A Spanish national flag in Madrid, a locally confined city -

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  • The French government is sounding the alarm bells at the start of the week on the circulation of the virus, and warns that it could take new health and restrictive measures.

  • In Europe, measures different from France have been taken, including curfews or local confinement, often cited among the avenues considered by the French government.

  • How exactly do these measures work and could they work in France?

This is the great dilemma of the French government.

While all the signals of the circulation of the coronavirus turn red (scarlet) and Prime Minister Jean Castex spoke for the first time on Monday of a "second wave" in progress, how to avoid a generalized reconfinement, disastrous for the economy and the morale of the French?

If the current measures - reinforced health protocol in restaurants, closure of sports halls and bars in areas with high circulation of the virus, encouragement of teleworking, attendance gauge at the university - are not enough or no longer enough to slow down the spread of the epidemic, what solutions are left to the government?

Towards local re-containment?

The latter could be inspired by what is done in our European neighbors, also affected more or less brutally by an epidemic rebound.

Spain, the country of the Old Continent to suffer the most violently from the second wave, has opted for localized confinements.

This Tuesday, it is now about forty cities and municipalities that are affected by this turn of the screw, including the capital of Madrid.

Unlike confinement as the country experienced during the first wave, the inhabitants of the municipalities concerned can freely leave their homes, circulate as they see fit in the city.

On the other hand, to enter or leave these municipalities, it is necessary to provide compelling reasons (work, close patient, hospital, school, case of force majeure).

It is thus more than 5.5 million Spaniards who must remain in their municipality, where the incidence of the virus is higher than in the rest of the country.

In the Madrid region, 20% of hospital capacity and 38% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, compared to 8% and 18% respectively for the national average.

Beware of muddy water elsewhere

However, such disparities also exist in France.

In Paris, for example, the positivity rate for tests exceeds 17%, against less than 12% for the country as a whole.

The national worsening of the virus figures because of inhabitants of a hyperepidemic region moving across the country was notably observed in Italy during the first wave.

In fact, the local confinement of cities in a maximum alert zone is increasingly mentioned to thwart the epidemic resumption in France.

But for epidemiologist Catherine Hill, this does not seem to be a relevant solution: "The virus is already circulating everywhere so confining locally the areas where the virus circulates the most would not prevent it from circulating elsewhere, and the areas already red would remain red. , while the orange areas would turn red since we would not take care of them.

This is putting the lid on one pot while the water will continue to boil elsewhere.

"

Especially since the problem of megalopolises arises, and of the centralization of our country, much greater than in the rest of Europe.

“Confining a small town like Boulogne-sur-Mer is easy.

Confining Paris or the big cities is much more complex, underlines Doctor Michaël Rochoy.

Where does Paris begin and end?

Intra-muros, the inner suburbs, the periphery?

Paris is a transit city through which all trains pass as well as international flights.

In such a centralized country, to confine Paris is to confine France a little.

"

The curfew, the German solution

In Berlin, Cologne and Frankfurt, German cities with more than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, all establishments - with the exception of petrol stations and pharmacies - are closed at night between 10 or 11 p.m. and 6 a.m.

The measure will last at least until October 31.

In England, the legendary pubs close at 10 p.m. in medium traffic areas, especially London.

But here too, Catherine Hill is not convinced for the French case: “Of course, by limiting everyone's interactions, we limit the circulation of the virus a little, but what are interactions during night schedules of curfews facing students going to university, employees contaminating themselves in the office ...?

It is only a measuring spoon that can perhaps slow down the propagation a little but in no case stop it.

And that is done in Germany, which has a much lower impact than ours.

To close the bars currently in France, it is useless and it does not weigh heavily in the face of the circulation of the virus during the day.

"

Even more harmful side effects?

It is perhaps for this reason that Boris Johnson has decided to tighten even more the screw in the north of England, and a fortiori in the region of Liverpool, zone of maximum alert with 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

From October 14, the 1.5 million inhabitants of the area will see the closing of pubs, cafes, gyms or leisure centers - even during the day - and the restriction of travel outside the areas concerned.

If he approves the idea that the circulation of the virus during the day is much more important than that at night, Mickaël Rochoy is less critical of the measure of a "simple" night curfew: "Of course in small towns, it does not help and does not change anything, but there is no denying a certain nightlife in Paris, Madrid or Berlin.

However, we know that we are twice as likely to be infected in restaurants or bars than elsewhere, places where we are forced to remove our mask, and I remind you that we are talking about a respiratory virus.

Closing at 10 p.m. seems a good compromise so as not to have an economic impact on restaurants and bars while limiting a certain number of interactions.

"

Even if a risk remains for the doctor: the side effects of such a measure.

Understand that there are two diametrically opposed hypotheses regarding the circulation of the coronavirus: if, once the bars are closed, everyone stays at home in front of Netflix, the measure will have certain effects.

If without a bar, everyone ends up in a person's apartment to party anyway, “this could worsen the transmission, because there will be even more contact and often a total absence of masks, even during trips ”.

It remains to be seen in Germany, but also in Marseille, Paris and elsewhere, the long-term effects of such a measure.

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