Our reporter Yao Jin
In order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, the People's Bank of China has recently significantly increased its open market operations.
According to statistics, as of September 28 this month, except for September 15, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations.
Among them, in addition to the conventional 7-day reverse repurchase operation, the central bank has also launched a 14-day reverse repurchase operation since September 18, and carried out 14 consecutive days of reverse repurchase operations in 8 working days, with a cumulative amount of 620 billion yuan, operating interest rates Both remained at the level of 2.35%.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that the end of the season and the long holiday are approaching, and the volatility of funds has increased significantly.
This is mainly affected by multiple factors such as the bank's quarter-end assessment, the increase in demand for cash withdrawals before the holiday, the change in the pace of issuance of interest rate bonds, and the increase in fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter, and the overall compliance with seasonality.
It can be seen that the central bank has significantly increased its open market operations through the "7+14" reverse repurchase operation collocation in the near future, aiming to guide the stable cross-season of funds.
Guosen Futures related personnel believe that the liquidity demand of banks has risen rapidly before the holiday, and normal currency is difficult to meet market demand, which will bring greater pressure to the market.
Last week, the central bank increased the scale of reverse repurchase, which quickly eased the pressure on short-term money demand. The Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) declined rapidly overnight, and the medium and long-term interest rates also remained relatively stable.
In addition, the central bank has also supplemented medium- and long-term liquidity through incremental renewal of medium-term lending facilities (MLF).
In September, the MLF increment continued to be 600 billion yuan, with a net increase of 400 billion yuan. The scale of MLF operations expanded for two consecutive months.
"The main reason why the scale of MLF operations has expanded for two consecutive months is that due to the significant pressure drop in structural deposits, the pressure on banks' medium and long-term liquidity has increased significantly." Wang Qing said.
Regarding "price" regulation, the central bank still focuses on stabilizing market expectations.
The MLF winning bid rate on September 15 was 2.95%, the same as in July.
Since May, the loan market quote rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for five consecutive months.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that in order to maintain the stability of market expectations and continue to support the recovery of the real economy, while preventing funds from idling arbitrage or excessive liquidity from entering the real estate market, LPR remained unchanged in line with expectations.
However, the fact that the LPR remains unchanged does not mean that the financing costs of entities will no longer decrease.
Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, previously stated that LPR and loan interest rates are not a simple correspondence. With the further release of the potential of LPR reform to promote lower loan interest rates, it is expected that subsequent corporate loan interest rates will fall further.
Statistics show that in the first seven months of this year, the financial sector has reduced the burden of market players by more than 870 billion yuan, of which interest rates have been reduced by 470 billion yuan.
Since the financial system will give 1.5 trillion yuan to the real economy throughout the year, the rate of interest reduction will reach 930 billion yuan, which means that the next five months will continue to reduce the interest rate by 460 billion yuan.
"Commercial banks use methods such as reducing or even canceling fees, increasing credit loans to reduce mortgage guarantee links, etc., to benefit enterprises. These will ultimately drive down corporate financing costs and further improve the efficiency of financial services." Xinwang Bank's chief researcher Dong Ximiao believes.