Stockholm (AFP)
Inequalities, economic psychology, auctions, health or the job market?
The economics prize ends on Monday a very feminine Nobel 2020 season, with four crowned laureates in science and literature.
The latest Nobel Prize, officially "the Bank of Sweden's Prize in Economics in Memory of Alfred Nobel", first awarded in 1969, is due around 11:45 am (09:45 GMT) in Stockholm.
After having rewarded in 2019 the Franco-American Esther Duflo and the Americans Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer for their work on the reduction of poverty in the world, several names are circulating in the media and academia.
American Claudia Goldin, who has worked on inequalities and the role of women in the economy, could become the -only- third winner of the prestigious award, along with her compatriot Anne Krueger, former number 2 (and briefly leader ) of the International Monetary Fund, an annuity specialist and free trade activist.
If a woman were to win on Monday, 2020 would equal the 2009 record of five winners in one vintage.
The number of laureates has increased markedly since the start of the 21st century, but they still represent only one in 20 Nobel medals since 1901.
- American domination -
The economy has so far been the Nobel where the profile of the future winner was the easiest to guess: a man over 55 years old, of American nationality.
Over the past 20 years, three quarters of them fit this description.
The average age of the winners is over 65, the highest of the six prizes awarded.
Again cited among the favorites: the American Paul Milgrom, 72, associated with his compatriot Robert Wilson, 83, for their theory on the optimization of auctions, notably used in the allocation of telecom frequencies, such as the 5G.
The American-Israeli Joshua Angrist, professor at MIT in the United States, also holds the rope for his largely experimental work, which in particular shed light on the link between duration of studies and income or even class size and academic success.
Other pioneers of "natural experiments", such as the Canadian David Card, could be associated with him.
The Israeli Elhanan Helpman and the American Gene Grossman, specialists in international trade, are also cited.
In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, the chances of health economists could also increase, like the 2020 prize for medicine, awarded for the first time in twelve years to virologists, in this case the discoverers of the Hepatitis C.
“It seems more relevant than ever,” notes Swedish economics professor Micael Dahlén.
The American Paul Slovic, specialist in risk psychology, "could be a good profile for his work on how we value human lives," he predicts.
Other pioneers who injected psychology into economic research, such as the Americans Matthew Rabin or Colin Camerer or the Swiss-Austrian Ernst Fehr, are considered nobel.
On the French side, the names of Thomas Piketty or Olivier Blanchard were cited to become the fifth tricolor winner.
- Controversial discipline -
Even though it is the most prestigious award for a researcher in economics, the prize has not acquired the same status as the disciplines chosen by Alfred Nobel in his founding testament (medicine, physics, chemistry, peace and literature), his detractors mocking him as a "false Nobel" over-representing orthodox and liberal economists.
The prize will come to close a Nobel season marked on Friday by the peace prize of the World Food Program, the UN body for the fight against hunger.
Thursday, the American poet Louise Glück had won literature.
In addition to the American Andrea Ghez, co-winner in physics on Tuesday, two women have entered the history of the Nobels for their discovery of "genetic scissors": the French Emmanuelle Charpentier and the American Jennifer Doudna became the first 100% female duo to win a scientific Nobel.
The winners, who share nearly a million euros for each discipline, will receive their prize this year in their country of residence, due to coronavirus.
© 2020 AFP