New Caledonia: a 2nd referendum, and maybe a 3rd, what for?
Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?
This is the question that will be answered on October 4, and for the second time, some of the inhabitants of New Caledonia.
Theo Rouby / AFP
Text by: Julien Sartre
6 min
This Sunday, October 4, for the second time in two years, the voters registered on the special list will express themselves on the accession of their archipelago to independence from France.
If the result is still “no”, a third consultation is planned, despite the risks of blocking the decolonization process.
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From our special correspondent in Oceania
,
“
Europeans are not going to take up the yam cycle and the Kanaks are not becoming Creoles.
»
In a sentence - a little mysterious for those who are not familiar with New Caledonia, a Melanesian archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean - Matthias Chauchat sums up the current situation of blocking the process of decolonization.
A first referendum where the no won
The professor of public law at the University of New Caledonia is also a long-standing independence activist: he calls for a “yes” vote this Sunday, October 4.
The ambition of the separatists is at least to do better than during the first referendum on independence, in November 2018. That day, the "no" won 56.4% against 43.6% for the " Yes ".
The Matignon and Noumea Accords - which put an end to the civil war of the 1980s - are so made that if the "no" is in the majority again this Sunday, a third consultation will have to be organized in less than two years.
For Matthias Chauchat, this is a scenario to be avoided, because, according to him,
“
all the other assumptions than a 'yes' victory lead to violence.
We are talking about a negotiated independence, not hostile to France: the separatist meetings have the two flags, that of Kanaky and the blue-white-red flag.
We must not arrive at three "no's", because then the "no" will be delegitimized and only chaos will be able to emerge from it.
"
Avoid political deadlock
On this observation, at least, the separatists are joined by the "Loyalists", as the supporters of the maintenance of New Caledonia in France call themselves.
While they are fiercely opposed on all points - and even refuse to negotiate directly since the first referendum in 2018 - the supporters of maintaining New Caledonia in France recognize the impasse that three negative referendums constitute.
After the consultations, nothing is planned and that will be the end of the political process of decolonization.
“
Why wait for three referendums before discussing
?
, wondered Sonia Backès, president of the Southern Province and leader of the non-separatists, on local television.
We must dialogue as quickly as possible and come to an agreement on a new project because we cannot both respect the choice of the ballot box and demand independence all the same, after three negative referendums.
"
If, a few days before the consultation, the various political actors of the ballot are also concerned about the continuation and the future of the decolonization process, it is because the electoral balance of power is frozen in the archipelago.
The bet of the separatists to improve their score or even to snatch the "yes" Sunday evening will be difficult to win: the Kanak people are in the minority in New Caledonia and the special electoral list reflects the demographic balances - and imbalances - of the country.
In a text recently published on the Outremers 360 site, the researcher and specialist in electoral issues, Pierre-Christophe Pantz recalls that the referendum vote in New Caledonia is ethnic, social and geographic.
The first ballot, that of November 2018, had shown to what extent the “yes” vote in favor of independence is above all due to the indigenous people, the Kanak people.
And, this is not without causing problems since
“
the result of the referendum, whatever it may be, will not resolve the essence of the problem in New Caledonia, namely a double electoral impasse.
Firstly, a victory for the separatists should not make us forget that by counting those not having the right to vote in the referendum (around 36,000
), the people "theoretically" opposed to independence, will still constitute at least half of the Caledonian population.
And it is the same if independence fails in the second and third referendum, a not insignificant part of the population, mainly Kanak, will always be viscerally attached to independence
”
, writes the researcher.
The Wallisian and Futunian community as arbiter
The only way for their victory to be certain, the Kanaks must convince at least part of another community to vote “yes”.
It could be the Wallisian and Futunian community.
Historically, and in each election, these Oceanians living in New Caledonia play the role of arbiter and kingmakers.
So far, they have always been seen as favorable to France.
Between 2018 and Sunday's referendum, their position has changed a bit.
And this time, their party, Ocean Awakening, did not give instructions to vote.
In his report of the Council of Ministers, in Paris, Monday, September 28, government spokesman Gabriel Attal announced that the President of the Republic would speak from the French capital
"
regardless of the result of the referendum
"
.
However, in the same sentence, Gabriel Attal took for granted that there would be
"
a third referendum
"
, implying that Sunday's result would be "no".
In the French and even Caledonian political unconscious, the state of mind summarized by Matthias Chauchat is well anchored:
"
No yam cycle for Europeans and no creolization in progress for the Kanaks
"
, words that the teacher borrows from a member (RPCR) of the local Congress.
Only two communities face to face for a while yet.
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