Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 28. The "Economic Information Daily" published a report written by Wang Jing on the 28th, "Britain's economic outlook is worrying amidst the divergence of the Brexit negotiations."
The summary of the article is as follows:
The UK and the EU are about to hold a new round of negotiations on their trade relations.
The analysis pointed out that the current major differences between the UK and the EU are difficult to resolve. The risk of "no-deal Brexit" is still high. Coupled with the second wave of new crown epidemic in Europe, the UK's economic prospects are facing huge uncertainty.
Multiple differences are difficult to resolve
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator in charge of the UK’s “Brexit” affairs, said after the eighth round of trade negotiations with the UK this month that the EU has shown flexibility in the face of UK requirements in multiple areas. Sex.
However, the UK has not treated the EU’s basic principles and interests in a reciprocal manner.
There are still major differences in areas involving the major interests of the EU.
The EU stated that it will prepare for the UK’s “no-deal Brexit” at the end of this year.
The negotiation situation between Britain and Europe has deteriorated further recently.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said earlier this month that he intends to overturn some of the provisions of the "Brexit" agreement signed in January when the United Kingdom exited the European Union, and said that a new law is needed to protect free trade within the United Kingdom.
The European Union asked Britain to cancel this plan to disrupt the "Brexit" agreement as soon as possible, but the British side rejected it.
The European Commission stated that it is preparing for the hasty end of the UK's "Brexit". If London continues to advance the proposed legislation, it will "extremely seriously violate" the previously reached "Brexit" agreement.
"No-deal Brexit" may cause serious losses
Johnson has previously stated that he must reach an agreement with the EU on the post-Brexit relationship before October 15, or he will choose a “no-deal Brexit”.
He believes that the UK can prosper and develop even if it leaves the European Union directly, especially by negotiating new trade agreements with countries around the world.
However, some analysts pointed out that exit without agreement may still lead to chaos in border activities and cause serious economic consequences.
This situation will have a profound impact both domestically and internationally.
The British minister in charge of "Brexit" trade relations negotiations, Michael Gove, previously stated that if Britain and Europe do not reach an agreement within this year, as many as 7,000 trucks will line up at the English Channel port from next year, waiting to pass. , Their entry into France on the other side may be delayed by 2 days, affecting the import and export of important materials between Britain and Europe.
A recent research report published by a British institution shows that, in the long run, the loss of a "no-deal Brexit" to the British economy will be three times the loss caused by the new crown epidemic.
The agency predicts that, compared to the current level, the impact of "no-deal Brexit" on the UK's GDP within 15 years will be 5.7%, while the impact of the epidemic will be 2.1%.
The economic outlook is uncertain
The second wave of epidemics in Europe may further damage the economy.
The European Union raised its alert on the epidemic last week, saying that the current situation in many member states is more serious than the peak of the epidemic in the spring.
The EU calls on member states to "immediately" strengthen control measures to deal with the rebound of the epidemic.
The domestic situation in the UK is also very severe.
Johnson announced a series of new epidemic prevention measures on the 22nd, including requiring bars and restaurants to close in advance and recommending people to work from home.
Investors worry that the new restrictions may cause a sharp slowdown in UK economic growth.
The German research company Gefkay Group recently released survey results showing that British consumer confidence rose to the highest level since the March epidemic triggered the “closure” in September, but it is still far below the level before the epidemic.
Reuters pointed out that the British government announced on the 22nd that the epidemic prevention measures would be tightened, and the Gefco investigation was completed earlier than this time.
Many economists interviewed by Reuters believe that the UK consumer confidence index has remained unchanged from the previous month.
Reuters reported that despite the rebound in British consumer spending since April and the current total retail sales are even higher than before the epidemic, many economists expect the unemployment rate in the UK to continue to rise and remain cautious about the economic outlook.