Armenia denied this.
The Asian-African conflict continues, and the Naka region, known as the "gunpowder barrel" of the South Caucasus, is filled with smoke, which once again arouses concern and worry about the situation in the region and the peace process.
Old grudge
The issue of belonging to the Naka region is the core concern of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Recently, Azerbaijani President Aliyev made a strong statement in an interview with Turkish national television that the main purpose of Azerbaijan in the Naka region is to achieve national "territorial integrity" and maintain "historical justice."
The Armenian side believes that this attack by Azerbaijan is a disregard for the "independence" willingness that the people of the Naka region have continuously shown since the late 1980s.
The Naka region is located in the southwest of Azerbaijan, adjacent to Armenia.
During the Soviet period, Naka was an autonomous prefecture in Azerbaijan, but most of the local residents were Armenians.
In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, which led to conflicts between the Arab and Asian ethnic groups in the state.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for naqa.
In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue.
At present, the Armenian Autonomous Authorities have actual control over Naqqa.
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, in April 2016, Ya'a broke out in Naca, killing at least 200 people.
In July this year, the two sides broke out again in the border area, killing at least 16 people.
The new round of conflict that began on September 27 was the fiercest battle between the two sides since 1994, and the war even spread to areas outside of Nakka.
According to a Reuters report on October 8, the conflict has caused at least 400 deaths in both Asia and Afghanistan.
"'Nagorno' comes from Russian, which means'mountain', and'Karabakh' comes from Turkish, which means'black garden'. Nagorno is a region where multiculturalism and multiethnic coexistence exist, and its ownership issues It’s a “confusion” left over from the Soviet era.” Xu Tao, director of the Central Asia Research Office of the Eurasian Social Development Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with our reporter that the historical contradictions between Asia and Afghanistan are deeply ingrained, and the two sides have a sovereignty Issues are highly sensitive; at the same time, the epidemic has aggravated domestic economic problems and social contradictions, easily aroused extreme nationalism and populism, and led to the outbreak of historical contradictions between the two sides.
Jiang Yi, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to our reporter that under the influence of the epidemic, both Asia and Algeria need to use nationalism to strengthen national unity and government governance. The occurrence of this conflict is accidental in time; Judging from the reality of the accumulation of contradictions and the escalation of confrontational attitudes between the two sides over the years, and the continuous border friction since this year, this conflict is again inevitable.
Game
The war in the Naka region has re-emerged, and the international community has paid great attention.
On September 27, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement calling on the two sides to immediately stop military conflicts, cool down the current tension and immediately resolve the issue through negotiations.
Russia, the United States, and the European Union have also expressed their views, urging the two sides to immediately cease fire and resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations.
"The Naka conflict is not just a contest between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but behind it is the game of powers inside and outside the region." Xu Tao pointed out.
Analysts believe that the European Union is committed to transporting Azerbaijan’s Caspian natural gas to Europe via the "Southern Gas Corridor" in order to promote a strategy of diversifying energy sources. It definitely does not want the stability of the region to be disrupted and affect its future energy security.
Russia has been actively playing the role of the main "mediator" in the Asian-African conflict.
As early as 1992, under the initiative of Russia, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group consisting of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs to coordinate the resolution of the Naqqa issue.
After the outbreak of this new round of conflicts, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that Aya will conduct "substantial negotiations" under the mediation of the Minsk group to find a peaceful solution as soon as possible.
Xu Tao pointed out that Russia attaches great importance to its influence in the South Caucasus.
Armenia is located in the strategic space zone in the west of Russia. It not only joined the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia, but also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the Commonwealth of Independent States and an important strategic partner of Russia.
Russia will not allow the situation in Naqqa to get out of control and cause instability in its outer space.
Turkey clearly "stands in line".
Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu stated that Turkey is on the Azerbaijani side both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
The press office of the Turkish Presidential Palace also stated that the Turkish side will do its utmost to help Azerbaijan "retake the occupied land."
President Aliyev said that after the two sides achieve a ceasefire, Turkey must participate in the peace process in the Naka region.
Jiang Yi analyzed that Turkey clearly supports Azerbaijan in politics, diplomacy and even military, and its main goal is to expand its influence in the Caucasus.
At the same time, Azerbaijan requested Turkey to become a participant in the Minsk mediation team, which also established a platform for Turkey to intervene in the Naqqa issue.
problem
Since 1992, different levels of negotiations on the Naka issue have been held within the framework of the Minsk Group, but the negotiations have not made substantial progress so far.
Around the Naka dispute, Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be caught in a cycle of "conflict, ceasefire, and re-conflict".
According to the Russian Satellite Network, on October 10, after more than ten days of military conflict, the two sides agreed to cease fire in the Naka area from 12:00 on that day, and exchange prisoners of war and the remains of victims under the coordination of the International Red Cross. .
However, as the ink on the ceasefire agreement was not dry, conflict broke out again between the two sides, and the problem returned to its original point.
What is the future path of peace in the Naka region?
"The issue of the ownership of the Naqa region and the right of national self-determination is very complex, involving international law, international politics and historical factors. The two countries have huge differences in their appeals, and they have not found a breakthrough in the past 30 years." Jiang Yi believes At present, the realization of the ceasefire between the two sides is largely a response to Russia’s call, and at the same time, they hope to maintain the international community’s recognition of their own image.
However, the ceasefire is a short-lived act to solve certain humanitarian issues and is very fragile.
"Whether the differences between the two sides still exist, whether and how to achieve a long-term ceasefire remains to be seen."
The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently issued a statement stating that Ya’a’s announcement of the ceasefire was for humanitarian reasons such as the exchange of prisoners of war and funerals. This is an important first step, but it will not replace a permanent solution.
On October 5th, President Aliyev reiterated a series of preconditions for the ceasefire, including the Prime Minister of Armenia apologizing to the Azerbaijani people, acknowledging that the Naka region does not belong to Armenia, and announcing the timetable for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the Naka region.
In Jiang Yi's view, the various requirements put forward by President Azerbaijan involve many issues. Under the circumstance that the antagonism between the two sides has not been completely eliminated, it is difficult to determine the specific solution to the Naqqa issue. This will be the greatest difficulty in achieving peace.
"At present, the tendency of various countries to protect themselves on security issues is becoming more and more obvious, and the cooperative attitude shown by some major countries is not positive. There is still a long way to go to achieve long-term peace."
Xu Tao said: “Both parties to the conflict need to realize that a regional hotspot that can be ignited at any time is of no benefit to anyone. All parties should establish a sense of a community with a shared future, and negotiate and resolve disputes in a peaceful and equal manner.”
Li Jiabao