"Zone of Historical Responsibility": How Moscow Helped Yerevan and Baku Agree on a Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh

On Saturday, October 10, a ceasefire came into force in Nagorno-Karabakh and came into force at 12:00 local time (11:00 Moscow time).

The heads of the Foreign Ministries of Armenia and Azerbaijan Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov came to such an agreement last night at a meeting in Moscow.

As Maria Zakharova, an official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, wrote on her Facebook, the agreement was the result of 11 hours of work by diplomats.

Zakharova published the text of a joint statement by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The document states that the parties agreed on a number of steps in response to the appeal of Russian President Vladimir Putin and in accordance with the agreements between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

• Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan (left to right) at trilateral talks

• RIA News

• © Press Service of the Russian Foreign Ministry

"A ceasefire is announced from 12:00 on October 10, 2020 for humanitarian purposes for the exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons and bodies of the dead, mediated and in accordance with the criteria of the International Committee of the Red Cross," reads the first paragraph of the document.

The second paragraph states that the specific parameters of the ceasefire regime will be agreed upon additionally.

It is also specified that Baku and Yerevan, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, "on the basis of the basic principles of the settlement, are starting substantive negotiations with the aim of achieving a peaceful settlement as soon as possible."

By the fourth point, the parties confirm "the invariability of the format of the negotiation process." 

However, almost immediately after the ceasefire came into force, Baku and Yerevan accused each other of violating the agreements.

The press secretary of the Armenian Ministry of Defense, Shushan Stepanyan, reported on her Facebook page about the attack by Azerbaijani forces on the Karahambeyli section (A village in Nagorno-Karabakh -

).

Subsequently, Stepanyan wrote that "before the establishment of a humanitarian ceasefire, the Azerbaijani side made an attempt to sabotage and reconnaissance penetration in the direction of Hadrut" (a settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. -

) and for about three hours "actions continue to block and destroy the invading group." ...

At the same time, the remaining sectors of the front are "relatively calm," she added.

For its part, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry accused the Armenian military of shelling the Terter and Aghdam regions.

Towards the evening of October 10, the head of the sector for work with foreign media and NGOs of the presidential administration of Azerbaijan, Fuad Akhundov, announced a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to the official, hostilities were stopped during the day.

“The firing points that continued to shoot were suppressed,” he said at a briefing to Russian media.

As Andrei Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, explained in a commentary to RT, such accusations after the announcement of a ceasefire is a standard situation in resolving conflicts of this kind.

“The fact that a political decision was made to end the hostilities inspires hope that a truce will come.

But it is difficult to extinguish the conflict at once, because the opponents are now full of grievances, ”the expert said.

A similar point of view is shared by the head of the department of the Institute of Law and National Security of the RANEPA, Alexander Mikhailenko.

“This is a common situation when the just signed ceasefire agreement is violated.

The enmity cannot be stopped at one moment simply by a decision from above.

I admit that the implementation of the agreement in one way or another will be accompanied by violations and mutual accusations.

However, in any case, the scale of possible shelling will already be incomparably less than at the height of the conflict, "Mikhailenko said in a commentary on RT.

World reaction

We will remind, earlier, on October 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an end to the hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for humanitarian reasons.

The corresponding statement came "after a series of telephone conversations" with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan and was published on the Kremlin's official website.

"On October 9, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia are invited to Moscow to hold consultations on these issues with the mediation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia," the Russian president said in a statement.

Commenting on the results of the talks, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan called the solution of humanitarian issues, as well as the consolidation of ceasefire mechanisms, as the main tasks based on the results of the agreements reached.

• Vladimir Putin

• RIA News

• © Alexey Druzhinin

The head of the diplomatic department also noted the role of Moscow, Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as well as the heads of the OSCE Minsk Group member states in the settlement of the conflict.

“I would like to emphasize the role of Russia and the President of the Russian Federation.

He made personal efforts, like others, ”RIA Novosti quoted Mnatsakanyan as saying. 

In turn, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the military part of the current crisis has come to an end.

“The military unit, or its first part, has come to an end.

Now we have reached a political settlement that will ensure that we reach the end and get what is rightfully ours, ”Aliyev said in an interview with RBC.

Third countries commented on the ceasefire agreement.

Thus, the Austrian Foreign Ministry welcomed the decision taken at the meeting in Moscow.

Vienna also hopes for an early start of negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry also spoke on the issue of the ceasefire declared in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The agency said that a ceasefire cannot replace the final resolution of the crisis.

Ankara also stressed that the Turkish side will support those decisions that Baku will approve.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart, expressed support for the agreements reached following the results of the trilateral talks in Moscow.

This is stated in the message of the Kremlin press service.

Berlin also welcomed the agreement - this is stated in the message, which was distributed on Saturday by the German Foreign Ministry.

Military aggravation

It should be reminded that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh entered an acute phase on September 27, when armed clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The parties shifted the blame for the aggravation on each other.

In Baku, they announced a "military provocation" from the Armenian side.

In Yerevan, in turn, they reported about the "beginning of the offensive" of the Azerbaijani troops.

Martial law was introduced in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the Armenian authorities also announced the mobilization of reservists.

• Declaration of a state of emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh, 1990

• RIA News

• © Igor Mikhalev

This conflict goes back to 1988, when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were still part of the USSR.

At that time, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region of the Azerbaijan SSR, as well as seven surrounding regions of Azerbaijan, became the subject of a territorial dispute.

From 1991 to 1994, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh did not stop, as a result of which the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was formed. 

The international community made the first attempts to resolve the conflict in Transcaucasia back in 1992.

Then the OSCE Minsk Group was formed, which included 11 countries.

The group was co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States.

However, this association did not have real leverage over the situation and was unable to reconcile the opponents.

The four resolutions of the UN Security Council, which also called for a ceasefire and ensuring the safety of civilians, did not help to stop the war.

Perceptible progress towards peace began in March 1994 after Moscow took the initiative to organize negotiations between the leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan with the participation of the leaders of the CIS countries.

As a result, the parties adopted a Statement of Cessation of Hostilities, which they signed at the talks in May 1994.

During the current round of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, the Presidents of Russia, France and the United States issued a joint statement condemning the escalation of violence.

The first round of negotiations of the OSCE Minsk Group on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh took place on October 8 in Geneva, the next one is scheduled for October 12, it will be held in Moscow.

This was announced earlier by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Historical mission

However, experts do not pin great hopes on negotiations in the "Minsk" format.

As Andrey Suzdaltsev noted,

Moscow is the key arbiter in the region.

“Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are historically close countries for Russia, and the fact that the truce was reached not in Geneva, but under the auspices of Moscow, suggests that Russia remains an influential force for the Transcaucasus and the entire post-Soviet space.

However, it is important for the OSCE group to become the guarantor of the truce, ”Suzdaltsev said.

Alexander Mikhailenko adheres to a similar point of view.

As he noted, mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is "an extremely difficult role", since there are deep contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the conflict has lasted for three decades.

• Destroyed houses in Stepanakert

• RIA News

“Therefore, for the parties to be able to agree on an armistice, it took 11 hours of negotiations.

Russia is able to bring the parties to the negotiating table, since both Baku and Yerevan respect Moscow's position.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have friendly relations with Russia.

As for the OSCE Minsk Group, without Russia's parallel efforts, its work could hardly lead to the suspension of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, ”the expert is sure.

As the director of the Institute of Newest States, political scientist Alexei Martynov, noted in a commentary to RT, experience shows that it is Moscow that can handle the mediation mission in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict most effectively.

“The fact is that Russia is the only country that is really interested in restoring peace in the Transcaucasus, as well as in the entire post-Soviet space.

And this space, in any case, remains a zone of Russia's historical responsibility, ”the expert summed up.