China News Service, September 28, reported comprehensively that decades of territorial disputes have left Armenia and Azerbaijan in a state of hostility for a long time.
On the 27th, a new round of conflict between the two countries in the Nagorno-Karabakh region has caused at least 24 deaths and more than 100 injuries as of press time, which has aroused international concern.
At present, both countries have declared that they have entered a "wartime state."
The lack of international mediation is one of the main reasons for the escalation of the conflict. Olesja Vatanyan, a researcher at the International Crisis Organization, analyzed: "We are only one step away from a large-scale war."
On September 27, local time, a new round of conflict broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.
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Curfew and martial law: the Caucasus is full of war clouds
The armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively stated on the 27th that the other side took the lead in launching military provocations in the Naka region, and they were forced to fight back, which led to the conflict.
Armenia claimed that it shot down two helicopters and three drones of the Arab side and destroyed three other tanks.
The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan confirmed the loss of a helicopter, but stated that the crew survived, and reported that it had "destroyed" 12 air defense systems in Armenia, denying other losses reported by Armenia.
Azerbaijan also claimed that the occupation of a strategically significant mountain area would help control traffic and communication between related areas.
When Azerbaijani President Aliyev delivered a televised speech on the 27th, he vowed to defeat the Armenian army, stating "I believe that our counter-offensive will succeed and end injustice and end the 30-year occupation."
Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan stated that Azerbaijan "declared war on Armenia again" and that "we are on the brink of full-scale war in the South Caucasus, and there may be unpredictable consequences."
At present, Armenia and the Naka region have declared martial law and military mobilization, while Azerbaijan has declared military control and curfews in large cities.
On September 27, local time, a new round of conflict broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.
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"War is about to reappear"?
"We are only one step away from a large-scale war," said Olesja Vatanyan, a researcher at the International Crisis Organization.
She said, “One of the main reasons for the current escalation is that the two sides have lacked any active international mediation in the past few weeks.”
"War is about to return." Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said on social media, "It is time for Russia, France, and the United States, individually or jointly, to stop the situation from continuing to ferment."
Israel’s "Jerusalem Post" analyzed that considering the strategic bias of the United States and the EU’s performance on many regional issues such as the Syrian issue, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey may be more hopeful to play a mediating role in this conflict.
It is not clear how the situation will develop, but the conflict may disturb the situation in the surrounding areas.
On September 27, local time, a new round of conflict broke out in Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and taking the lead in launching a military offensive.
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Many concerns, Turkey's intervention to become a "spoiler"?
UN Secretary-General Guterres said that he was "extremely concerned" about the Ya-A conflict, calling on both sides to stop fighting and return to the negotiating table.
France, Germany, Italy and the European Union have urged both sides to "immediately cease fire."
The US State Department stated that it has contacted the two countries and urged both parties to "use existing direct communications to avoid further escalation."
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the conflict with the Prime Minister of Armenia and called for an "end of hostilities."
But Azerbaijan’s ally, Turkey, criticized Armenia, saying it would “fully support” Azerbaijan.
Turkish President Erdogan said on social media, “Turkey will continue to provide support to the Azerbaijani brothers.”
Harutyyanyan, the leader of the local government in the Naka region, said that Turkey is providing Azerbaijan with mercenaries and warplanes, which shows that "the conflict has exceeded the scope of the Naka region."
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) analyzed and pointed out that as early as August 2020, the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan stated that with the help of the Turkish military, Azerbaijan would perform its "sacred duty", that is, regain its lost territory.
The BBC believes that the conflict between Asia and Afghanistan on September 27 was "the most serious regional conflict in recent years," and both sides used heavy weapons.
Turkey's strong support may play an inspiring effect on Azerbaijan.
The Israeli "Jerusalem Post" analyzed that it is not yet clear how the situation will develop, but Turkey may use the Asian-Arab conflict to intervene more in the Syrian issue and the Iraqi issue, and trigger conflicts with Russia and Iran.
The Naka region is located in southwestern Azerbaijan, and its residents are mostly Armenians.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out to fight for the Naka region. Armenia occupied Naka and the surrounding part of the territory that was originally Azerbaijan.
In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue, and armed conflicts between the two countries have occurred from time to time.