"Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in permanent tension since 1988"

Video of the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan -

• Since Sunday evening, Nagorno-Karabakh, an area between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has been at war.

• The origins of the tensions in this conflict zone go back decades, and the conflict does not appear to end in the future.

• Jean de Gliniasty, IRIS specialist in the former Soviet space, explains the stakes for 

  20 Minutes

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Since this Sunday, it is again war in Nagorno-Karabakh, a border area between Armenia and Azerbaijan and source of tensions between the two countries.

The clashes have already killed dozens of people, and this Tuesday afternoon, Armenia announced that one of its military planes had been shot down by a Turkish F-16.

To better understand what is happening, what are the sources but also the stakes of such an international conflict,

interviewed Jean de Gliniasty, specialist of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) around Russian issues. and the former Soviet space.

When do the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan date back?

In 1988, the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani territory, claimed independence.

The population there is predominantly Armenian and takes advantage of a tattered USSR without a strong geopolitical base on the region to secede and join up with Armenia.

Azerbaijan is against it.

Then began a war between the two countries which would last six years, until a ceasefire in 1994 after more than 30,000 dead.

This ceasefire is objectively very unequal and largely in favor of Armenia, which “confiscates” if we can say 20% of the territory of Azerbaijan including Nagorno-Karabakh, which has also become the border between two countries.

Azerbaijan has never tolerated this decision and since then many tensions regularly arise between the two countries.

We can even speak of a permanent tension between the two, the head of state of Azerbaijan making the reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh a stake and a national quest, interspersed with stronger explosive peaks, as is the case currently.

Generally, Russia is responsible for playing the policeman between the two and tempering the ardor.

In 2016, conflicts erupted for four days before Russia intervened.

Moscow has interests in both countries and therefore seeks to have a neutral and peaceful role as much as possible.

What has happened lately?

It is difficult to know which country really started hostilities.

Anyway, this Sunday, troops from Azerbaijan entered Nagorno-Karabakh, opposing Armenian troops.

Armenia then declared martial law and launched the mobilization of any man able to fight.

It has been a few months since we could see an excess of tension, but it is difficult to determine a trigger: as previously said, the two nations are in permanent conflict, and do not really need a motive to go into hostilities, so much the current situation is not suitable.

Each country is convinced to be within its proper international law.

On the one hand, the self-determination of the peoples clearly leans in favor of Armenia and at the same time, the principle of territorial integrity goes in the direction of Azerbaijan, which should recover the territories lost in 1994.

What is the balance of power between the two countries?

There is a real imbalance of forces.

Azerbaijan is a rich country with a very well equipped army and has a much larger population - and therefore a potential army.

The advantage of the Armenians is that the country has a Russian base and that they are part of the organization of the collective security treaty with Russia, which if it does not like to take sides between the two countries, has sworn to protect Armenian territory and is keen on its military base.

For the moment, Russia kicks in and calls for a cease-fire, without really taking the side of Armenia.

But Azerbaijan also has a strong ally, Turkey, which has clearly sided with this country and supports it both militarily and diplomatically.

Usually, in the event of a major geopolitical disagreement between Russia and Turkey, the two countries communicate and always end up reaching an agreement.

So we can be sure that at this very moment, Turks and Russians must speak intensely.

Should this conflict therefore find a diplomatic outcome?

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan will always listen to what the Russians say - and now Turkey.

To see how much the two powers will want to arbitrate.

But Russia has no interest in seeing the situation ignite between two - three even with Turkey - allies, in a strategic region for her.

What is certain is that if we end up with yet another 1994 status quo, that will not solve anything, the two countries will always be in permanent tension and conflicts of this kind will continue to reappear.

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