Donald Trump to see his election campaign turned upside down by his positive coronavirus test -

Carolyn Kaster / AP / SIPA

  • This is the latest twist in an American campaign full of surprises: Donald Trump has just tested positive for the coronavirus this Friday.

  • News that could well have consequences on the dynamics of the campaign, just 32 days before the elections.

  • 20 Minutes

    interviewed Jean-Eric Branaa, a political scientist specializing in the United States, on the upheavals that this positive test could imply.

In the United States, Americans call it “the October surprise”.

Each recent presidential election is marked by a totally unexpected event that upsets the last weeks of the campaign, or even changes the dynamics of the two camps.

In 2000, the revelation of a drunken control of George W. Bush, twenty-six years earlier, in 2004, the broadcast of a video of Osama bin Laden, in 2012, the passage of a hurricane.

For 2020, the last days of the campaign will undoubtedly be marked by Donald Trump's positive coronavirus test this Friday.

To understand the consequences that this test may have on the end of the campaign,

20 Minutes

interviewed Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer and political scientist specializing in the United States.

Is Donald Trump's positive Covid test bad news for his presidential campaign, 32 days before the election?

Donald Trump's big problem is this pandemic that will have weighed on his campaign.

Not only has he not been able to go into the field and do his meetings where he excels, but in addition, his record and his management of the epidemic are criticized.

He had succeeded in making people forget the pandemic in the presidential campaign for a few days.

During the debate against Joe Biden for example, everyone accepted the violence of the debate, its very mediocrity, but in fact, we were not talking about the coronavirus.

Now, the Covid is once again at the center of the news.

Everyone talks about nothing more than that, all the channels, all the Americans, all the media.

Even Fox News was doing a debate this morning on "what is the best mask to protect yourself?"

”, While it is a channel that has tended to minimize the impact of the coronavirus.

It is customary to say that Republicans do not believe in this disease until they are affected.

Well there, all Republicans see a loved one being affected, and not just any: their leader.

So it's a real shock.

In terms of the coronavirus media, we returned to the level of the months of March / April and the conversation that Donald Trump especially did not want to have in this campaign has become THE unmissable conversation again.

We have seen in the past that some leaders who tested positive, such as Boris Johnson or Jair Bolsonaro, had enjoyed a rise in popularity after falling ill.

Is such a scenario possible for Donald Trump?

Nothing should be excluded, of course, but these comparisons should be tempered.

The examples cited took place at the start of the pandemic, the fear was even more extreme than today where the fears are no longer the same, which could strengthen empathy for the sick leaders.

Then - and most importantly - Donald Trump tests positive 32 days before a presidential election, and while Americans may befriend him for his illness, there is a wedge between that empathy and a shift in intent. vote.

It seems to me difficult to imagine an impact in terms of votes solely on the basis of his illness.

If he recovers quickly, like Jair Bolsonaro, could it be beneficial to him?

Nothing is excluded and everything will be decided in the six days of quarantine that come and on the evolution of the disease on his person.

The instrumentalisation of his recovery is indeed a possible hypothesis, but we cannot foresee the unknown, and we must be pragmatic: Donald Trump is 74 years old and a pronounced overweight, he is a population at double risk, absolutely nothing indicates that he will recover without any health concerns.

On the contrary, if he fell seriously ill, could the election be postponed?

In any case, the election is fixed by an act of Congress as taking place on the first Tuesday after the beginning of November, i.e. for 2020, on November 3.

Nothing will change this date.

Even if Donald Trump were to die, there would be an election that day.

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  • Coronavirus

  • US presidential election

  • United States

  • Donald trump

  • Interview

  • World