What if Trump is unable to be a candidate?

Donald Trump

Air Force One on August 28, 2020. -

It is no longer a simple “October surprise” but a real thunderclap.

Thursday, one month before the November 3 presidential election, Donald Trump announced that he had tested positive for the coronavirus.

Friday evening, the American president joined the Walter Reed military hospital by helicopter "as a precaution".

According to his doctor, Donald Trump has only "mild symptoms" and he was treated with an experimental treatment via an injection of synthetic antibodies.

If he has a more than 90% chance of recovering in the next few weeks, his age (74 years), his overweight (moderate obesity) and his sex (male) are aggravating factors.

With a question as indelicate as it is crucial on everyone's mind: what if the US president is unable to stand as a candidate?

It's complicated, and even the experts are in doubt.

Could the election be postponed?

This is the simplest answer.

It is possible but it never happened, not even during WWII.

Article 2 of the constitution gives Congress the power to fix the date of the poll.

Since 1845, it has taken place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November - this year on the 3rd. To change it would require a vote in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

This is unlikely because the latter is controlled by the Democrats, who have no interest in supporting a postponement.

Can Donald Trump hand over to Mike Pence?

It is possible, temporarily or permanently.

George W. Bush, during his two colonoscopies, had signed a short-term transfer to give full powers to Dick Cheney.

Friday, the White House indicated that this was not on the program: Donald Trump remains the "commander in chief".

And this transfer only concerns the current presidency, which runs until January 20.

It is for the election that everything is complicated.

Could the Republican Party choose another candidate?

According to party rules, if the person chosen at the convention is unable to be a candidate, a new vote is taken to appoint a replacement.

The problem is that postal voting has started, and the ballots have already been printed.

Clearly, it is probably too late to change.

Can Electoral College Grand Voters Vote For Another Person?

We get to the heart of the problem.

The American presidential election does not take place by direct universal ballot.

The founding fathers, who did not fully trust the populace, created the hybrid electoral college system.

Technically, Americans do not vote for a candidate but for 538 electors.

Who meet on December 14 to designate the American president.

In theory, the Republican Party could therefore choose a new champion (not necessarily Mike Pence), who, if he / she obtains the majority of 270 votes, would become president.

In theory.

A big legal mess

The problem is, each state has different rules for the voters.

About half of them ban “faitheless electors”, those big voters who do not respect the popular vote and vote for someone else.

In over 200 years, there have been 180, but they have never changed the outcome of a poll.

Until July 2020, they only risked a fine.

But according to a recent Supreme Court ruling, they can now be sanctioned or even dismissed.

In short, as law professor Rick Hasen points out on Slate, the ballot could turn "into electoral chaos" and would undoubtedly be settled in court.

Asked by

, Martin Redish, who teaches constitutional law at Northwestern University in Chicago, shows humility: a last-minute withdrawal of a presidential candidate "has never happened in history .

We don't know how it would turn out ”.

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