Geography is destiny. Why was the powder barrel of the South Caucasus ignited again?

　　(International observation) Geography is destiny. Why was the powder barrel of the South Caucasus lit again?

　　China News Service, Nur-Sultan, September 29th, title: Geography is destiny, why was the gunpowder barrel of the South Caucasus lit again?

　　China News Agency reporter Wen Longjie

　　The world has not yet emerged from the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the sound of artillery in the Eurasian junction has attracted the attention of countries around the world: Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in the Naka region on the 27th local time, and have caused casualties.

　　The cause of the conflict is complicated and difficult to understand. Ya and Ajun accused the other party of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.

Although there have been constant minor frictions in the area, both sides used heavy weapons this time, and the casualties and losses were also high.

　　At present, the two countries have not shown each other's weakness, and have put on a "war" trend.

The Prime Minister of Armenia announced the implementation of martial law and general military mobilization throughout the country on the 27th.

The President of Azerbaijan also signed a decree on the same day, declaring the country into a state of war and imposing martial law.

　　In fact, "NAGA" is an old problem.

The area was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijan during the Soviet period, and most of its residents were Armenians.

In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, leading to conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenians in the state.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in a battle for Nagorny, and Armenia occupied Nagorny and its surrounding parts of Azerbaijan.

In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue, and armed conflicts between the two countries have occurred from time to time.

　　Why do "old problems" give rise to new conflicts?

Some analysts believe that the epidemic has caused protruding domestic economic and social contradictions between the two countries, the people's "patience" has decreased, and friction in conflict areas has gradually erupted into conflict.

Other analysts believe that it is related to the intervention of forces outside the region.

　　Like all problems, the cause of conflict is a "complex."

However, it should be pointed out that the lack of crisis management and control mechanisms and the existence of security governance deficits are factors that cannot be ignored that led to the outbreak of this conflict in the region.

　　Since the outbreak of the conflict on the 27th, the United Nations, Russia, Turkey, the United States, the European Union, NATO and countries in the Central Asian region have all expressed "serious concern" and called on both sides to stop fighting immediately.

　　However, the statements of all parties cannot play a substantial role in crisis control.

As Olesja Vatanyan, a researcher at the International Crisis Organization, pointed out directly, “One of the main reasons for the current escalation is the lack of any active international mediation between the two parties in the past few weeks.” This is precisely where the region exists. A manifestation of the security governance deficit.

　　Why is there a security governance deficit?

This is related to the geographical location of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

　　The South Caucasus region where Asia and Algeria are located is known as the "gunpowder barrel".

There are such regions in the world, where wars are frequent because of their special geographical locations and the special geopolitical value of "a place where soldiers must contend."

The South Caucasus is located at the boundary of the Eurasian continent. It is one of the most historical, cultural and ethnically diverse regions in the world, and it is rich in energy.

Historically, the Tsarist Russia and Austro-Hungarian empires have been fighting here for a long time.

　　Due to being "coveted" and "cared for" by all parties, the internal problems of such regions are often entangled with external forces.

At the same time, because this type of region is on the fringe of the major power bodies, it is difficult for all parties to try to control it.

If the parties do not cooperate, there will be no strong force to provide a stable order in the region, and a security deficit will be formed.

During the Soviet period, Armenia and Azerbaijan joined the Soviet Union as member republics.

The Soviet Union became the only power to dominate the affairs of the region, and it solved this dilemma.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, this dilemma reappeared.

　　Therefore, despite the outbreak of the conflict, although many international organizations and countries expressed concern, they did not achieve results: the United States and Europe are far apart, and the Central Asian countries lack influence on both sides of the conflict, and Russia and Turkey, which can directly influence the conflict, are in Asia, There are differences between the two countries.

This is why the Russian Foreign Minister immediately had a telephone discussion with Turkey after the conflict broke out.

　　The experience of the history of international relations shows that it is almost impossible to quell conflicts by sorting out the historical accounts between Asia and Algeria, and to fill the region’s security governance deficit or permit period through cooperation with countries outside the region.

Of course, the premise is that the relevant countries have the will in this regard.

(Finish)